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2009 Kentucky Derby: On the Record

It’s official – I’ve (almost) made some decisions. Without further ado, here is your official Superfecta Kentucky Derby handicapping exercise for 2009 – as ever, with the note that my recent successes with Smarty Jones and Barbaro are tempered by the fact that my last correctly-predicted winner was Winning Colors in 1988. You have been warned.

West Side Bernie
Upside: Seems to be improving, has some good seasoning. Second to I Want Revenge last time out.
Downside: Not sure he wants the distance – or if he’s fast enough

2) Musket Man
Upside: Keeps looking better and better in retrospect
Downside: Not a huge fan of jockey Eibar Coa

3) Mr. Hot Stuff
Upside: I like trainer Eoin Harty
Downside: Looks like a sprinter/miler

4) Advice
Upside: Nice move in his last race
Downside: Polytrack specialist

5) Hold Me Back
Upside: Not among the very best, but could hit the board
Downside: Does he also prefer Polytrack?

6) Friesan Fire
Upside: Love the breeding, love his versatility
Downside: Layoff could be a downside – or could leave him fresh

7) Papa Clem
Upside: Love his recent old-school workout and everything else
Downside: Rain?

8) Mine That Bird
Upside: Can win…
Downside: …but not in this company

9) Join in the Dance
Upside: Still looking for one
Downside: Rabbit

10) Regal Ransom
Upside: Love Alan Garcia on just about anything
Downside: UAE form still a question mark

11) Chocolate Candy
Upside: Great breeding, great form in California
Downside: First time on real dirt; wet track might not suit

12) General Quarters
Upside: Great story, continual improvement, love switch to Julien Leparoux
Downside: Is he fast enough?

13) I Want Revenge
Upside: Looks very, very tough to beat; like Joe Talamo
Downside: Mullins et al. do not appeal

14) Atomic Rain
Upside: Let me know when you find one
Downside: Yes

15) Dunkirk
Upside: Florida Derby performance; high Tomlinson rating
Downside: Curlin couldn’t do it with so few races

16) Pioneerof the Nile
Upside: California record; possibility that Bode Baffert will sing in the winner’s circle
Downside: Low Beyers – and the dirt question

17) Summer Bird
Upside: I like his pedigree…
Downside: …but not on 3 lifetime starts

18) Nowhere to Hide
Upside: Um…Nick Zito surprise? Likes an off track?
Downside: Seems entirely outclassed

19) Desert Party
Upside: Breeding, previous record
Downside: What did he beat in Dubai?

20) Flying Private
Upside: *crickets*
Downside: Indeed

Preferences: I’d love to see a Friesan Fire/Papa Clem/Chocolate Candy/General Quarters superfecta.
Prediction – dry track: I Want Revenge/Friesan Fire/Papa Clem/General Quarters
Prediction – wet track: Friesan Fire/General Quarters/Dunkirk/I Want Revenge

Wagering to be determined tomorrow, probably en route to the Derby party I’ll be attending – check back later today for some semi-liveblogging of Kentucky Oaks day!

1 comment to 2009 Kentucky Derby: On the Record

  • kevin stafford

    Great stuff, Lisa!

    Guess us meager bankroll players are forced into trifecta wagering by virtue of no $.10 superfecta wagering (how dare they mock you??)

    I like I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire here on top.

    Underneath them I’m toying with Dunkirk, Papa Clem, and Pioneer of the Nile.

    For the bottom of the ticket, I’m considering Hold Me Back and the Dubai duo.

    Would’ve thought about Musket Man and “cripped out” Bernie, but not from those post positions.

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