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Superfectablog v3.0: overthinking horse racing on your behalf since 2006 - Part 2

Racehorses in History

June: Fairy Chant
b. 1937
Why: A champion at 3 and 4, Fairy Chant won the Beldame twice. She was in the money for 26 of her 42 races.

Raceday 360

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Breeders' Cup Turf

Insert ‘European Vacation’ jokes here…and expect a blanket finish from the stars who have flown in from across the pond.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1. St Nicholas Abbey  Joseph P. O’Brien Aidan O’Brien 9-2
Certainly very accomplished, but I think Sarafina has his number this time.
2. Sarafina Christophe Lemaire Alain De Royer-Dupre 5-2
While the Arc->Breeders’ Cup trip hasn’t worked well in the past, she could do it.
3. Dean’s Kitten Ramon Dominguez Michael J. Maker 10-1
I suppose some Americans have to enter, and he’s bred for it.
4. Stately Victor Mike Smith Michael J. Maker 30-1
Can’t see it happening.
5. Teaks North Javier Castellano Justin Sallusto 20-1
Has some good US turf results, but he’ll never beat this group.
6. Await the Dawn Julien Leparoux Aidan O’Brien 7-2
Should be a very serious threat.
7. Sea Moon   Ryan Moore Sir Michael R. Stoute 4-1
Will the lost training time this week affect him? Looks solid.
8. Brilliant Speed John Velazquez Thomas Albertrani 20-1
Would have a great deal of work to do.
9. Midday   Tom Queally Sir Henry Cecil 4-1
Has had some bad luck this year, but eschewed the F&M Turf for this one – she has a definite shot.

Predictions: Sarafina, Midday, Sea Moon, Await the Dawn
Longshot:
We’ll pretend Midday is a longshot.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Or, the race that Uncle Mo should have been running in. You know this.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1. The Factor Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 7-2
Bad luck last time out, but has he returned to his best form?
2. Shackleford Jesus Castanon Dale Romans 7-2
Ran out of gas before, but this could be his perfect distance.
3. Tapizar Garrett Gomez Steven Asmussen 20-1
Looked good in a confidence-building allowance win.
4. Tres Borrachos Joel Rosario Martin F. Jones 30-1
Last won in July, but again, this could be the right distance.
5. Wilburn Julien Leparoux Steven M. Asmussen 4-1
Can’t seem to lose lately, even when encountering trouble.
6. Irrefutable Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 12-1
Seems to prefer a shorter race, but interesting to see him here.
7. Jersey Town Cornelio Velasquez Barclay Tagg 15-1
Cigar Mile winner finishes in the money frequently.
8. Caleb’s Posse Rajiv Maragh Donnie K. Von Hemel 5-1
Should relish this cut back in distance after the Indiana Derby experiment.
9. Trappe Shot John Velazquez Kiaran McLaughlin 3-1
Outside post may finally give him a chance for a clean break.

Predictions: Wilburn, Trappe Shot, The Factor, Tapizar
Longshot: Jersey Town

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Some old rivals return to the turf for a little speedwork…

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1. Grand Adventure Javier Castellano Mark R. Frostad 20-1
It’s been a long time since he’s found the winner’s circle.
2. Holiday for Kitten Joel Rosario Wesley A. Ward 30-1
Has some good experience, but with lesser company.
3. Broken Dreams Garrett Gomez Thomas F. Proctor 20-1
Won last time out, but a taller order here.
4. Perfect Officer Kendrick Carmouche Michael Pino 12-1
May well finish in the money, but I don’t see him winning.
5. Great Attack Jeffrey Sanchez Wesley A. Ward 20-1
Last victory was a 2010 allowance race.
6. California Flag Patrick Venezuela Brian J. Koriner 15-1
Won this race in ’09, unlucky last year; comes in on a win. Would be a great story.
7. Hoofit   Edgar Prado H. Graham Motion 15-1
Intriguing NZ-bred looked great in his first two US races.
8. Regally Ready Corey Nakatani Steven M. Asmussen 3-1
Toss his penultimate race and he’s had a great year.
9. Rapport Brian Hernandez Jr. Ronny W. Werner 30-1
First race of this year was in October; last win was in 2010.
10. Havelock Robby Albarado Darrin Miller 9-2
Won last time despite a very wide trip; a worthy favorite.
11. Country Day James Graham Stephen R. Margolis 20-1
Probably a notch blow some of these.
12. Camp Victory Julien Leparoux Mike  R. Mitchell 12-1
Second to The Factor not long ago and often finishes in the money.
13. Caracortado Joe Talamo Michael Machowsky 4-1
Won last time despite a troubled trip; seems to have returned to form.
14. Chamberlain Bridge Jamie Theriot W. Bret Calhoun 5-1
Has not had the best of luck this year, but has the talent.

Predictions: Havelock, Caracortado, Regally Ready, Chamberlain Bridge
Longshot: Hoofit

Breeders' Cup Sprint

On to the grown-up speedsters…Big Drama is looking to defend his title.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1. Euroears Rafael Bejarano Bob Baffert 4-1
Had a bad trip last time out, but has otherwise had a convincing campaign this year.
2. Giant Ryan Cornelio Velasquez Bisnath Parbhoo 8-1
He’s won six in a row (including the Vosburgh) and is 8-1. Attractive.
3. Aikenite Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher 8-1
Has had a string of bad luck since May, but nearly got there last time.
4. Hamazing Destiny Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 10-1
Finishes in the money, but hasn’t won for quite a long time.
5. Jackson Bend Corey Nakatani Nicholas P. Zito 7-2
Won the Forego, but lost out to Uncle Mo in the Kelso last time out.
6. Force Freeze John Velazquez Peter R. Walder 10-1
Probably a notch below these.
7. Amazombie Mike Smith William Spawr 5-1
All the Ancient Title winner wants to do is eat your brains. He’s not unreasonable.
8. Big Drama Ramon Dominguez David Fawkes 5-2
Has only raced twice since winning here last year.
9. Apriority Joel Rosario David Fawkes 30-1
Had not managed to beat the best in this division.

Predictions: Euroears, Amazombie, Jackson Bend, Aikenite
Longshot: Giant Ryan

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Look! 2-year-olds on the turf – lots of them! This should be an interesting betting race.

Post Horse Trainer Jockey ML Odds
1. Gung Ho Michael Maker Mike Smith 20-1
Has some winning experience, but wasn’t quite up to it when tested last time out. Update: scratched.
2. Fantastic Song Chad Brown Javier Castellano 20-1
Only two races so far, but he showed promise.
3. Shkspeare Shaliyah Doodnauth Shivmangal Alex Solis 15-1
Never out of the money – so far.
4. Farraaj Roger Varian Neil Callan 15-1
Decent in Europe; should be a threat.
5. Wrote Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore 12-1
Another solid European performer.
6. Coalport Wayne Catalano Junior Alvarado 15-1
And another good-looking, lightly-raced son of Kitten’s Joy.
7. Caspar Netscher Alan McCabe Kieren Fallon 6-1
UK-based colt has more wins than some in this field have starts.
8. Majestic City Peter Miller Garrett Gomez 4-1
Still learning, but has shown some talent.
9. Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen Julien Leparoux 30-1
Big step up in class.
10. Animal Spirits Al Stall Jr. Robby Albarado 8-1
Comes in off a win in the Bourbon, but can he beat the Euros?
11. Excaper Ian Black Emma-Jayne Wilson 30-1
Canadian-based colt sticks with his regular jockey.
12. Lucky Chappy Graham Motion Joel Rosario 10-1
Third in his first US start, but a winner in Italy.
13. Finale  Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 5-1
Has three consecutive wins to his credit.
14. State of Play  Graham Motion Ramon Dominguez 5-1
Undefeated (in two starts), has the right tools.
15. Tequila Factor Wayne Catalano Rafael Bejarano 30-1 (AE)
Unlikely to start, and has never faced this sort of company. Update: Makes the field! Still a longshot.

Predictions: Caspar Netscher, Wrote, Lucky Chappy, Coalport
Longshot: Fantastic Song

Breeders' Cup Marathon

And on to Saturday’s races! I know many of you are not fans of this race, but I am, and I’m pleased to see last year’s champion returning; it’s an interesting field.

Post Horse Trainer Jockey ML Odds
1. Birdrun Bill Mott John Velazquez 7-2
He has been in the money often this year; worth watching.
2. Baryshnikov Michael Maker Mike Smith 12-1
Second to Paddy O’Prado in the Dixie, but a little further back lately.
3. Meeznah David Lanigan Thomas Queally 12-1
Has some quality experience in the UK and Ireland and should like the distance.
4. Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward Joel Rosario 12-1
He’s tried many other distances, why not this one?
5. Giant Oak Chris Block Shaun Bridgmohan 9-2
Had a bad trip in this race last year; could easily see him hitting the board.
6. Brigantin Andre Fabre Julien Leparoux 8-1
Hit and miss in France and England, but should have the stamina.
7. Harrison’s Cave Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore 30-1
Has not faced the best European company, but seems to be improving.
8. Afleet Again Robert Reid Jr. Cornelio Velasquez 30-1
He’s made money the hard way, but might like to go longer.
9. Cease Al Stall Jr. Garrett Gomez 6-1
Third in his first stakes experience and lightly-raced, but could be improving at the right time.
10. Eldaafer Diane Alvarado Javier Castellano 10-1
Won this race last year and is coming in with a respectable record.
11. A. U. Miner Clark Hanna Calvin Borel 3-1
Had a terrible trip in last year’s Marathon and often seems to find trouble, but has the distance.

Predictions: Eldaafer, A. U. Miner, Giant Oak, Meeznah
Longshot: Harrison’s Cave

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

This should be the high point of your Friday…

Post Horse Trainer Jockey ML Odds
1. Miss Match Neil Drysdale Garrett Gomez 10-1
Had bad luck when taking on the boys, but has talent.
2. Pachattack Gerard Butler Rajiv Maragh 12-1
Super-impressive in her second-place Spinster finish; definitely my ‘wiseguy’ pick.
3. It’s Tricky Kiaran McLaughlin Ramon Dominguez 5-1
Always a threat in this company; has mixed it up with many in this field.
4. Satan’s Quick Chick Jeff Odintz Edgar Prado 30-1
Tough task here, but she likes to hit the board.
5. Ask the Moon  Martin Wolfson Javier Castellano 6-1
Has some impressive wins under her belt.
6. Royal Delta Bill Mott Jose Lezcano 5-2
Second to Havre de Grace last time out – certainly no shame in that.
7. Ultra Blend  Art Sherman David Flores 8-1
Won her way in here, but is probably a notch below the best.
8. Plum Pretty Bob Baffert Rafael Bejarano 2-1
A win here would wrap up a great year.
9. Medaglia d’Amour Ben Cecil Pat Valenzuela 30-1
Seems better suited to G2 company. Update: scratched with a fever.
10. Super Espresso Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 20-1
Has not won since May, but hast talent.

Predictions: Royal Delta, Plum Pretty, It’s Tricky, Ask the Moon
Longshot: Pachattack

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Getting one to one of the main attractions of Day One…

Post Horse Trainer Jockey ML Odds
1. Dubawi Heights Simon Callaghan Joel Rosario 8-1
Solid winner of the Yellow Ribbon, but I don’t see her beating Stacelita.
2. Stacelita Chad Brown Ramon Dominguez 2-1
A favorite here for good reason.
3. Harmonious John Shirreffs Martin Garcia 30-1
Has managed to hit the board often, but hasn’t beaten the best here.
4. Cambina Jeff Bonde Garrett Gomez 30-1
Tall order in this company.
5. Nahrain Roger Varian Frankie Dettori 7-2
Undefeated in England and France, but still very lightly-raced.
6. Announce Andre Fabre Maxime Guyon 9-2
Has done well against very tough fields in Europe.
7. Aruna Graham Motion Julien Leparoux 6-1
Perhaps the strongest US-bred horse in the race; should be a threat.
8. Perfect Shirl Roger Attfield John Velazquez 30-1
Has not managed to find the winner’s circle this year, although she has been close.
9. Shared Account Graham Motion Edgar Prado 30-1
Last year’s longshot winner is back to try again – and is still a longshot based on her current form, but one never knows…
10. Distorted Legacy Angel Penna Jr. Rajiv Maragh 30-1
Has not excelled in this company in the past.
11. Dynaslew Seth Benzel Corey Nakatani 30-1
Another American longshot, though very well-bred.
12. Misty For Me Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore 10-1
Has beaten Midday and other top European fillies, but needs the right trip.

Predictions: Stacelita, Misty For Me, Aruna, Nahrain
Longshot: Shared Account

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

Have some Grey Goose (or something)…

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1. Questing
William Buick John Gosden 20-1
UK-bred daughter of Hard Spun tries the dirt.
2. Candrea
Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 6-1
Baffertt and Garcia team up again with an interesting-looking filly.
3. Rocket Twentyone
Eddie Razo, Jr. W.T. Howard 20-1
Winner of both her lifetime starts, though not against this sort of company.
4. Miss Netta Rajiv Maragh Kiaran McLaughlin 15-1
Lightly-raced Street Sense filly steps up.
5. Grace Hall
Ramon Dominguez Anthony Dutrow 4-1
Three-for-three so far, including the Spinaway.
6. Self Preservation
Joel Rosario Ben Cecil 15-1
Less lucky since coming from Ireland, but has shown ability on dirt.
7. Putthebabiesdown
Alan Garcia Kenneth McPeek 30-1
Looking to find the winner’s circle again after her debut win.
8. Homecoming Queen
Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 15-1
Two wins in Ireland (after a slow start) – will dirt suit her better?
9. My Miss Aurelia
Corey Nakatani Steven Asmussen 5-2
Undefeated favorite looks good here.
10. Northern Passion Luis Contreras Mark Casse 12-1
Very interesting indeed at 12-1.
11. Weemissfrankie
Rafael Bejarano Peter Eurton 4-1
Yet another with a three-for-three record going in.
12. Frolic’s Revenge
John Velazquez Milton Wolfson 30-1
Can’t say I’m a huge fan of her sire, Vindication.
13. Say a Novena
Elvis Trujillo Edward Plesa, Jr. 30-1
Has done well in the Mid-Atlantic, now takes on the bigger girls.
14. Awesome Belle
Luis Gerardo Stanley Gold 20-1
Class issues and the outside post don’t help here.

Predictions: Candrea – My Miss Aurelia – Grace Hall – Questing
Longshot: Self Preservation

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

On to more fast fillies and mares…

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1. Irish Gypsy
Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 20-1
This is a good distance for her, but it’s a tall order – still, Garcia can work magic on Baffert horses…
2. Great Hot
Chantal Sutherland Antonio C. Avila 20-1
Brazilian-bred won last time out at Keeneland, but will she like real dirt?
3. Turbulent Descent
David Flores Mike Puype 6-5
Also won last time out, but it was back in August.
4. Champagne d’Oro Corey Nakatani Eric J. Guillot 30-1
Has certainly not been at her best this season.
5. Musical Romance
Juan Leyva William A. Kaplan 20-1
Solid sprinting credentials, but it’s a tough field.
6. Switch
Joel Rosario John Sadler 3-1
Had a bad trip in her last race, but is she back to her best?
7. Tar Heel Mom
Alex Solis Stanley Hough 12-1
Always right up there…she could be a live longshot.
8. Tanda
Joe Talamo Mike Mitchell 20-1
Seems more comfortable in G2 company, but could hit the board.
9. Golden Mystery
Kendrick Carmouche Juan Carlos Guerrero 20-1
Coming in with a 2-race winning streak, but it’s a big step up in class.
10. Tamarind Hall David Cohen Jeremiah C. Englehart 20-1
Another one taking a shot at horses that seem a notch above.
11. Her Smile
John Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 15-1
Is she better in a slightly shorter race?
12. Pomeroys Pistol
Javier Castellano Amy Tarrant 6-1
A winner last time out at Belmont…
13. Shotgun Gulch
Garrett Gomez C. R. Trout 30-1
Honest filly is probably in over her head here, but gets Gomez.

Predictions: Turbulent Descent – Switch – Pomeroys Pistol – Tar Heel Mom
Longshot: Her Smile