Friday may or may not be Uncle Mo Decision Day, but regardless of what happens there (is it all a PR stunt? Who can say?), this year’s Kentucky Oaks should be a good one. If it rains, there are plenty of high Tomlinsons in the field, but only Holy Heavens has an actual win in the mud (although I don’t see her as a major factor if the track is fast).
For some reason, I have been finding this race considerably more difficult than the Kentucky Derby to handicap – partially because these fillies seem to be made of sterner stuff than many of their male counterparts, and partially because I’m finding a lot to like – I’ve changed my picks time and again this year. I’ve tried various combinations of the strong favorites and interesting longshots, and have also entertained an all-longshot ticket, simply because each one of the longshots in question has something legitimate to recommend her.
That’s not to say I’ve tried to use all the longer shots – far from it – but those I keep dithering on (specifically, Her Smile and Daisy Devine, both name-checked again below since I couldn’t leave them out) seem dangerous.
Without further ado, the Kentucky Oaks field, and predictions:
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | ML odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joyful Victory | Mike Smith | Larry Jones | 5-2 |
| The Canadian-bred Larry Jones trainee looks very strong indeed here; I don’t see the rail being a huge issue for her, and she is a deserving favorite. | ||||
| 2 | Lilacs and Lace | Javier Castellano | John Terranova | 12-1 |
| Upset winner of the Ashland won’t be nearly as under the radar here; very attractive pedigree: by Flower Alley, out of a Seattle Slew mare. | ||||
| 3 | Summer Soiree | Gabriel Saez | Larry JonesL | 5-1 |
| Another Larry Jones trainee; she has been working well and looks to be a serious threat; she knows how to win. | ||||
| 4 | Kathmanblu | Julien Leparoux | Kenny McPeek | 4-1 |
| She was third behind Lilacs and Lace last time out, but had three consecutive wins before that (including one at Churchill Downs). I like Julien Leparoux at this track, and I expect a good performance. | ||||
| 5 | Suave Voir Faire | Miguel Mena | D. Michael Smithwick, Jr. | 50-1 |
| She’s been in the money behind some of the best fillies here, but seems just a notch below. | ||||
| 6 | Zazu | Joel Rosario | John Sadler | 4-1 |
| Like Joyful Victory, she’s by Tapit and she’s a better filly than her record suggests – she has several near-misses. Worth keeping an eye on. | ||||
| 7 | Her Smile | Garrett Gomez | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 |
| Newly owned by Bobby Flay, she may just be figuring things out at the right time – and at a price. | ||||
| 8 | Bouquet Booth | Steve Margolis | 20-1 | |
| Another Flower Alley filly, but one who has finished a little further back to some of this company. | ||||
| 9 | Daisy Devine | James Graham | Andrew McKeever | 20-1 |
| Won the Fair Grounds Oaks , which seems to be the way to do well in its counterpart here; her odds seem unlikely to stay this attractive. Note: she cost $5500. Nice investment, in any instance. | ||||
| 10 | Street Storm | Shaun Bridgmohan | Steve Margolis | 50-1 |
| Her morning line odds seem appropriate enough. | ||||
| 11 | Holy Heavens | Kent Desormeaux | Bernard Chatters | 50-1 |
| Ditto that. | ||||
| 12 | Plum Pretty | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 5-1 |
| Yes, she won her last race by 25 lengths and is very attractively bred, but she didn’t face much – is she just coming into her own? | ||||
| 13 | St. John’s River | Rosie Napravnik | Andrew Leggio, Jr. | 30-1 |
| Her only win came with Rosie Napravnik aboard – will her return to the saddle restore some racing luck? | ||||
Predictions: 1) Joyful Victory 2) Plum Pretty 3) Daisy Devine
Longshot win bets: Her Smile and/or Daisy Devine
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