To that end, I always look forward to playing with the C-J Derby Data Track (and was pleased to discover its origins [...]]]> Until tomorrow afternoon’s post position draw, the only Derby trail action is analyzing (and overanalyzing) the contenders’ works and every possible bit of data available, no matter how tangential.

To that end, I always look forward to playing with the C-J Derby Data Track (and was pleased to discover its origins in a post at TheRail); one of the options might prove particularly salient when comparing this year’s hype horses to last year’s results — proven ability to handle traffic. Street Sense and Hard Spun had a ‘yes’ in that column; Curlin a no. Beyond the overall ‘experience’ tag, this is a factor I like paying attention to. Horses with the dreaded ‘no’ this year include quite a few I do like – including Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Denis of Cork, Smooth Air, Gayego and, of course, Big Brown. If I were judging by that factor alone, it would make Visionaire, Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Colonel John look particularly attractive.

But adding in another factor complicates matters; if I go by highest Beyers, Bob Black Jack heads straight for the top of the list (which, if anything, looks very ‘sprinty’), followed by Big Brown, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune and Eight Belles – no one else has cracked the 100 mark; Colonel John’s highest is a 95.

Two BRIS speed ratings of 100 or higher yields a more select group — only Big Brown, Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Cool Coal Man.

Whenever I mix and match the factors I’m most interested in, three horses keep coming back to the top: Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Visionaire.

So, with all that, who do I like (at least in the pre-post-position-draw world)? It’s looking something like this:

• Big Brown – The Big Brown show beings in earnest today
• Colonel John – Seems to like Churchill Downs
• Denis of Cork – Don’t like his prep, but it was a nice work
• Eight Belles – Looked pretty good the other day – and drew an outside post for the Oaks
• Gayego – Not convinced he is a 1 1/4 horse, but he’s talented
• Pyro – I’m still not convinced, but he keeps popping up
• Smooth Air - Health concerns remain?
• Tale of Ekati - If Barclay Tagg is happy, I’m happy
• Visionaire – Worked in his usual style
• Z Fortune – Still love his sire, Siphon

I’m still grumbling about Tomcito’s absence (especially after a nice work yesterday – I’d happily toss Anak Nakal, Z Humor and Cowboy Cal to let him run) and that of an also-eligible list, but at least I have the Belmont to look forward to.

It’s worth checking out the short article on Big Brown’s former trainer, Pat Reynolds, as well – he’s another one who got Curlined (and he suggests that he sold for considerably more than the reported $3 million). He mentions Big Brown’s odd patch of white on his left side (check out Barbara Livingston’s photo of it here — and a rather dramatic shot of him acting up in the Saratoga paddock before his first race); anyone who read King of the Wind as a child can probably read far too much into the white spot.

Kentucky Derby winning odds

Naturally, you are now [...]]]> The world’s best three year old is…not Big Brown (gasp!) The latest World Thoroughbred Rankings have placed Australia’s Weekend Hussler at the top of his age group; his 122 point ranking (tying for 8th in the world overall) equals that of Hard Spun and world-beaters like Ramonta and Viva Pataca.

Naturally, you are now wondering how the committee might have overlooked War Pass and the aforementioned Big Brown; well, here’s how — they didn’t win 5 G1 races over the past six months (nor do they have 8 wins out of 10 lifetime starts like the Antipodean sprinter). Indeed, Weekend Hussler is the only three-year-old who makes the list.

All told, US-based horses have a good showing in the rankings– obviously Curlin is well clear of the rest of the pack with a top rating of 130; the next installment should include Triple Crown results, so some of our local three-year-olds should make the list too. In case you were wondering, Curlin’s 130 equals Ghostzapper’s top ranking — which suggests that Curlin’s could be even higher by the end of the year. One wonders where Hard Spun might have ranked had he continued racing…but I digress.

As for Weekend Hussler, he’s aiming for another G1 win by the end of his season. Good luck to his connections!

Barbaro’s death: for those of us working at Penn Vet at the time, it was probably less of a shock than [...]]]> 2008 is here at last, and while it remains a slow news week, let’s finally get to our 2007 recap. First, we’ll revisit the biggest news stories in racing in something approaching chronological order:

1. Barbaro’s death: for those of us working at Penn Vet at the time, it was probably less of a shock than it was to the general population, but it certainly got racing back in the mainstream media.
2. Invasor wins the Dubai World Cup. He is the best.
3. Lava Man may not be at his best these days, but he can still win the Big Cap if required.
4. The 2007 Triple Crown series: each race was superb for different reasons. Street Sense gave us a nice Derby, Curlin did a fine job in the Preakness and Rags to Riches supplied what was probably the most exciting Belmont finish in a very long while. Hard Spun hung in for everything and in retrospect was rather impressive.
5. Royal Ascot: Miss Andretti steps up in style.
6. Equine influenza hits Australia, causing racing and breeding chaos.
7. Synthetic surfaces are all the rage, although hard data about them is mysteriously absent.
8. John Henry’s death: the old guy is still remembered for his temper as much as his success on the track
9. The Breeders’ Cup: Curlin looks the part, but the big day is marred by the death of George Washington.
10. Every horse in training retires (well, perhaps it just seems like it).

We should have plenty to look forward to this year; the returns I am most anticipating are (fingers crossed) those of Rags to Riches and Curlin. Showing Up has been turning in great works and that suggests a fun year in American turf is in store. Let’s not forget Magnificience [sic] either…

Finally, just because I like you, lucky reader, you get my top 10 beers of 2007 — if you see them, give them a try:

1. Avery/Russian River Collaboration, Not Litigation – USA
2. Bell’s Batch 8000 – USA
3. Berliner Kindl Weisse - Germany
4. Dogfish Head Fed-Extra Mild – USA
5. Dogfish Head Baltic Porter – USA
6. Elysian Fields ESB (hand pump) – USA
7. Russian River Pliny the Elder – USA
8. Stone XI Anniversary (on tap) – USA
9. Troubadour Obscura – Belgium
10. Thomas Hooker Liberator – USA

Tiago performed well in his first outing against older horses in the Goodwood Handicap (Lava Man was scratched in favor of a race next weekend), although he was certainly tested by Awesome Gem — nevertheless, [...]]]> It was quite a weekend of racing; things are shaping up nicely for the Breeders’ Cup. First, the West Coast:

Tiago performed well in his first outing against older horses in the Goodwood Handicap (Lava Man was scratched in favor of a race next weekend), although he was certainly tested by Awesome Gem — nevertheless, his victory was very professional. I would also like to see more of third-place finisher Lewis Michael, perhaps in a slightly shorter race; I believe he has a lot of potential but has never quite found his rhythm although he seems comfortable on both dirt and grass. Some may recall he finished third to a horse named Barbaro in the Florida Derby and did not look bad in that defeat; I’d like to see him in the Dirt Mile.

Nashoba’s Key switched back to grass for the Yellow Ribbon and still remains unbeaten, holding off a strong challenge from Citronnade. As I’ve mentioned before, the Filly & Mare Turf division is going to be the hardest one to handicap — but more on that later. It is perhaps more impressive to consider that Nashoba’s Key began this winning streak when she began her racing career earlier this year as a four-year-old and she seems to improve with each race.

Switching to the East Coast, but staying with the girls on grass, the Flower Bowl was certainly an interesting race. Lahudood set a stakes record in her win (her first graded win in America, as a helpful reader has pointed out), but Roskina (one of my picks) was a fine second ahead of Wait a While. It seems that the talented My Typhoon was not a huge fan of the very firm going, as she was never a factor (but she should not be discounted come Breeders’ Cup day). As mentioned above, the Filly & Mare Turf division is full of talent already — once everyone else ships in from Europe, it’s practically a toss-up since a good argument can be made for any number of top horses. It’s going to be a highlight of Breeders’ Cup day.

Discreet Cat’s return to the races in the Vosburgh did not play out as planned; his dull third was not a particularly confidence-inspiring performance, but the excuses are built-in — the long layoff, he needed the race, he needed more distance (although he certainly did not seem to need it at that particular point in time), etc. But the good news is that it means the new Dirt Mile will have a marquee contender, which is something it probably needed — and it should also mean that he needs to stay in training next year to really prove himself. If anything, the victory by Fabulous Strike should continue to raise his sire Smart Strike’s stud fee — three grade I wins for his offspring in one weekend (see English Channel and Curlin below) cannot hurt.

Back on the turf, English Channel looked tremendous in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (his second victory in the race, which is a remarkable statistic these days for a stallion); I don’t know whether that means he’s quite in the same league as some of the expected European heavy-hitters, but it was a gutsy run and a very encouraging sign. It would be nice to see more horses with a career of consistent top-level performances. Given that he was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf as a 3-year old and third last year, he does have a good shot, but it’s going to be a tough race.

The Distaff division is clearly missing Rags to Riches; Unbridled Belle looked good beating stablemate Indian Vale in the Beldame although Ginger Punch did not seem quite her usual self. While Unbridled Belle seems to be coming into her own, she’s not really in the same class as Rags to Riches and the division is poorer for her absence. Without her, it’s a reasonably solid, but somewhat uninspiring group. However, I’ve always maintained that winning the Del Cap can propel a mare on to bigger and better things, and Unbridled Belle clearly took that to heart — not bad for a $4,000 purchase.

Finally, of course, the Classic division. As predicted, Hard Spun bested Street Sense, but he had everything his own way in a tiny field and on a surface he loves. He’s unlikely to get to set the pace and lead wire to wire in the Classic, which seems to be his preferred running style; Street Sense didn’t look tired to me as much as not necessarily pushed to his full potential — the race seemed more of a rehearsal for him. As I’ve said before, I like Hard Spun a lot and would love him at a mile (and he looked fine at the 1 1/8 as well), but I’m not sure he loves the 1 1/4 distance, and Street Sense does. As ever, trainer Carl Nafzger made no excuses and looks forward to the next dance:

Carl Nafzger, handler of Street Sense, was gracious in defeat. “It was up to him at the head of the lane to get by Hard Spun,” he said, “but he just outran us. We were right there and we got beat; that’s horseracing, no excuses. But we’re ready for next time.”

Curlin proved me wrong, gamely holding off Lawyer Ron in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, although Lawyer Ron didn’t do himself any favors — he seemed rank early on and was in the center of the track for much of the race. It could easily be argued that he just prefers Saratoga to Belmont — but even if that is the case, it seems there was some concern from trainer Steve Asmussen that Lawyer Ron’s pressure was a tough challenge for Curlin:

Asmussen called the Gold Cup “trophies in their own right” but acknowledged it was not his ultimate goal. That comes in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 27 at Monmouth Park.

“Everyone knows the Classic is the pinnacle,” he said. “And I’m extremely concerned that he left too much out there today.”

The bottom line is that all the Classic contenders who raced this past weekend looked good and will likely go off at relatively short odds on come the evening of Breeders’ Cup Saturday, but I can imagine quite a few scenarios in which a European horse runs off with the prize. We’ll have to wait and see who ships in…