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Breeders’ Cup Analysis: Distaff

Next up: the Emirates Airlines Distaff:

Post Horse Trainer Jockey Odds
1 Balance David Hofmans Victor Espinoza 20-1
2 Prop Me Up Greg Sacco Joe Bravo 50-1
3 Tough Tiz’s Sis Bob Baffert Mike Smith 20-1
4 Ginger Punch Bobby Frankel Rafael Bejarano 7-2
5 Lady Joanne Carl Nafzger Calvin Borel 6-1
6 Bear Now Reade Baker Jerry Baird 15-1
7 Lear’s Princess Kiaran McLaughlin Eibar Coa 6-1
8 Octave Todd Pletcher Garrett Gomez 10-1
9 Teammate H. Allen Jerkens Cornelio Velasquez 30-1
10 Indian Vale Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 3-1
11 Unbridled Belle Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez 9-2
12 Hystericalady Jerry Hollendorfer Eddie Castro 8-1

Balance seems to prefer running in California and her form of late is unremarkable. Prop Me Up is a nice local runner, but I don’t see her as a factor in this company. Tough Tiz’s Sis may find the distance a bit much for her. Ginger Punch has really come into her own lately, but I think the distance is a question for her as well. Lady Joanne is a tough, consistent runner. Bear Now is also improving at the right time. I’d prefer Lear’s Princess on turf. I think Octave is outmatched here. Teammate is always a threat and is almost ‘due’ a G1. Indian Vale is not quite as talented as her stablemate Unbridled Belle who has done nothing wrong lately, but has the advantage of a slightly better post position. Hystericalady likes Monmouth, but the distance and the post position are downsides for her.
Prediction: Unbridled Belle, Teammate, Ginger Punch

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