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Preakness 2012: On the Record

Has it really only been two weeks since the Kentucky Derby? Given the way the dates fall this year, it seems as if it’s been longer (though presumably the trainers wish they had a bit more time).  But the Preakness is indeed upon us, and I humbly offer the following thoughts:

PP Horse Trainer Jockey ML Odds
1. Tiger Walk Ignacio Correas, IV Kent Desormeaux Ramon Dominguez 30-1
Ran in the Wood Memorial (rather behind the better horses). Can’t see him being a huge factor here.
2. Teeth of the Dog Michael Matz Joe Bravo 15-1
I doubt Matz thinks of this horse as the strongest in his barn, although he could develop into a solid G2 prospect.
3. Pretension Christopher W. Grove Javier Santiago 30-1
Not today (or any other against this level of competition).
4. Zetterholm Rick Dutrow Junior Alvarado 20-1
Very lightly raced, but perhaps the most interesting of the new shooters.
5. Went the Day Well Graham Motion John R. Velazquez 6-1
While the Belmont looks tailor-made for him, he’s got a great shot here as well, and I fully expect to see him in the picture at the finish.
6. Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 6-1
Had one of the worst trips in the Derby but should not have as much ground to make up here – presuming he’s not still tired, he’s a strong threat.
7. Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 8-5
The quick turnaround is a lot to ask after his Derby performance, but he’s the real deal.
8. Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen Julien Leparoux 12-1
I didn’t love him going into the Derby, but he may be happy to have Leparoux back on board. Still expect to see him behind the first group of finishers.
9. I’ll Have Another Doug O’Neill Mario Gutierrez 5-2
I can’t complain when my longshot pick wins the Derby and replenishes my TwinSpires account. Again, I’m a fan of his pedigree, I love his association with Lava Man and I expect he’ll win or be in the money here.
10. Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas Corey Nakatani 30-1
Again, I wasn’t a fan before the Derby, and I can’t see him winning here either.
11. Cozzetti Dale Romans Jose Lezcano 30-1
Very nice pedigree, but it hasn’t translated to much success on the track yet.

Prediction: Bodemeister, Went the Day Well, I’ll Have Another, Creative Cause
Longshot: Went the Day Well
(insofar as he counts as a longshot)

1 comment to Preakness 2012: On the Record

  • Read Railbird Corner, the jockey’s mentor’s blog, for more on what having Gutierrez winning a few big stake races in America, has done for the local scene. All that remains is the fitting of the slipper.

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