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Kentucky Derby 2008: On the Record | Superfectablog v3.0

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June: Fairy Chant
b. 1937
Why: A champion at 3 and 4, Fairy Chant won the Beldame twice. She was in the money for 26 of her 42 races.

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Kentucky Derby 2008: On the Record

With the Derby post positions announced (and the Kentucky Derby odds beginning to move), it’s time to go on the record. I’ve been poring over the DRF’s PPs for the Derby; I like the Moss Pace Figures version. Here are my conclusions about the field:

1) Cool Coal Man – Nice pedigree and he could do well if it starts off lightning fast and slows to a crawl at the end, but I’m not a believer

2) Tale of Ekati – Sure, the Wood was slow, but I think he’s more talented than we’ve seen; I also like that he’s out of a Sunday Silence mare

3) Anak Nakal - Very much overmatched, given his current form

4) Court Vision – He couldn’t get it done in the Wood and he’s not high up on my list, but he does till intrigue me

5) Eight Belles – I love Dixieland Band as a Derby broodmare sire and she seems able to handle any sort of pace scenario -it’s all about the break

6) Z Fortune - I love his sire, Siphon, and think he could be sitting on a big race

7) Big Truck – Got some of the worst of it in the Blue Grass, but I’m not sure he’s as talented as his stablemate

8) Visionaire - Battle-tested in the Blue Grass, he’s in a perfect spot to outrun his pedigree

9) Pyro – If the real Pyro shows up, he’s definitely a threat

10) Colonel John – Nothing not to like, he’s trained over the Churchill Downs surface beautifully

11) Z Humor – I don’t see any reason for him to be here, much less any sort of factor

12) Smooth Air – His recent fever is a little too close for comfort Saturday

13) Bob Black Jack – Hasn’t won over 7 furlongs, but should be a pace factor

14) Monba – I would happily back him at this distance on turf

15) Adriano – Ditto, and I love his connections, but I’d prefer to see him on the grass

16) Denis of Cork – Terrible prep schedule and he hasn’t beaten much, but he does have talent

17) Cowboy Cal – Another one who would be nice to see on turf

18) Recapturetheglory – Another one with presumed distance limitations

19) Gayego – I like him, but he has a lot to overcome from here

20) Big Brown - If he’s really that good, it will be apparent – but even Curlin couldn’t get the job done from post 2

Let’s not forget the undercard races:
Churchill Downs - Wanderin’ Boy is back
La Troienne
Game Face is the likely favorite
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
Dreaming of Anna returns
Humana Distaff - This one is loaded: Hystericalady, Sugar Swirl, Baroness Thatcher, Miracle Miss
Woodford Reserve
– I love Einstein and Artiste Royal, but it’s a good field overall

I’ll be out of town tomorrow (yes, I’ll have to TiVo the Oaks, which I am shamefully neglecting this year – I like Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell) and then will be rushing back for the Derby undercard races, so below are my final wagering thoughts on the Derby.

I have future wagers on the following:
Visionaire
– 20-1 (I also have FirstDibz)
Denis of Cork
– 15-1
Tale of Ekati
– 30-1

Some possible boxes (feel free to mix and match):
Pyro, Colonel John, Visionaire, Eight Belles
Z Fortune, Tale of Ekati, Big Brown

Official prediction: Visionaire – Colonel John – Z Fortune – Big Brown

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