It’s that time of year again! As ever, I don’t think there is a requirement for there to be twenty horses again this year, but twenty there are, so let’s have a look (and make sure to follow @superfecta on Twitter for more):
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Daddy Long Legs | Aidan O’Brien | Colm O’Donoghue | 30-1 |
| He has the distance foundation and he’s probably the least-likely horse in the field to be compromised by this post position, given his grass-racing background, but he did not seem to love Churchill Downs when he was here before; the surface remains a question mark. | ||||
| 2. | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Jon Court | 50-1 |
| I think Jon Court is a great jockey and it’s nice to see him get a Derby mount, but it’s hard to rank Optimizer up with even the middle ranks of this field. | ||||
| 3. | Take Charge Indy | Patrick Byrne | Calvin Borel | 15-1 |
| He had everything go his way when he won the Florida Derby, and he has Calvin Borel in the irons – and, more importantly, near the rail – but with a field this size, I don’t see him getting lucky again here. | ||||
| 4. | Union Rags | Michael Matz | Julien Leparoux | 9-2 |
| I would have preferred to see him a little further out and I still worry a bit about his pedigree for the distance, but he always seems to want more; I’d never bet against Julien Leparoux at Churchill Downs, though, and he is my ‘local’ horse, so I’m hoping for a good result. And you should go watch his documentary (not just because I’m in it)! | ||||
| 5. | Dullahan | Dale Romans | Kent Desormeaux | 8-1 |
| Mine That Bird’s little half-brother tries to follow in his footsteps, but the surface switch is a question mark – even if recent history suggests that it’s no big deal. | ||||
| 6. | Bodemeister | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 4-1 |
| Given Bob Baffert’s heart attack in Dubai, it’s only natural to root for him here, especially with a horse named after his young son, but while Bodemeister looks like he’s growing into a very nice horse indeed, it might be happening a bit too late for this race. I expect to see him as a major threat later this year, and he could well be in the money. | ||||
| 7. | Rousing Sermon | Jerry Hollendorfer | Jose Lezcano | 50-1 |
| He just seems like a solid G2-G3 horse, I can’t see him being a factor here. | ||||
| 8. | Creative Cause | Mike Harrington | Joel Rosario | 12-1 |
| He has the right breeding and a good foundation, and I expect to see him as a contender. | ||||
| 9. | Trinniberg | Bisnath Parboo | Willie Martinez | 50-1 |
| He looks like a sprinter, and a very good one too; I’d love to see him in a shorter race. | ||||
| 10. | Daddy Nose Best | Steve Asmussen | Garrett Gomez | 15-1 |
| Another who seems more comfortable on turf, although his pedigree could keep him in contention. | ||||
| 11. | Alpha | Kiaran McLaughlin | Rajiv Maragh | 15-1 |
| He seems to be flying under the radar, but he could be a serious threat; do not discount him. | ||||
| 12. | Prospective | Mark Casse | Luis Contreras | 30-1 |
| His last-place finish in the Juvenile does not bode well for his chances here; seems overmatched. | ||||
| 13. | Went the Day Well | Graham Motion | John Velazquez | 20-1 |
| He’s the grass-to-dirt horse to back in my opinion; he seems to improve a bit each time out, although he’s probably more likely to hit the board than finish in front. | ||||
| 14. | Hansen | Mike Maker | Ramon Dominguez | 10-1 |
| I wish they would allow him his blue mane and tail, but even without them, he has a fine chance if he avoids an early speed duel; his post position seems a bit better for him in that regard, but early speed is a concern. | ||||
| 15. | Gemologist | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 6-1 |
| This horse should be getting geek cred for his dam’s name referencing The Dark Crystal, and he should be getting racing cred for his undefeated record. I would be thrilled if he went off at 6-1. | ||||
| 16. | El Padrino | Todd Pletcher | Rafael Bejarano | 20-1 |
| Like Union Rags, he had an unfortunate Florida Derby, but on paper, he looks good. Will he have the luck? | ||||
| 17. | Done Talking | Hamilton Smith | Sheldon Russell | 50-1 |
| He seems unlikely to step up to this level of competition. | ||||
| 18. | Sabercat | Steve Asmussen | Corey Nakatani | 30-1 |
| I can’t see him featuring much beyond the start. | ||||
| 19. | I’ll Have Another | Doug O’Neill | Martin Gutierrez | 12-1 |
| I like this horse a lot, though it’s a tough field – he’s my longshot and I would not be surprised to see him near the winner’s circle. | ||||
| 20. | Liaison | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 50-1 |
| I haven’t been that impressed by his efforts this year and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday. | ||||
Prediction: Union Rags, Gemologist, Hansen, Creative Cause
Longshot: I’ll Have Another/Alpha
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