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Breeders' Cup 2011: Saturday Wrap-up

No doubt Goldikova’s final race will be many people’s chief memory of the day – add in some truly bizarre results throughout the weekend, and this year’s Breeders’ Cup looks like a bit of a head-scratcher in retrospect. But think of the high points: Joseph O’Brien (surely, the only jockey in the world who towers over me) wins one for his dad, we have some some exciting 2-year-olds to watch for next year, a ‘freebie’ horse winning a Breeders’ Cup race in the excellent Amazombie, and a thrilling result in the Classic. While I did not hit the Exes Exacta (Mike Smith and Chantal Sutherland facing one another in a real race), I did have money on both Drosselmeyer and Game On Dude, so I at least made up a little bit of what was otherwise a terrible wagering weekend (for me).

Let the (very, very confusing) Horse of the Year discussion get going…it’s not often I’m glad I’m not a voter!

Breeders' Cup 2011: Friday Wrap-up

Some quick highlights from Friday: Secret Circle looked sharp, but Shumoos was perhaps more exciting finishing just behind him. And there were some great longshot wins from Musical Romance and Perfect Shirl. My Miss Aurelia looks to have a bright future, and I really need to make back all I lost with a strong showing Saturday!

Breeders' Cup Classic

And so, on to the main event – will something happen that could knock Goldikova off the top of Twitter’s trending topics? Follow along to find out…we’ll be posting our customary wrapups-with-Blingees after key races on both Friday and Saturday (with or without any jockeyfights).

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Prayer for Relief	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	30-1
Can’t see it happening.
2.	Flat Out	Alex Solis	Charles L. Dickey	6-1
Seems to be coming into his own, but he couldn’t beat Havre de Grace in the Woodward.
3.	Drosselmeyer	Mike Smith	William Mott	15-1
Last year’s Belmont winner has proven his victory was no fluke – could hit the board.
4.	Ruler On Ice	Garrett Gomez	Kelly Breen	30-1
This Belmont winner still needs to work on that.
5.	So You Think	Ryan Moore	Aidan O’Brien	5-1
Most well-traveled horse in the field apparently likes working on dirt…
6.	Ice Box	Corey Nakatani	Nichaolas P. Zito	30-1
His recent efforts have not inspired confidence.
7.	Rattlesnake Bridge	Calvin Borel	Kiaran McLaughlin	30-1
Seems overmatched here.
8.	Game On Dude	Chantal Sutherland	Bob Baffert	10-1
Comes in with a nice record; the Chantal Sutherland/Bob Baffert combo should be the most telegenic in the field.
9.	Stay Thirsty	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12-1
Travers winner is certainly talented, but I’d prefer his chances next year.
10.	Havre de Grace	Ramon Dominguez	Larry Jones	3-1
I want her to win because she’s the best, not just because she’s The Filly.
11.	Headache	Paco Lopez	Michael Maker	30-1
Won last time out, but a huge step up in class.
12.	Uncle Mo	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	5-2
The Dirt Mile would have been perfect.
13.	To Honor and Serve	Jose Lezcano	William Mott	12-1
Flying under the radar a bit here…worth watching.

Predictions: Havre de Grace, So You Think, Stay Thirsty, Game On Dude
Longshot: Drosselmeyer

Breeders' Cup Mile

The moment you have all been waiting for – the Goldikova show! With the exception of the connections of the horses running against her (and one would imagine that even some of them are hoping she’ll make history), it would be hard to find anyone not looking for the French star to end her career with a fourth Breeders’ Cup Mile victory.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Goldikova	Olivier Peslier	Freddy Head	7-5
I’d never bet against her, for sentimental or cash-related reasons. Let’s do it!
2.	Zoffany	Ryan Moore	Aidan P. O’Brien	20-1
Looked great last year, but then ran into Frankel – did it hurt his confidence?
3.	Courageous Cat	Patrick Valenzuela	William I. Mott	8-1
Certainly effective against American milers, but will have much more to do here.
4.	Mr. Commons	Mike Smith	John A. Shirreffs	20-1
Seems to prefer turf miles, but again, he’s not faced Goldikova.
5.	Gio Ponti	Ramon Dominguez	Christophe Clement	4-1
I hate to root against such a wonderful horse, but I will be in this instance. Hope for a good second.
6.	Get Stormy	Garrett Gomez	Thomas M. Bush	15-1
Very honest horse – could see him hitting the board.
7.	Jeranimo	Martin Garcia	Mike Pender	20-1
Has never been terribly consistent.
8.	Byword	Maxime Guyon	Andre Fabre	12-1
Has faced some impressive European fields and should finish well.
9.	Court Vision	Robby Albarado	Dale L. Romans	30-1
Seems to have lost a step this year.
10.	Sidney’s Candy	John Velazquez	Todd A. Pletcher	15-1
A fine horse, but I can’t see it being his day.
11.	Strong Suit	Richard Hughes	Richard Hannon	10-1
Another Frankel victim, but one who has rebounded of late.
12.	Compliance Officer	Alex Solis	Bruce Brown	30-1
Has done very well since being claimed, but has never faced this company.
13.	Turallure	Julien Leparoux	Charles Lopresti	8-1
Another solid North American contender, but this field goes to 11.

Predictions: Goldikova, Gio Ponti, Strong Suit, Byword
Longshot: Byword

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

2 year olds. On dirt. Cue often-misguided early Derby buzz.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Take Charge Indy	James Graham	Patrick B. Byrne	30-1
Looked very tired in his last race (and I say this as a fan of his dam, Take Charge Lady).
2.	Dullahan	Kent Desormeaux	Dale L. Romans	8-1
Half to Mine That Bird tries the dirt. Looked good on turf, but will his form translate?
3.	Crusade	Julien Leparoux	Aidan P. O’Brien	12-1
European invader also a dirt debutant.
4.	Drill	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	8-1
Still learning, but worth keeping an eye on.
5.	Hansen	Ramon Dominguez	Michael J. Maker	10-1
Undefeated in two starts and generating some buzz.
6.	Prospective	Luis Contreras	Mark E. Casse	30-1
Won two out of three at Woodbine.
7.	Creative Cause	Joel Rosario	Mike Harrington	7-2
Looks bred for turf, but seems to love the dirt. Impressive Norfolk winner.
8.	Speightscity	Corey Nakatani	Gary Contessa	20-1
Big step up in class, but they are all only 2.
9.	Alpha	Garrett Gomez	Kiaran P. McLaughlin	15-1
Second to Union Rags in the Champagne.
10.	Union Rags	Javier Castellano	Michael R. Matz	2-1
Undefeated buzz horse looks a strong favorite here.
11.	Daddy Long Legs	Ryan Moore	Aidan P. O’Brien	12-1
Another European horse, but with a very American pedigree.
12.	Fort Loudon	Luis Gerardo	Stanley Gold	20-1
Very experienced, but another taking a jump up in class.
13.	Optimizer	Robby Albarado	D. Wayne Lukas	15-1
Another who looks like he could go for either turf or dirt.

Predictions: Union Rags, Dullahan, Creative Cause, Alpha
Longshot: Prospective

Breeders' Cup Turf

Insert ‘European Vacation’ jokes here…and expect a blanket finish from the stars who have flown in from across the pond.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	St Nicholas Abbey	Joseph P. O’Brien	Aidan O’Brien	9-2
Certainly very accomplished, but I think Sarafina has his number this time.
2.	Sarafina	Christophe Lemaire	Alain De Royer-Dupre	5-2
While the Arc->Breeders’ Cup trip hasn’t worked well in the past, she could do it.
3.	Dean’s Kitten	Ramon Dominguez	Michael J. Maker	10-1
I suppose some Americans have to enter, and he’s bred for it.
4.	Stately Victor	Mike Smith	Michael J. Maker	30-1
Can’t see it happening.
5.	Teaks North	Javier Castellano	Justin Sallusto	20-1
Has some good US turf results, but he’ll never beat this group.
6.	Await the Dawn	Julien Leparoux	Aidan O’Brien	7-2
Should be a very serious threat.
7.	Sea Moon	Ryan Moore	Sir Michael R. Stoute	4-1
Will the lost training time this week affect him? Looks solid.
8.	Brilliant Speed	John Velazquez	Thomas Albertrani	20-1
Would have a great deal of work to do.
9.	Midday	Tom Queally	Sir Henry Cecil	4-1
Has had some bad luck this year, but eschewed the F&M Turf for this one – she has a definite shot.

Predictions: Sarafina, Midday, Sea Moon, Await the Dawn
Longshot: We’ll pretend Midday is a longshot.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Or, the race that Uncle Mo should have been running in. You know this.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	The Factor	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	7-2
Bad luck last time out, but has he returned to his best form?
2.	Shackleford	Jesus Castanon	Dale Romans	7-2
Ran out of gas before, but this could be his perfect distance.
3.	Tapizar	Garrett Gomez	Steven Asmussen	20-1
Looked good in a confidence-building allowance win.
4.	Tres Borrachos	Joel Rosario	Martin F. Jones	30-1
Last won in July, but again, this could be the right distance.
5.	Wilburn	Julien Leparoux	Steven M. Asmussen	4-1
Can’t seem to lose lately, even when encountering trouble.
6.	Irrefutable	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	12-1
Seems to prefer a shorter race, but interesting to see him here.
7.	Jersey Town	Cornelio Velasquez	Barclay Tagg	15-1
Cigar Mile winner finishes in the money frequently.
8.	Caleb’s Posse	Rajiv Maragh	Donnie K. Von Hemel	5-1
Should relish this cut back in distance after the Indiana Derby experiment.
9.	Trappe Shot	John Velazquez	Kiaran McLaughlin	3-1
Outside post may finally give him a chance for a clean break.

Predictions: Wilburn, Trappe Shot, The Factor, Tapizar
Longshot: Jersey Town

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Some old rivals return to the turf for a little speedwork…

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Grand Adventure	Javier Castellano	Mark R. Frostad	20-1
It’s been a long time since he’s found the winner’s circle.
2.	Holiday for Kitten	Joel Rosario	Wesley A. Ward	30-1
Has some good experience, but with lesser company.
3.	Broken Dreams	Garrett Gomez	Thomas F. Proctor	20-1
Won last time out, but a taller order here.
4.	Perfect Officer	Kendrick Carmouche	Michael Pino	12-1
May well finish in the money, but I don’t see him winning.
5.	Great Attack	Jeffrey Sanchez	Wesley A. Ward	20-1
Last victory was a 2010 allowance race.
6.	California Flag	Patrick Venezuela	Brian J. Koriner	15-1
Won this race in ’09, unlucky last year; comes in on a win. Would be a great story.
7.	Hoofit	Edgar Prado	H. Graham Motion	15-1
Intriguing NZ-bred looked great in his first two US races.
8.	Regally Ready	Corey Nakatani	Steven M. Asmussen	3-1
Toss his penultimate race and he’s had a great year.
9.	Rapport	Brian Hernandez Jr.	Ronny W. Werner	30-1
First race of this year was in October; last win was in 2010.
10.	Havelock	Robby Albarado	Darrin Miller	9-2
Won last time despite a very wide trip; a worthy favorite.
11.	Country Day	James Graham	Stephen R. Margolis	20-1
Probably a notch blow some of these.
12.	Camp Victory	Julien Leparoux	Mike R. Mitchell	12-1
Second to The Factor not long ago and often finishes in the money.
13.	Caracortado	Joe Talamo	Michael Machowsky	4-1
Won last time despite a troubled trip; seems to have returned to form.
14.	Chamberlain Bridge	Jamie Theriot	W. Bret Calhoun	5-1
Has not had the best of luck this year, but has the talent.

Predictions: Havelock, Caracortado, Regally Ready, Chamberlain Bridge
Longshot: Hoofit

Breeders' Cup Sprint

On to the grown-up speedsters…Big Drama is looking to defend his title.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Euroears	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	4-1
Had a bad trip last time out, but has otherwise had a convincing campaign this year.
2.	Giant Ryan	Cornelio Velasquez	Bisnath Parbhoo	8-1
He’s won six in a row (including the Vosburgh) and is 8-1. Attractive.
3.	Aikenite	Javier Castellano	Todd A. Pletcher	8-1
Has had a string of bad luck since May, but nearly got there last time.
4.	Hamazing Destiny	Robby Albarado	D. Wayne Lukas	10-1
Finishes in the money, but hasn’t won for quite a long time.
5.	Jackson Bend	Corey Nakatani	Nicholas P. Zito	7-2
Won the Forego, but lost out to Uncle Mo in the Kelso last time out.
6.	Force Freeze	John Velazquez	Peter R. Walder	10-1
Probably a notch below these.
7.	Amazombie	Mike Smith	William Spawr	5-1
All the Ancient Title winner wants to do is eat your brains. He’s not unreasonable.
8.	Big Drama	Ramon Dominguez	David Fawkes	5-2
Has only raced twice since winning here last year.
9.	Apriority	Joel Rosario	David Fawkes	30-1
Had not managed to beat the best in this division.

Predictions: Euroears, Amazombie, Jackson Bend, Aikenite
Longshot: Giant Ryan

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Look! 2-year-olds on the turf – lots of them! This should be an interesting betting race.

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	ML Odds
1.	Gung Ho	Michael Maker	Mike Smith	20-1
Has some winning experience, but wasn’t quite up to it when tested last time out. Update: scratched.
2.	Fantastic Song	Chad Brown	Javier Castellano	20-1
Only two races so far, but he showed promise.
3.	Shkspeare Shaliyah	Doodnauth Shivmangal	Alex Solis	15-1
Never out of the money – so far.
4.	Farraaj	Roger Varian	Neil Callan	15-1
Decent in Europe; should be a threat.
5.	Wrote	Aidan O’Brien	Ryan Moore	12-1
Another solid European performer.
6.	Coalport	Wayne Catalano	Junior Alvarado	15-1
And another good-looking, lightly-raced son of Kitten’s Joy.
7.	Caspar Netscher	Alan McCabe	Kieren Fallon	6-1
UK-based colt has more wins than some in this field have starts.
8.	Majestic City	Peter Miller	Garrett Gomez	4-1
Still learning, but has shown some talent.
9.	Daddy Nose Best	Steve Asmussen	Julien Leparoux	30-1
Big step up in class.
10.	Animal Spirits	Al Stall Jr.	Robby Albarado	8-1
Comes in off a win in the Bourbon, but can he beat the Euros?
11.	Excaper	Ian Black	Emma-Jayne Wilson	30-1
Canadian-based colt sticks with his regular jockey.
12.	Lucky Chappy	Graham Motion	Joel Rosario	10-1
Third in his first US start, but a winner in Italy.
13.	Finale	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	5-1
Has three consecutive wins to his credit.
14.	State of Play	Graham Motion	Ramon Dominguez	5-1
Undefeated (in two starts), has the right tools.
15.	Tequila Factor	Wayne Catalano	Rafael Bejarano	30-1 (AE)
Unlikely to start, and has never faced this sort of company. Update: Makes the field! Still a longshot.

Predictions: Caspar Netscher, Wrote, Lucky Chappy, Coalport
Longshot: Fantastic Song

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