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Live Longshots

After yesterday’s musical interlude, you’re no doubt waiting expectantly for a full race-by-race analysis. Well, with today being my last day at Penn Vet, you’ll have to wait a little bit longer. But don’t despair, today brings you some of my (hopefully) live longshots for each race.

Filly & Mare Sprint
With La Traviata in this race, it makes it a very interesting betting race since she’s such a prohibitive favorite. It means that Wild Gams (who we already know loves Monmouth) and Baroness Thatcher could both go off at long odds — at least considerably longer odds than they might otherwise.

Juvenile Turf
Old Man Buck is now pointed to the Juvenile rather than the Juvenile Turf, otherwise I would happily pick him in this category. I generally avoid Todd Pletcher’s horses in the Breeders’ Cup, but I’ll pick The Leopard as my longshot (and no, not just because Leopard comes out the same day).

Dirt Mile
Lewis Michael is my official longshot for this race; Corinthian could be back in form as well, but he won’t be at nearly as long a price. If the bettors all go off Discreet Cat, it’s entirely possible he’d be worth some investm ent as well.

Juvenile Fillies
A to the Croft will have blinkers for the first time and I like her a lot; I think there’s been so much buzz about Smarty Deb and her feel-good story that she won’t be quite the same value (but should not be overlooked).

Old Man Buck should be in here at a good price; he may not win, but I can easily see him hitting the board behind Tale of Ekati. Salute the Sarge (a half-brother to Chelokee) could offer some value as well. And if you want to know how Tale of Ekati got his name, check out Diamond: The History of a Cold-Blooded Love Affair. It gets complicated!

Filly & Mare Turf
This should be a great race with some solid favorites in Nashoba’s Key and Precious Kitten; given her inconsistency of late, Honey Ryder could have long odds. If it does indeed rain Saturday, I may give an edge to the Europeans — I might consider Timarwa if it comes up soft.

Idiot Proof has set a record at Monmouth already; Kelly’s Landing won the Dubai Golden Shaheen and has been quiet since, but he clearly loves this distance. The long layoff should translate to longer odds.

Purim is my longshot, but this is a great field; if Silent Name and/or Remarkable News come up with silly odds too, I’ll be putting a bit in those buckets as well.

I think Unbridled Belle is going to be overlooked and a good value (despite her good record of late); Teammate still needs a G1 win and could get it here.

I have just one sentimental longshot on the day — Better Talk Now. He’s updated his MySpace page to let us know he’s rested and ready.

Tiago is flying completely under the radar and seems to be improving. Don’t count him out. Of course, if you want to put money on George Washington in this race, be my guest!

Check back starting tomorrow for a full analysis of each race now that the post positions are set

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