Superfectablog v3.0

Post-Kentucky Derby Musings

admin — Tue, 08 May 2012 14:28:06 +0000

As is not infrequently the case, the 3-year-old picture has been thrown into a bit of disarray after the Derby, and like a lot of fans, this year’s installment is one that’s left me with mixed feelings. I’m glad I cashed my across-the-board bet on I’ll Have Another, but it would have felt a bit more rewarding (albeit not remuneratively so) to do the same with one of my numerous Union Rags-based exactas. That said, I really like I’ll Have Another’s pedigree – I was a fan of his sire, Flower Alley – and I love that the stalwart Lava Man serves as his stable pony. I cannot say I’m thrilled by the off-track record of his trainer, Doug O’Neill, however; it’s always more pleasant to see one of the ‘good guys’ win, as opposed to those with a long string of drug violations (and the irksome would-be hipster hat didn’t do him any favors).

But leaving most of the human baggage aside, we had a truly thrilling horse race to enjoy. I never expected Bodemeister to show such speed for so long – I fully expected he would run out of steam after an early speed duel with Trinniberg and/or Hansen (a horse I’d never have bet had I gotten a good look at his condition in the post parade, but my television coverage was not ideal). My thought was that he was flash some brilliant speed and fade to fourth for fifth, then come back fitter later in the year, but he certainly showed he’s a truly impressive talent – imagine what he could do if he could rate! The Preakness looks like his perfect race, but he’s still a maturing horse; still, I’m very excited to see more of him in the future. The other close finishers, Dullahan and Went the Day Well, were also very impressive. Went the Day Well put in a fine performance (this time, one I thought we might see), but I did not anticipate Dullahan having his half-brother’s aptitude for the Churchill Downs dirt. Both horses have already shown great versatility, and they should also have interesting trajectories this year – Went the Day Well, in particular, looks like he will love the Belmont.

Poor Union Rags just can’t seem to overcome the bad racing luck he’s been running into (literally) lately. I’m a fan of Julien Leparoux, but perhaps he just isn’t the right fit for the horse, and I’d be very pleased to see a local jockey on a local horse – Rosie Napravnik for the Preakness, anyone? Hopefully he’ll soon return to the form we know he can achieve. The real puzzler for me was Hansen – he clearly did not enjoy anything about his Derby experience, but was it just an off day or something more? Gemologist simply did not fire either.

But back to the I’ll Have Another, who suffers a bit on two counts: he doesn’t have a feel-good human backstory that excites media interest (though surely his young jockey coming from almost nowhere to win America’s most well-known race counts for something), and he’s not as visually-impressive as a horse like Union Rags; his previous wins this year (including the Santa Anita Derby) have been nearly overlooked (though I can at least feel cheerful about having listed – and used – him as my longshot). But he does have Lava Man in his corner, and he’s the Derby champion – let’s see how things go in Baltimore. I’ll be following him (and Lava Man) on Twitter, in any case!

Kentucky Derby 2012: On the Record

admin — Thu, 03 May 2012 18:23:41 +0000

It’s that time of year again! As ever, I don’t think there is a requirement for there to be twenty horses again this year, but twenty there are, so let’s have a look (and make sure to follow @superfecta on Twitter for more):

PP	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	ML Odds
1.	Daddy Long Legs	Aidan O’Brien	Colm O’Donoghue	30-1
He has the distance foundation and he’s probably the least-likely horse in the field to be compromised by this post position, given his grass-racing background, but he did not seem to love Churchill Downs when he was here before; the surface remains a question mark.
2.	Optimizer	D. Wayne Lukas	Jon Court	50-1
I think Jon Court is a great jockey and it’s nice to see him get a Derby mount, but it’s hard to rank Optimizer up with even the middle ranks of this field.
3.	Take Charge Indy	Patrick Byrne	Calvin Borel	15-1
He had everything go his way when he won the Florida Derby, and he has Calvin Borel in the irons – and, more importantly, near the rail – but with a field this size, I don’t see him getting lucky again here.
4.	Union Rags	Michael Matz	Julien Leparoux	9-2
I would have preferred to see him a little further out and I still worry a bit about his pedigree for the distance, but he always seems to want more; I’d never bet against Julien Leparoux at Churchill Downs, though, and he is my ‘local’ horse, so I’m hoping for a good result. And you should go watch his documentary (not just because I’m in it)!
5.	Dullahan	Dale Romans	Kent Desormeaux	8-1
Mine That Bird’s little half-brother tries to follow in his footsteps, but the surface switch is a question mark – even if recent history suggests that it’s no big deal.
6.	Bodemeister	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	4-1
Given Bob Baffert’s heart attack in Dubai, it’s only natural to root for him here, especially with a horse named after his young son, but while Bodemeister looks like he’s growing into a very nice horse indeed, it might be happening a bit too late for this race. I expect to see him as a major threat later this year, and he could well be in the money.
7.	Rousing Sermon	Jerry Hollendorfer	Jose Lezcano	50-1
He just seems like a solid G2-G3 horse, I can’t see him being a factor here.
8.	Creative Cause	Mike Harrington	Joel Rosario	12-1
He has the right breeding and a good foundation, and I expect to see him as a contender.
9.	Trinniberg	Bisnath Parboo	Willie Martinez	50-1
He looks like a sprinter, and a very good one too; I’d love to see him in a shorter race.
10.	Daddy Nose Best	Steve Asmussen	Garrett Gomez	15-1
Another who seems more comfortable on turf, although his pedigree could keep him in contention.
11.	Alpha	Kiaran McLaughlin	Rajiv Maragh	15-1
He seems to be flying under the radar, but he could be a serious threat; do not discount him.
12.	Prospective	Mark Casse	Luis Contreras	30-1
His last-place finish in the Juvenile does not bode well for his chances here; seems overmatched.
13.	Went the Day Well	Graham Motion	John Velazquez	20-1
He’s the grass-to-dirt horse to back in my opinion; he seems to improve a bit each time out, although he’s probably more likely to hit the board than finish in front.
14.	Hansen	Mike Maker	Ramon Dominguez	10-1
I wish they would allow him his blue mane and tail, but even without them, he has a fine chance if he avoids an early speed duel; his post position seems a bit better for him in that regard, but early speed is a concern.
15.	Gemologist	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano	6-1
This horse should be getting geek cred for his dam’s name referencing The Dark Crystal, and he should be getting racing cred for his undefeated record. I would be thrilled if he went off at 6-1.
16.	El Padrino	Todd Pletcher	Rafael Bejarano	20-1
Like Union Rags, he had an unfortunate Florida Derby, but on paper, he looks good. Will he have the luck?
17.	Done Talking	Hamilton Smith	Sheldon Russell	50-1
He seems unlikely to step up to this level of competition.
18.	Sabercat	Steve Asmussen	Corey Nakatani	30-1
I can’t see him featuring much beyond the start.
19.	I’ll Have Another	Doug O’Neill	Martin Gutierrez	12-1
I like this horse a lot, though it’s a tough field – he’s my longshot and I would not be surprised to see him near the winner’s circle.
20.	Liaison	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	50-1
I haven’t been that impressed by his efforts this year and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday.

Prediction: Union Rags, Gemologist, Hansen, Creative Cause
Longshot: I’ll Have Another/Alpha

You Can’t Scare Me, I’m Sticking to the Union (Rags)

admin — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 16:20:03 +0000

Apologies for the radio silence of late; I’ve been busy with the day job and writing and coding for other outlets that actually pay me, but with Triple Crown buildup in full swing, I’m back in action.

I’m excited that we have another horse with local connections to follow in Union Rags, and I was happy to help out the good people of TrackPack PA with some (hopefully cogent) thoughts on the colt and his appeal around these parts. Check out the trailer to the resulting documentary, and come back later in the week for the full film.

In the meantime, I’m always online as @superfecta – follow along! Here’s hoping we can all look forward to some amazing Jamie Wyeth prints of Union Rags as his career progresses.

Breeders’ Cup 2011: Saturday Wrap-up

admin — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 00:38:27 +0000

No doubt Goldikova’s final race will be many people’s chief memory of the day – add in some truly bizarre results throughout the weekend, and this year’s Breeders’ Cup looks like a bit of a head-scratcher in retrospect. But think of the high points: Joseph O’Brien (surely, the only jockey in the world who towers over me) wins one for his dad, we have some some exciting 2-year-olds to watch for next year, a ‘freebie’ horse winning a Breeders’ Cup race in the excellent Amazombie, and a thrilling result in the Classic. While I did not hit the Exes Exacta (Mike Smith and Chantal Sutherland facing one another in a real race), I did have money on both Drosselmeyer and Game On Dude, so I at least made up a little bit of what was otherwise a terrible wagering weekend (for me).

Let the (very, very confusing) Horse of the Year discussion get going…it’s not often I’m glad I’m not a voter!

Breeders’ Cup 2011: Friday Wrap-up

admin — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 13:28:05 +0000

Some quick highlights from Friday: Secret Circle looked sharp, but Shumoos was perhaps more exciting finishing just behind him. And there were some great longshot wins from Musical Romance and Perfect Shirl. My Miss Aurelia looks to have a bright future, and I really need to make back all I lost with a strong showing Saturday!

Breeders’ Cup Classic

admin — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 21:40:27 +0000

And so, on to the main event – will something happen that could knock Goldikova off the top of Twitter’s trending topics? Follow along to find out…we’ll be posting our customary wrapups-with-Blingees after key races on both Friday and Saturday (with or without any jockeyfights).

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Prayer for Relief	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	30-1
Can’t see it happening.
2.	Flat Out	Alex Solis	Charles L. Dickey	6-1
Seems to be coming into his own, but he couldn’t beat Havre de Grace in the Woodward.
3.	Drosselmeyer	Mike Smith	William Mott	15-1
Last year’s Belmont winner has proven his victory was no fluke – could hit the board.
4.	Ruler On Ice	Garrett Gomez	Kelly Breen	30-1
This Belmont winner still needs to work on that.
5.	So You Think	Ryan Moore	Aidan O’Brien	5-1
Most well-traveled horse in the field apparently likes working on dirt…
6.	Ice Box	Corey Nakatani	Nichaolas P. Zito	30-1
His recent efforts have not inspired confidence.
7.	Rattlesnake Bridge	Calvin Borel	Kiaran McLaughlin	30-1
Seems overmatched here.
8.	Game On Dude	Chantal Sutherland	Bob Baffert	10-1
Comes in with a nice record; the Chantal Sutherland/Bob Baffert combo should be the most telegenic in the field.
9.	Stay Thirsty	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12-1
Travers winner is certainly talented, but I’d prefer his chances next year.
10.	Havre de Grace	Ramon Dominguez	Larry Jones	3-1
I want her to win because she’s the best, not just because she’s The Filly.
11.	Headache	Paco Lopez	Michael Maker	30-1
Won last time out, but a huge step up in class.
12.	Uncle Mo	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	5-2
The Dirt Mile would have been perfect.
13.	To Honor and Serve	Jose Lezcano	William Mott	12-1
Flying under the radar a bit here…worth watching.

Predictions: Havre de Grace, So You Think, Stay Thirsty, Game On Dude
Longshot: Drosselmeyer

Breeders’ Cup Mile

admin — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 21:15:41 +0000

The moment you have all been waiting for – the Goldikova show! With the exception of the connections of the horses running against her (and one would imagine that even some of them are hoping she’ll make history), it would be hard to find anyone not looking for the French star to end her career with a fourth Breeders’ Cup Mile victory.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Goldikova	Olivier Peslier	Freddy Head	7-5
I’d never bet against her, for sentimental or cash-related reasons. Let’s do it!
2.	Zoffany	Ryan Moore	Aidan P. O’Brien	20-1
Looked great last year, but then ran into Frankel – did it hurt his confidence?
3.	Courageous Cat	Patrick Valenzuela	William I. Mott	8-1
Certainly effective against American milers, but will have much more to do here.
4.	Mr. Commons	Mike Smith	John A. Shirreffs	20-1
Seems to prefer turf miles, but again, he’s not faced Goldikova.
5.	Gio Ponti	Ramon Dominguez	Christophe Clement	4-1
I hate to root against such a wonderful horse, but I will be in this instance. Hope for a good second.
6.	Get Stormy	Garrett Gomez	Thomas M. Bush	15-1
Very honest horse – could see him hitting the board.
7.	Jeranimo	Martin Garcia	Mike Pender	20-1
Has never been terribly consistent.
8.	Byword	Maxime Guyon	Andre Fabre	12-1
Has faced some impressive European fields and should finish well.
9.	Court Vision	Robby Albarado	Dale L. Romans	30-1
Seems to have lost a step this year.
10.	Sidney’s Candy	John Velazquez	Todd A. Pletcher	15-1
A fine horse, but I can’t see it being his day.
11.	Strong Suit	Richard Hughes	Richard Hannon	10-1
Another Frankel victim, but one who has rebounded of late.
12.	Compliance Officer	Alex Solis	Bruce Brown	30-1
Has done very well since being claimed, but has never faced this company.
13.	Turallure	Julien Leparoux	Charles Lopresti	8-1
Another solid North American contender, but this field goes to 11.

Predictions: Goldikova, Gio Ponti, Strong Suit, Byword
Longshot: Byword

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

admin — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 20:48:48 +0000

2 year olds. On dirt. Cue often-misguided early Derby buzz.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Take Charge Indy	James Graham	Patrick B. Byrne	30-1
Looked very tired in his last race (and I say this as a fan of his dam, Take Charge Lady).
2.	Dullahan	Kent Desormeaux	Dale L. Romans	8-1
Half to Mine That Bird tries the dirt. Looked good on turf, but will his form translate?
3.	Crusade	Julien Leparoux	Aidan P. O’Brien	12-1
European invader also a dirt debutant.
4.	Drill	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	8-1
Still learning, but worth keeping an eye on.
5.	Hansen	Ramon Dominguez	Michael J. Maker	10-1
Undefeated in two starts and generating some buzz.
6.	Prospective	Luis Contreras	Mark E. Casse	30-1
Won two out of three at Woodbine.
7.	Creative Cause	Joel Rosario	Mike Harrington	7-2
Looks bred for turf, but seems to love the dirt. Impressive Norfolk winner.
8.	Speightscity	Corey Nakatani	Gary Contessa	20-1
Big step up in class, but they are all only 2.
9.	Alpha	Garrett Gomez	Kiaran P. McLaughlin	15-1
Second to Union Rags in the Champagne.
10.	Union Rags	Javier Castellano	Michael R. Matz	2-1
Undefeated buzz horse looks a strong favorite here.
11.	Daddy Long Legs	Ryan Moore	Aidan P. O’Brien	12-1
Another European horse, but with a very American pedigree.
12.	Fort Loudon	Luis Gerardo	Stanley Gold	20-1
Very experienced, but another taking a jump up in class.
13.	Optimizer	Robby Albarado	D. Wayne Lukas	15-1
Another who looks like he could go for either turf or dirt.

Predictions: Union Rags, Dullahan, Creative Cause, Alpha
Longshot: Prospective

Breeders’ Cup Turf

admin — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 20:27:29 +0000

Insert ‘European Vacation’ jokes here…and expect a blanket finish from the stars who have flown in from across the pond.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	St Nicholas Abbey	Joseph P. O’Brien	Aidan O’Brien	9-2
Certainly very accomplished, but I think Sarafina has his number this time.
2.	Sarafina	Christophe Lemaire	Alain De Royer-Dupre	5-2
While the Arc->Breeders’ Cup trip hasn’t worked well in the past, she could do it.
3.	Dean’s Kitten	Ramon Dominguez	Michael J. Maker	10-1
I suppose some Americans have to enter, and he’s bred for it.
4.	Stately Victor	Mike Smith	Michael J. Maker	30-1
Can’t see it happening.
5.	Teaks North	Javier Castellano	Justin Sallusto	20-1
Has some good US turf results, but he’ll never beat this group.
6.	Await the Dawn	Julien Leparoux	Aidan O’Brien	7-2
Should be a very serious threat.
7.	Sea Moon	Ryan Moore	Sir Michael R. Stoute	4-1
Will the lost training time this week affect him? Looks solid.
8.	Brilliant Speed	John Velazquez	Thomas Albertrani	20-1
Would have a great deal of work to do.
9.	Midday	Tom Queally	Sir Henry Cecil	4-1
Has had some bad luck this year, but eschewed the F&M Turf for this one – she has a definite shot.

Predictions: Sarafina, Midday, Sea Moon, Await the Dawn
Longshot: We’ll pretend Midday is a longshot.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

admin — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 20:01:26 +0000

Or, the race that Uncle Mo should have been running in. You know this.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	The Factor	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	7-2
Bad luck last time out, but has he returned to his best form?
2.	Shackleford	Jesus Castanon	Dale Romans	7-2
Ran out of gas before, but this could be his perfect distance.
3.	Tapizar	Garrett Gomez	Steven Asmussen	20-1
Looked good in a confidence-building allowance win.
4.	Tres Borrachos	Joel Rosario	Martin F. Jones	30-1
Last won in July, but again, this could be the right distance.
5.	Wilburn	Julien Leparoux	Steven M. Asmussen	4-1
Can’t seem to lose lately, even when encountering trouble.
6.	Irrefutable	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	12-1
Seems to prefer a shorter race, but interesting to see him here.
7.	Jersey Town	Cornelio Velasquez	Barclay Tagg	15-1
Cigar Mile winner finishes in the money frequently.
8.	Caleb’s Posse	Rajiv Maragh	Donnie K. Von Hemel	5-1
Should relish this cut back in distance after the Indiana Derby experiment.
9.	Trappe Shot	John Velazquez	Kiaran McLaughlin	3-1
Outside post may finally give him a chance for a clean break.

Predictions: Wilburn, Trappe Shot, The Factor, Tapizar
Longshot: Jersey Town