Superfectablog v3.0: overthinking horse racing on your behalf since 2006

Breeders' Cup Turf

Insert ‘European Vacation’ jokes here…and expect a blanket finish from the stars who have flown in from across the pond.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	St Nicholas Abbey	Joseph P. O’Brien	Aidan O’Brien	9-2
Certainly very accomplished, but I think Sarafina has his number this time.
2.	Sarafina	Christophe Lemaire	Alain De Royer-Dupre	5-2
While the Arc->Breeders’ Cup trip hasn’t worked well in the past, she could do it.
3.	Dean’s Kitten	Ramon Dominguez	Michael J. Maker	10-1
I suppose some Americans have to enter, and he’s bred for it.
4.	Stately Victor	Mike Smith	Michael J. Maker	30-1
Can’t see it happening.
5.	Teaks North	Javier Castellano	Justin Sallusto	20-1
Has some good US turf results, but he’ll never beat this group.
6.	Await the Dawn	Julien Leparoux	Aidan O’Brien	7-2
Should be a very serious threat.
7.	Sea Moon	Ryan Moore	Sir Michael R. Stoute	4-1
Will the lost training time this week affect him? Looks solid.
8.	Brilliant Speed	John Velazquez	Thomas Albertrani	20-1
Would have a great deal of work to do.
9.	Midday	Tom Queally	Sir Henry Cecil	4-1
Has had some bad luck this year, but eschewed the F&M Turf for this one – she has a definite shot.

Predictions: Sarafina, Midday, Sea Moon, Await the Dawn
Longshot: We’ll pretend Midday is a longshot.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Or, the race that Uncle Mo should have been running in. You know this.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	The Factor	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	7-2
Bad luck last time out, but has he returned to his best form?
2.	Shackleford	Jesus Castanon	Dale Romans	7-2
Ran out of gas before, but this could be his perfect distance.
3.	Tapizar	Garrett Gomez	Steven Asmussen	20-1
Looked good in a confidence-building allowance win.
4.	Tres Borrachos	Joel Rosario	Martin F. Jones	30-1
Last won in July, but again, this could be the right distance.
5.	Wilburn	Julien Leparoux	Steven M. Asmussen	4-1
Can’t seem to lose lately, even when encountering trouble.
6.	Irrefutable	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	12-1
Seems to prefer a shorter race, but interesting to see him here.
7.	Jersey Town	Cornelio Velasquez	Barclay Tagg	15-1
Cigar Mile winner finishes in the money frequently.
8.	Caleb’s Posse	Rajiv Maragh	Donnie K. Von Hemel	5-1
Should relish this cut back in distance after the Indiana Derby experiment.
9.	Trappe Shot	John Velazquez	Kiaran McLaughlin	3-1
Outside post may finally give him a chance for a clean break.

Predictions: Wilburn, Trappe Shot, The Factor, Tapizar
Longshot: Jersey Town

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Some old rivals return to the turf for a little speedwork…

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Grand Adventure	Javier Castellano	Mark R. Frostad	20-1
It’s been a long time since he’s found the winner’s circle.
2.	Holiday for Kitten	Joel Rosario	Wesley A. Ward	30-1
Has some good experience, but with lesser company.
3.	Broken Dreams	Garrett Gomez	Thomas F. Proctor	20-1
Won last time out, but a taller order here.
4.	Perfect Officer	Kendrick Carmouche	Michael Pino	12-1
May well finish in the money, but I don’t see him winning.
5.	Great Attack	Jeffrey Sanchez	Wesley A. Ward	20-1
Last victory was a 2010 allowance race.
6.	California Flag	Patrick Venezuela	Brian J. Koriner	15-1
Won this race in ’09, unlucky last year; comes in on a win. Would be a great story.
7.	Hoofit	Edgar Prado	H. Graham Motion	15-1
Intriguing NZ-bred looked great in his first two US races.
8.	Regally Ready	Corey Nakatani	Steven M. Asmussen	3-1
Toss his penultimate race and he’s had a great year.
9.	Rapport	Brian Hernandez Jr.	Ronny W. Werner	30-1
First race of this year was in October; last win was in 2010.
10.	Havelock	Robby Albarado	Darrin Miller	9-2
Won last time despite a very wide trip; a worthy favorite.
11.	Country Day	James Graham	Stephen R. Margolis	20-1
Probably a notch blow some of these.
12.	Camp Victory	Julien Leparoux	Mike R. Mitchell	12-1
Second to The Factor not long ago and often finishes in the money.
13.	Caracortado	Joe Talamo	Michael Machowsky	4-1
Won last time despite a troubled trip; seems to have returned to form.
14.	Chamberlain Bridge	Jamie Theriot	W. Bret Calhoun	5-1
Has not had the best of luck this year, but has the talent.

Predictions: Havelock, Caracortado, Regally Ready, Chamberlain Bridge
Longshot: Hoofit

Breeders' Cup Sprint

On to the grown-up speedsters…Big Drama is looking to defend his title.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Euroears	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	4-1
Had a bad trip last time out, but has otherwise had a convincing campaign this year.
2.	Giant Ryan	Cornelio Velasquez	Bisnath Parbhoo	8-1
He’s won six in a row (including the Vosburgh) and is 8-1. Attractive.
3.	Aikenite	Javier Castellano	Todd A. Pletcher	8-1
Has had a string of bad luck since May, but nearly got there last time.
4.	Hamazing Destiny	Robby Albarado	D. Wayne Lukas	10-1
Finishes in the money, but hasn’t won for quite a long time.
5.	Jackson Bend	Corey Nakatani	Nicholas P. Zito	7-2
Won the Forego, but lost out to Uncle Mo in the Kelso last time out.
6.	Force Freeze	John Velazquez	Peter R. Walder	10-1
Probably a notch below these.
7.	Amazombie	Mike Smith	William Spawr	5-1
All the Ancient Title winner wants to do is eat your brains. He’s not unreasonable.
8.	Big Drama	Ramon Dominguez	David Fawkes	5-2
Has only raced twice since winning here last year.
9.	Apriority	Joel Rosario	David Fawkes	30-1
Had not managed to beat the best in this division.

Predictions: Euroears, Amazombie, Jackson Bend, Aikenite
Longshot: Giant Ryan

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Look! 2-year-olds on the turf – lots of them! This should be an interesting betting race.

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	ML Odds
1.	Gung Ho	Michael Maker	Mike Smith	20-1
Has some winning experience, but wasn’t quite up to it when tested last time out. Update: scratched.
2.	Fantastic Song	Chad Brown	Javier Castellano	20-1
Only two races so far, but he showed promise.
3.	Shkspeare Shaliyah	Doodnauth Shivmangal	Alex Solis	15-1
Never out of the money – so far.
4.	Farraaj	Roger Varian	Neil Callan	15-1
Decent in Europe; should be a threat.
5.	Wrote	Aidan O’Brien	Ryan Moore	12-1
Another solid European performer.
6.	Coalport	Wayne Catalano	Junior Alvarado	15-1
And another good-looking, lightly-raced son of Kitten’s Joy.
7.	Caspar Netscher	Alan McCabe	Kieren Fallon	6-1
UK-based colt has more wins than some in this field have starts.
8.	Majestic City	Peter Miller	Garrett Gomez	4-1
Still learning, but has shown some talent.
9.	Daddy Nose Best	Steve Asmussen	Julien Leparoux	30-1
Big step up in class.
10.	Animal Spirits	Al Stall Jr.	Robby Albarado	8-1
Comes in off a win in the Bourbon, but can he beat the Euros?
11.	Excaper	Ian Black	Emma-Jayne Wilson	30-1
Canadian-based colt sticks with his regular jockey.
12.	Lucky Chappy	Graham Motion	Joel Rosario	10-1
Third in his first US start, but a winner in Italy.
13.	Finale	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	5-1
Has three consecutive wins to his credit.
14.	State of Play	Graham Motion	Ramon Dominguez	5-1
Undefeated (in two starts), has the right tools.
15.	Tequila Factor	Wayne Catalano	Rafael Bejarano	30-1 (AE)
Unlikely to start, and has never faced this sort of company. Update: Makes the field! Still a longshot.

Predictions: Caspar Netscher, Wrote, Lucky Chappy, Coalport
Longshot: Fantastic Song

Breeders' Cup Marathon

And on to Saturday’s races! I know many of you are not fans of this race, but I am, and I’m pleased to see last year’s champion returning; it’s an interesting field.

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	ML Odds
1.	Birdrun	Bill Mott	John Velazquez	7-2
He has been in the money often this year; worth watching.
2.	Baryshnikov	Michael Maker	Mike Smith	12-1
Second to Paddy O’Prado in the Dixie, but a little further back lately.
3.	Meeznah	David Lanigan	Thomas Queally	12-1
Has some quality experience in the UK and Ireland and should like the distance.
4.	Pleasant Prince	Wesley Ward	Joel Rosario	12-1
He’s tried many other distances, why not this one?
5.	Giant Oak	Chris Block	Shaun Bridgmohan	9-2
Had a bad trip in this race last year; could easily see him hitting the board.
6.	Brigantin	Andre Fabre	Julien Leparoux	8-1
Hit and miss in France and England, but should have the stamina.
7.	Harrison’s Cave	Aidan O’Brien	Ryan Moore	30-1
Has not faced the best European company, but seems to be improving.
8.	Afleet Again	Robert Reid Jr.	Cornelio Velasquez	30-1
He’s made money the hard way, but might like to go longer.
9.	Cease	Al Stall Jr.	Garrett Gomez	6-1
Third in his first stakes experience and lightly-raced, but could be improving at the right time.
10.	Eldaafer	Diane Alvarado	Javier Castellano	10-1
Won this race last year and is coming in with a respectable record.
11.	A. U. Miner	Clark Hanna	Calvin Borel	3-1
Had a terrible trip in last year’s Marathon and often seems to find trouble, but has the distance.

Predictions: Eldaafer, A. U. Miner, Giant Oak, Meeznah
Longshot: Harrison’s Cave

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

This should be the high point of your Friday…

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	ML Odds
1.	Miss Match	Neil Drysdale	Garrett Gomez	10-1
Had bad luck when taking on the boys, but has talent.
2.	Pachattack	Gerard Butler	Rajiv Maragh	12-1
Super-impressive in her second-place Spinster finish; definitely my ‘wiseguy’ pick.
3.	It’s Tricky	Kiaran McLaughlin	Ramon Dominguez	5-1
Always a threat in this company; has mixed it up with many in this field.
4.	Satan’s Quick Chick	Jeff Odintz	Edgar Prado	30-1
Tough task here, but she likes to hit the board.
5.	Ask the Moon	Martin Wolfson	Javier Castellano	6-1
Has some impressive wins under her belt.
6.	Royal Delta	Bill Mott	Jose Lezcano	5-2
Second to Havre de Grace last time out – certainly no shame in that.
7.	Ultra Blend	Art Sherman	David Flores	8-1
Won her way in here, but is probably a notch below the best.
8.	Plum Pretty	Bob Baffert	Rafael Bejarano	2-1
A win here would wrap up a great year.
9.	Medaglia d’Amour	Ben Cecil	Pat Valenzuela	30-1
Seems better suited to G2 company. Update: scratched with a fever.
10.	Super Espresso	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	20-1
Has not won since May, but hast talent.

Predictions: Royal Delta, Plum Pretty, It’s Tricky, Ask the Moon
Longshot: Pachattack

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Getting one to one of the main attractions of Day One…

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	ML Odds
1.	Dubawi Heights	Simon Callaghan	Joel Rosario	8-1
Solid winner of the Yellow Ribbon, but I don’t see her beating Stacelita.
2.	Stacelita	Chad Brown	Ramon Dominguez	2-1
A favorite here for good reason.
3.	Harmonious	John Shirreffs	Martin Garcia	30-1
Has managed to hit the board often, but hasn’t beaten the best here.
4.	Cambina	Jeff Bonde	Garrett Gomez	30-1
Tall order in this company.
5.	Nahrain	Roger Varian	Frankie Dettori	7-2
Undefeated in England and France, but still very lightly-raced.
6.	Announce	Andre Fabre	Maxime Guyon	9-2
Has done well against very tough fields in Europe.
7.	Aruna	Graham Motion	Julien Leparoux	6-1
Perhaps the strongest US-bred horse in the race; should be a threat.
8.	Perfect Shirl	Roger Attfield	John Velazquez	30-1
Has not managed to find the winner’s circle this year, although she has been close.
9.	Shared Account	Graham Motion	Edgar Prado	30-1
Last year’s longshot winner is back to try again – and is still a longshot based on her current form, but one never knows…
10.	Distorted Legacy	Angel Penna Jr.	Rajiv Maragh	30-1
Has not excelled in this company in the past.
11.	Dynaslew	Seth Benzel	Corey Nakatani	30-1
Another American longshot, though very well-bred.
12.	Misty For Me	Aidan O’Brien	Ryan Moore	10-1
Has beaten Midday and other top European fillies, but needs the right trip.

Predictions: Stacelita, Misty For Me, Aruna, Nahrain
Longshot: Shared Account

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

Have some Grey Goose (or something)…

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Questing	William Buick	John Gosden	20-1
UK-bred daughter of Hard Spun tries the dirt.
2.	Candrea	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	6-1
Baffertt and Garcia team up again with an interesting-looking filly.
3.	Rocket Twentyone	Eddie Razo, Jr.	W.T. Howard	20-1
Winner of both her lifetime starts, though not against this sort of company.
4.	Miss Netta	Rajiv Maragh	Kiaran McLaughlin	15-1
Lightly-raced Street Sense filly steps up.
5.	Grace Hall	Ramon Dominguez	Anthony Dutrow	4-1
Three-for-three so far, including the Spinaway.
6.	Self Preservation	Joel Rosario	Ben Cecil	15-1
Less lucky since coming from Ireland, but has shown ability on dirt.
7.	Putthebabiesdown	Alan Garcia	Kenneth McPeek	30-1
Looking to find the winner’s circle again after her debut win.
8.	Homecoming Queen	Ryan Moore	Aidan O’Brien	15-1
Two wins in Ireland (after a slow start) – will dirt suit her better?
9.	My Miss Aurelia	Corey Nakatani	Steven Asmussen	5-2
Undefeated favorite looks good here.
10.	Northern Passion	Luis Contreras	Mark Casse	12-1
Very interesting indeed at 12-1.
11.	Weemissfrankie	Rafael Bejarano	Peter Eurton	4-1
Yet another with a three-for-three record going in.
12.	Frolic’s Revenge	John Velazquez	Milton Wolfson	30-1
Can’t say I’m a huge fan of her sire, Vindication.
13.	Say a Novena	Elvis Trujillo	Edward Plesa, Jr.	30-1
Has done well in the Mid-Atlantic, now takes on the bigger girls.
14.	Awesome Belle	Luis Gerardo	Stanley Gold	20-1
Class issues and the outside post don’t help here.

Predictions: Candrea – My Miss Aurelia – Grace Hall – Questing
Longshot: Self Preservation

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

On to more fast fillies and mares…

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Irish Gypsy	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	20-1
This is a good distance for her, but it’s a tall order – still, Garcia can work magic on Baffert horses…
2.	Great Hot	Chantal Sutherland	Antonio C. Avila	20-1
Brazilian-bred won last time out at Keeneland, but will she like real dirt?
3.	Turbulent Descent	David Flores	Mike Puype	6-5
Also won last time out, but it was back in August.
4.	Champagne d’Oro	Corey Nakatani	Eric J. Guillot	30-1
Has certainly not been at her best this season.
5.	Musical Romance	Juan Leyva	William A. Kaplan	20-1
Solid sprinting credentials, but it’s a tough field.
6.	Switch	Joel Rosario	John Sadler	3-1
Had a bad trip in her last race, but is she back to her best?
7.	Tar Heel Mom	Alex Solis	Stanley Hough	12-1
Always right up there…she could be a live longshot.
8.	Tanda	Joe Talamo	Mike Mitchell	20-1
Seems more comfortable in G2 company, but could hit the board.
9.	Golden Mystery	Kendrick Carmouche	Juan Carlos Guerrero	20-1
Coming in with a 2-race winning streak, but it’s a big step up in class.
10.	Tamarind Hall	David Cohen	Jeremiah C. Englehart	20-1
Another one taking a shot at horses that seem a notch above.
11.	Her Smile	John Velazquez	Todd A. Pletcher	15-1
Is she better in a slightly shorter race?
12.	Pomeroys Pistol	Javier Castellano	Amy Tarrant	6-1
A winner last time out at Belmont…
13.	Shotgun Gulch	Garrett Gomez	C. R. Trout	30-1
Honest filly is probably in over her head here, but gets Gomez.

Predictions: Turbulent Descent – Switch – Pomeroys Pistol – Tar Heel Mom
Longshot: Her Smile

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