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The Superfecta Derby Top Ten

The Wood Memorial was billed as the race in which the real War Pass would return, and I believe he did. Challenged for the lead by Inner Light (Court Vision’s rabbit), he ran fast early fractions but gamely hung on for second (in ever slower fractions) at what looked like an uncomfortable distance for him. At a mile, he’d have been an easy winner. Even loose on the lead in the Derby, I see him being passed at the quarter pole. Tale of Ekati’s win (right) reaffirmed my faith in his talent; while he’s no lock on Derby Day, he seems to be maturing nicely and I would imagine he’s got a nice season ahead of him.

Colonel John stamped himself as the best in the West in the Santa Anita Derby; he ran a great race and was flying at the end, but the question remains — how will he take to a conventional dirt track? If he likes it, he’ll be a serious threat in the Derby.

Denis of Cork is still Derby-bound despite his very disappointing showing in the Illinois Derby, although he could miss the boat if it comes down to graded earnings. Recapturetheglory earned the weekend’s highest 3-year-old Beyer in defeating him, but I’m not sure I’m ready to add him to my list — while I have a lot of respect for his connections (the same as those of Risen Star, who sits atop my ‘should’ve won a Triple Crown’ list), I’m not sure what he really beat, given the way the race turned out.

All told, I am in almost complete agreement with the Los Angeles Times — this year’s Derby is shaping up as a full field with a few very legitimate contenders and a lot of no-hopers. I would add a few more to the mix, though; a number of horses are really flying under the radar.

This week’s Superfecta Derby Top Ten:

  • Pyro – Still no major mistakes – next up, the Blue Grass
  • Big Brown – It’s all about the feet (with a little ‘experience’ thrown in)
  • Colonel John – Sire Tiznow loved real dirt
  • Tomcito – I saw a lot to like in the Florida Derby, earnings might be a question
  • Tale of Ekati – Nice finish in the Wood
  • Visionaire – Also in for the Blue Grass, seems to be in great shape
  • Big Truck – Will Barclay Tagg have two?
  • Recapturetheglory – nice Beyer in his Illinois Derby upset
  • Smooth Air – A good showing in the Florida Derby may mean a lot, in retrospect
  • War Pass – He’s only on this list because he could be dangerous if he’s allowed the lead, but I really don’t see him in the winner’s circle at the Derby distance

Bet on the Kentucky Derby

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