Superfectablog v3.0 » Goldikova

Breeders’ Cup Mile

admin — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 21:15:41 +0000

The moment you have all been waiting for – the Goldikova show! With the exception of the connections of the horses running against her (and one would imagine that even some of them are hoping she’ll make history), it would be hard to find anyone not looking for the French star to end her career with a fourth Breeders’ Cup Mile victory.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1.	Goldikova	Olivier Peslier	Freddy Head	7-5
I’d never bet against her, for sentimental or cash-related reasons. Let’s do it!
2.	Zoffany	Ryan Moore	Aidan P. O’Brien	20-1
Looked great last year, but then ran into Frankel – did it hurt his confidence?
3.	Courageous Cat	Patrick Valenzuela	William I. Mott	8-1
Certainly effective against American milers, but will have much more to do here.
4.	Mr. Commons	Mike Smith	John A. Shirreffs	20-1
Seems to prefer turf miles, but again, he’s not faced Goldikova.
5.	Gio Ponti	Ramon Dominguez	Christophe Clement	4-1
I hate to root against such a wonderful horse, but I will be in this instance. Hope for a good second.
6.	Get Stormy	Garrett Gomez	Thomas M. Bush	15-1
Very honest horse – could see him hitting the board.
7.	Jeranimo	Martin Garcia	Mike Pender	20-1
Has never been terribly consistent.
8.	Byword	Maxime Guyon	Andre Fabre	12-1
Has faced some impressive European fields and should finish well.
9.	Court Vision	Robby Albarado	Dale L. Romans	30-1
Seems to have lost a step this year.
10.	Sidney’s Candy	John Velazquez	Todd A. Pletcher	15-1
A fine horse, but I can’t see it being his day.
11.	Strong Suit	Richard Hughes	Richard Hannon	10-1
Another Frankel victim, but one who has rebounded of late.
12.	Compliance Officer	Alex Solis	Bruce Brown	30-1
Has done very well since being claimed, but has never faced this company.
13.	Turallure	Julien Leparoux	Charles Lopresti	8-1
Another solid North American contender, but this field goes to 11.

Predictions: Goldikova, Gio Ponti, Strong Suit, Byword
Longshot: Byword

Post-Preakness ‘Potential’ Post

admin — Mon, 23 May 2011 18:55:09 +0000

Another year, another No Triple Crown. But that is not to say that this year’s Triple Crown season has not been far more interesting than one might have predicted just a few weeks ago – indeed, the possibilities for some of this year’s crop of three-year-olds going forward is actually quite intriguing (which is more than can be said for what is left of the older horse cohort). Whether it is the result of luck or simply a slower-maturing group than we are used to seeing, we’re finally starting to see some potential stars emerge.

First, Animal Kingdom – if it had not been for some bad luck and traffic trouble slowing him down near the top of the stretch, he might have won the Preakness; his gutsy second-place effort demonstrated that he is not just a one-hit wonder. Given that this was only his second start on conventional dirt (and bearing in mind that even some dirt horses don’t love Pimlico’s track – recall that Calvin Borel felt that Rachel Alexandra did not handle the surface well in her Preakness victory), it was a tremendous effort. He is by far the most interestingly-bred top-class horse running in the US at this point, and while he is still lightly-raced, there are so many potential avenues for him, given his affinity for a variety of surfaces (and, perhaps, distances). He could easily switch to turf or synthetics and back again; I would love to see him get a grass win (or two) in before coming back for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the fall. As for dirt races, the Belmont looks absolutely ideal for him, and a rubber match would be great for publicity and crowds on Belmont day. It is easy to imagine him pointing for the Dubai World Cup next year; I’d love to see that as a target with more turf racing following on – perhaps even a race in Europe. Ultimately, he has great potential to win Breeders’ Cup races on difference surfaces – that would be very interesting indeed. Becoming a surface triple threat like Einstein would cement him as my serious horse crush.

Of course, we should not overlook Preakness winner Shackleford; his performance more than made up for his pre-race appearance and behaviour. I was becoming quite concerned about having included him in my exacta and superfecta during the post parade and especially as they loaded in – I was nearly certain he was going to finish near the back of the pack after a brief initial lead. But as everyone now knows, that just how Shackleford rolls: looking a mess before the race is a good sign for him. And let’s give credit to jockey Jesus Castanon – not only was it a great ride, but it was his first time riding a Grade I winner. One expects it will become rather more routine for him now. While I don’t see Shackleford relishing the Belmont distance, he also possesses versatility potential – with his speed and style, he could excel at a mile. And while I would have preferred to see everyone heading to Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line, I can’t complain about Shackleford topping my (boxed) exacta – it was more remuneratively rewarding, if not as pleasing from a sentimentality point of view.

I am also looking forward to seeing Nehro in the Belmont; along with Animal Kingdom and Shackleford, he seems to be the best of his year (at least until Toby’s Corner returns). I cannot say I’m terribly impressed by Dialed In (beyond his closing fractions in the Derby), and clearly Midnight Interlude doesn’t have what it takes to run against these competitors, but Mucho Macho Man has a lot of room for improvement – he could be a different horse by the time Saratoga comes around.

Other disappointments on Preakness day included NBC failing to show the Dixie Stakes – especially as the race marked the winning return and, as we now know, the finale for the very talented (and multi-surface-loving) Paddy O’Prado. I’ve been pleased with the switch to Versus overall, but once things moved back to NBC, we were back to human interest stories instead of racing. I don’t mind a few of those, but two minutes could not have been carved out to show this race? Given that they were promoting their Saratoga broadcasts later this summer, it would have been a useful platform to introduce the casual audience to some competitors outside the Triple Crown crowd. It was a missed opportunity all around, not just for the hardcore racing fan. It would have been nice to see Paddy on the track, one last time.

But beyond Preakness day, there are early indications that we will have an exciting Breeders’ Cup to look forward to this fall: Goldikova kicked off her final campaign in winning style, taking the Prix d’Ispahan despite the distance being beyond her preferred mile. It was her thirteenth G1 win – and she may try to pick up number fourteen at Royal Ascot as part of her journey back to a potential fourth Breeders’ Cup. Perhaps next year her more-than-earned place will be taken by her little sister, Galikova? The possibilities are most interesting…

Breeders’ Cup 2010: Parting Thoughts

admin — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 22:55:04 +0000

High point: Goldikova's hat-trick

As we’ve already covered the Friday races, we’ll just reiterate these two points:

Do not cross Calvin Borel. Do feel free to pitch a reality TV show in which he becomes a boxer or MMA star – it may be wrong, but it would be a guilty pleasure. #jockeyfight

Life At Ten: luckily, she is doing well now. Is there more to the story? So it would seem.

Moving swiftly on to Saturday’s races…

Was there an issue with the turf course that led to Rough Sailing’s demise in the Juvenile Turf? If so, was it something identified by Workforce’s connections, who elected to scratch him, rather than run in the Turf – or was the apparently slippery nature brought about by their continual complaints that it was too firm? Or did the horse simply take a bad step? In any event, was anything done to ensure the safety of the other horses and jockeys who were to run over the same course later in the day, or was the lack of further accidents simply a happy accident?

It was good to see Big Drama take the Sprint – a talented horse who was finally put in the correct category – we’ll later get to some others who were not.

Chamberlain Bridge was another feel-good winner in the Turf Sprint – as much for coming from Penn National to win a Breeders’ Cup race as for our account balance.

The Great ESPN Breeders’ Cup/College Football Fail of 2010: this isn’t hard, folks – you just need a plan. The iPad app was actually fantastic for this sort of emergency (and so much better than the web site), but I should not have had to dash off to fetch it.

Uncle Mo certainly looked impressive in the Juvenile – it’s a shame his plan for next year is to have two starts, then to be out with a mild injury he picks up just before the Derby as a result of not racing enough.

Goldikova cubed! Huzzah! C’est magnifique! For those Europeans who think we in North America have been overlooking the great mare’s accomplishments, rest assurred she has a fanbase here as well – one that is thrilled to know she will be coming back next year to go for a fourpeat. Bring it! Let’s also give a special shout-out to a very game Gio Ponti in second place – it’s not his fault he keeps running into ladymonsters in the Breeders’ Cup.

The Dirt Mile had Quality Road’s name all over it – an interesting betting race, at his absolutely ideal distance – and one he was not entered in. It’s handy he’s retired now, so he won’t need to have a neon sign made that attaches to his bridle that declares I DO NOT WANT TO GO MUCH BEYOND A MILE, THANKS. One wonders whether he would have also excelled at turf miles (or sprints), given the Antipodean half of his pedigree – but we’ll never know. Still, having been on the Triple Crown trail and thrown a fit in the gate before last year’s Classic has probably given him a higher profile with the general public than Blame, who only seems to be mentioned in conjunction with Zenyatta – does that count for something?

After the increasingly annoying will-he-or-won’t-he-scratch game that took place before the Turf, Workforce is headed back to Europe – but luckily, he will be staying in training. Perhaps he’ll deign to run in the Turf next year. In any event, it was lovely to see Frankie Dettori’s Flying Dismount^TM – but imagine what Paddy O’Prado might have done in the race. Winning or finishing in the money would have been much more impressive than his Classic appearance – and even if Workforce had run, Paddy would still have been in with a fine shot. Next year? We should also recall the race as the final hurrah for Mine That Bird – not just a flukey Derby winner, but a top-rated 2-year-old before that who, apparently, just wasn’t that into D. Wayne Lukas. A side note: where was Chantal Sutherland?

We’ve already done our reasonably serious essayist bit on Zenyatta and Blame, so do check it out if you have not yet stopped by – and if you’d like a little light comedy on who should be Horse of the Year (if you’re into that sort of thing), check out this DRF blog which suggests you consider Uncle Mo, with his three lifetime starts, because that’s so similar to the time Secretariat was Horse of the Year at 2.

Enjoy!

On Perfection: Musings on Zenyatta and Goldikova

admin — Mon, 08 Nov 2010 15:08:21 +0000

Zenyatta and Blame, joined in history

Perfection can be a double-edged sword; no one suggests that missing out on maintaining it by inches has in any way tainted Zenyatta’s reputation, but it could be argued that its pursuit has, in some sense, held her back. While jockey Mike Smith may continue to lament his role in denying the great mare her perfect record, it must be noted that he was simply doing what had worked in that past (although many of his previous rides had made fans nervous, to say the least). But such a viewpoint denies Blame much of a role in his own victory – though he certainly had the better trip, he still deserves credit – and it’s difficult to think of a horse more aptly-named for this situation. It could equally fairly be suggested that a prep race against stiffer competition might have been useful – but there’s little point in second-guessing the paths that led to an ultimately thrilling race.

It was once said of Secretariat that he ‘should never have been beaten’ – but he was, and more than once – and yet we never dwell on the few losses, only the indelible wins. No one suggests that Angle Light or Onion was a better horse – merely that the circumstances that played out in their individual victories over Secretariat happened to favor them, allowing them to briefly step into his spotlight. Blame has a much more impressive record, but most will only remember him as the horse who happened to finish in front of Zenyatta – once. Those within the industry will argue over who should receive their vote for Horse of the Year, but it matters little beyond that sphere; the public has already chosen their champion.

Of course, there are a number of reasons for that; Zenyatta’s narrative is simply more compelling to the wider world than Blame’s – that might be different if there were better coverage and promotion of the major races he won, including the Stephen Foster and the Whitney, but the fact remains that even those who casually follow racing beyond the Triple Crown would be hard-pressed to notice them in the current media climate. If Blame were to race next year, at 5, he would have a better shot at securing that recognition – but he’s already retired and ready for inspection at the breeding shed. He’ll maintain his own sort of perfection – never finishing out of the money – but it is not the sort that resonates.

Goldikova's Breeders' Cup hat-trick

Goldikova, meanwhile, has never been stymied by a goal of perfection; if anything, finishing second behind the likes of Zarkava only burnished her reputation – and the fact that she has remained in training far beyond some of her keenest rivals, improving all the while, only suggests that she might have eventually gotten the better of them. One suspects that had Zarkava not had a perfect record coming into the Arc, she would not have been retired immediately after winning it – keeping her a spotless seven for seven. The fetish for perfection denied a spectacular filly the chance to prove what she was truly capable of – but Goldikova has carried on, and she has even been allowed to throw in the odd clunker, usually as a tune-up for a huge victory. Her eleven G1 wins are a testament to the fact that she has only raced at the highest level over the past few years. Even when running in races restricted to fillies and mares, there has been real competition – she has not even been entered in anything below G1 level since summer of 2008. Sometimes she did not have the best racing luck – but a few stray seconds or thirds did not lead anyone to doubt her greatness.

In a racing world where retirement after a handful of races is common for horses who gain even a modicum of fame, Zenyatta and Goldikova have both demonstrated that there is little reason for that to be the standard procedure. The odd loss may diminish the pursuit of perfection – but perfection is not a useful measure of greatness. Blame is a fine horse, but he will never carry the mantle both of these mares have worn so lightly; perhaps having written himself into their stories is mention enough.

Breeders’ Cup Pre-Entries: Saturday Races

admin — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 09:00:58 +0000

Two Triples?

And so, on to the Saturday Breeders’ Cup races – rumors that there are some other horses competing beyond Goldikova and Zenyatta are entirely true. While the two champion mares are, without question, the stars of the event, each race on the card has something worthwhile going on.

After all, there’s a Kentucky Derby winner, an Epsom Derby/Arc victor, an Arlington Millionaire and a Japanese champion in the mix on this card – that’s an illustrious supporting cast.

Juvenile Turf

Horse / Trainer (all horses carry 122 lbs)

Air Support / McGaughey
Pluck / Pletcher
Rogue Romance / McPeek
Soldat / McLaughlin
Madman Diaries / Ward
Major Gain / Catalano
Willcox Inn / Stidham
Deciphering Dreams / R. Dutrow
Banned / Proctor
Biondetti / al Zarooni
Dux Scholar / Stoute
Mantoba / Meehan
Master of Hounds / O’Brien
Utley / Gosden
Others entered -
Typhoon Slew / Maker
Rough Sailing / Stidham
Silver Medallion / Brown
Humble and Hungry / Correas IV

Notes: Biondetti has the Juvenile as his first preference, but is cross-entered here. It’s hard not to like Madman Diaries, given Wesley Ward’s recent record with turf juveniles; there will be some local Philly-area rooting interest if Rogue Romance, whose sire Smarty Jones is moving back to Pennsylvania, opts for this (though he has the Juvenile as his preference as well) and Utley, who though coming from Europe is American-bred and owned by George Strawbridge. While his baseball-related name may resonate with some, I’m more interested in the fact that he’s a half-brother to Rainbow View and Just as Well - and that his trainer keeps winning this race. Master of Hounds is also well worth watching.

Sprint

Horse (weight) / Trainer

Big Drama (126) / Fawkes
Smiling Tiger (124) / Bonde
Wise Dan (124) / Lopresti
Warrior’s Reward (126) / Wilkes
Riley Tucker (126) / Asmussen
Girolamo (126) / bin Suroor
Atta Boy Roy (126) / Lund
Supreme Summit (126) / Puype
Kinsale King (126) / O’Callaghan
Cash Refund (126) / Margolis
Hamazing Destiny (126) / Lukas
Pashito the Che (126) / Lake

Notes: Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Kinsale King is, like Zenyatta, a Guinness drinker, but he hasn’t raced since July. Big Drama and Warrior’s Reward are both heavyweights here, and I like Riley Tucker and Girolamo as well.

Turf Sprint

Horse (weight) / Trainer

Chamberlain Bridge (126) / Calhoun
Quick Enough (126) / O’Neill
Silver Timber (126) Brown
Unzip Me (123) / Jones
Stradivinsky (126) / R. Dutrow
Central City (126) / Werner
Grand Adventure (126) / Frostad
Tropic Storm (126) / C. Dollase
Due Date (126) / Margolis
Rose Catherine (121) / Pletcher
Bridgetown (124) / McPeek
California Flag (126) / Koriner
Canadian Ballet (123) / Rice
Kinsale King (126) / O’Callaghan
Others entered -
Waveline (123) / B. Cecil
Ravalo (126) / Barr
Lt. Hopeful (126) / Armstrong
Yield Bogey (126) / Kelly

Notes: With Kinsale King listing the Sprint as his first preference, Waveline should make the field – she’s been close behind Unzip Me, who has a great shot here, in the past. And while my intention is not to focus solely on the talented fillies in this race, Canadian Ballet is also interesting. As to the boys, I like seeing California Flag here, and think Silver Timber is a real threat.

Juvenile

Horse / Trainer (all horses carry 122 lbs)

Jaycito / Mitchell
J. B.’s Thunder / Stall Jr.
Uncle Mo / Pletcher
J P’s Gusto / Hofmans
Boys at Tosconova / R. Dutrow
Riveting Reason / Cho
Stay Thirsty / Pletcher
Madman Diaries / Ward
Rogue Romance / McPeek
Biondetti / al Zarooni
Murjan / Miller

Notes: It’s hard to see beyond Uncle Mo, and Boys at Tosconova will likely not go off at terribly interesting odds either. Rogue Romance may indeed end up being the value of the field – if he can finish ahead of those two.

Mile

Horse (weight) / Trainer

Court Vision (126) / R. Dutrow
Gio Ponti (126) / Clement
Proviso (123) / Mott
Society’s Chairman (126) / Attfield
Get Stormy (126) / Bush
The Usual Q.T. (126) / Cassidy
Sidney’s Candy (123) / Sadler
Beethoven (123) / O’Brien
Delegator (126) / bin Suroor
Goldikova (123) / Head
Paco Boy (126) / Hannon

Notes: Obviously, my chief interest here is in seeing Goldikova make history, should she win her third Breeders’ Cup race. I’d also love to see Proviso finish just behind her – though they will have a tough competitor in Paco Boy. Court Vision has proven himself on the grass and could well get a pieces of the purse, but here’s hoping for a threepeat. I’m presuming Gio Ponti will opt for the Classic – a good placing on dirt would do more for him in his next career than a second-place finish here.

Dirt Mile

Horse (weight) / Trainer

Dakota Phone (126) / Hollendorfer
Mad Flatter (126) / Thornbury
Awesome Gem (126) / C. Dollase
Crown of Thorns (126) / Mandella
Here Comes Ben (126) / Lopresti
Tizway (126) / Bond
Hurricane Ike (123) / Sadler
Cool Coal Man (126) / Zito
Morning Line (123) / Zito
Thiskyhasnolimit (123) / Asmussen
Gayego (126) / bin Suroor
Vineyard Haven (126) / bin Suroor
Mine That Bird (126) / Lukas
Tropic Storm (126) / C. Dollase
Others entered -
Aikenite (123) / Pletcher

Notes: I think this race is a bit unfairly maligned at times and I find this field quite interesting. Awesome Gem can continue to finish second (or could even win), but he’s now officially Marathon-bound, and I really like Gayego’s chances as well. Cool Coal Man also has a real opportunity, as does Hurricane Ike. While many are not expecting much, I don’t think it’s a bad place for Mine That Bird to try his luck once more – he’s another horse who may look better in retrospect than to present-day eyes, and it’s nice to see him taking a chance. Aikenite should make the race, as Morning Line and Tropic Storm should opt for other races.

Turf

Horse (weight) / Trainer

Behkabad (122) / Rouget
Debussy (126) / Gosden
Champ Pegasus (126) / Mandella
Paddy O’Prado (122) / Romans
Winchester (126) / Clement
Al Khali (126) / Mott
Telling (126) / Hobby
Red Desire (123) / Matsunaga
Dangerous Midge (126) / Meehan
Plumania (123) / Fabre
Workforce (122) / Stoute

Notes: While Paddy O’Prado’s connections have indicated that he’s more likely in the Classic, I’d really like to see him here; it’s going to be a fairly small field, with the two fillies, Red Desire and Plumania, likely opting for the Filly & Mare Turf, and that could open things up for an American horse. However, I see this race as Workforce’s to lose.

Classic

Horse (weight) / Trainer

Blame (126) / Stall Jr.
Zenyatta (123) / Shirreffs
Quality Road (126) / Pletcher
Lookin At Lucky (122) / Baffert
First Dude (122) / Romans
Dakota Phone (126) / Hollendorfer
Musket Man (126) / Ryan
Fly Down (122) / Zito
Haynesfield (126) / Asmussen
Crown of Thorns (126) / Mandella
Paddy O’Prado (122) / Romans
Etched (126) / McLaughlin
Espoir City (126) / Adachi
Gio Ponti (126) / Clement
Others entered -
Morning Line (122) / Zito
Pleasant Prince (122) / Ward

Notes: Sorry boys, this is about Zenyatta. I’m not dismissing Blame, who has a huge chance here – but I suspect we’ve never seen what Zenyatta can really do. Quality Road and Musket Man both seem suited to shorter races (and I hope we see a better-behaved Quality Road than we did last year), but the 3-year-olds get a nice weight break compared to some of their elders. Of course, it seems a bit unfair that Zenyatta, who is surely the largest horse in the field, carries only 123 lbs – but she does carry the weight of public expectation, which must count for something.

We’ll have a more detailed analysis of each race after post positions are drawn – check back for that!

Why I Am Excited About the Breeders’ Cup

admin — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 23:24:54 +0000

In a word: Goldikova. A second semi-word: threepeat. Let’s see it happen.

Goldikova Back With A Bang

admin — Tue, 25 May 2010 17:22:00 +0000

Goldikova (l) does her winning thing

Last year, Goldikova finished seventh in the Prix d’Ispahan, her yearly debut; it seemed that the extra furlong and soft going were not to her taste. There were no such questions this year – the 5-year-old mare set a new stakes record in the same race, capturing her eighth G1 victory. It was a narrow margin, to be sure, over the up-and-coming Byword, but the rest of the field (including Stacelita, who may need to regain some conditioning) was some distance back. While a threepeat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile is her goal this year, her next race could be nearly as starry – she is being pointed to the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, potentially taking on Paco Boy and Rip Van Winkle.

While the Breeders’ Cup is a long way away at this point, other Europeans to keep an eye on were in action last weekend – 3-year-old Richard Hannon-trained Canford Cliffs was impressive in the Irish 2000 Guineas, while Ballydoyle has another strong group of colts, headed by Jan Vermeer (impressive winner of the Gallinule Stakes) and St Nicholas Abbey. The 3-year-old filly ranks look equally strong (or, perhaps, stronger – at least, in France) with the green-but-promising Sarafina just besting Deluxe in the Prix Saint-Alary. Both fillies may head to the Prix de Diane in June – and we may see one or both of them in the Breeders’ Cup at some point.

Given the somewhat scattered picture our own 3-year-olds paint, perhaps more overseas horses will consider heading to Churchill Downs this year – why not take the opportunity to show it can be good breeding and a lack of medication that win big races, rather than an affinity for Santa Anita? I’m of the opinion that the track surface played a smaller role than widely assumed in the European domination of the last two Breeders’ Cups, and would love to see that put to the test this fall. Of course, we have plenty of racing to look forward to before that point – but it’s always worth watching what’s going on abroad.

Here in the US, NYRA got a loan, which should keep things running for a while – and the Met Mile is on tap for the long weekend…in the meantime, why not celebrate Irish-bred Goldikova’s continued magnificence by purchasing The Divine Comedy’s new album, Bang Goes The Knighthood, out on the 31st?

Bad News/Good News

admin — Thu, 20 May 2010 17:16:47 +0000

Hasili VIII: A New Hope?

D. Wayne Lukas may not be sending Dublin to the Belmont, but he’ll be busy nonetheless; he’s just become the trainer for Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. The move had been rumored for a few weeks, but it was confirmed this week with the horse setting out from New Mexico for Kentucky – this time, in a trailer not driver by his old trainer.

Apparently Chip Woolley’s handling of the popular gelding was not quite good enough, as just about anyone can get a horse to win the Derby and finish in the money in the other two Triple Crown races. That leads us to a small aside – how frequently do we see the previous year’s Derby, Preakness and Belmont champions all residing in a new trainer’s barn by the following spring? Granted, Rachel Alexandra had already made the move by Preakness time, but that was just days after her Oaks win; all statistics in this area are welcomed.

It seems the switch was handled with the requisite class and communication we have come to expect:

“I appreciate the opportunity I had to train him and I wish him the very best and hope he has a long career and wins 100 races,” Woolley said. “I will be pulling for him every time he goes into the gate. I thought I had a good bond with him, but I guess that doesn’t really matter now.

“Nobody ever prepares for something like this,” Woolley said. “I had had a lot of assurances that this was all just a rumor and I was keeping the horse. But this is the nature of the game. You’ve got to get up in the morning and do the same thing, whether you have the Derby winner or a $25,000 claimer. I just hope we can get another one.”

Woolley said he was not invited to come by and say goodbye to the horse.

It would seem that Woolley has joined the John Servis Club – win the Derby, get dropped by your bigger clients. Here’s hoping both trainers find better luck (and, perhaps, more loyal clients) in the near future.

More cheerily, we have an exciting return to the races to look forward to this weekend – dual Breeders’ Cup Mile champion Goldikova will take on the talented Stacelita in the Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp on Sunday. It will be the seasonal debut for both mares, and both are likely a bit vulnerable here after long layoffs. Let us recall that Goldikova finished seventh out of nine (or Seven of Nine, if you prefer) in this race last year to inferior competition over a soft course, although she returned to her winning ways next time out. Stacelita is also looking to bounce back from a seventh-place finish, albeit a respectable one – she faced a tough group in the Arc and finished better than most.

Also Sunday’s Longchamp card is the Prix Saint-Alary, which will feature Deluxe, the latest racing offspring of broodmare superstar Hasili. The 3-year-old filly is unbeaten in two starts so far, but this will be her first effort in Group 1 company (and her first shot at a 1 1/4 mile distance – her previous wins came at a mile). Stacelita won this race last year before heading to victory in the Prix de Diane – she’s as fine a role model as Deluxe’s many illustrious half-siblings.

Any guesses as to the potential odds for her to complete an Arc/Breeders’ Cup double?

What Failure Really Looks Like

admin — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 18:30:17 +0000

This means you, NTRA

Let’s begin with a basic premise: getting a check for second is not a failure, but a non-working website is. With that in mind, let’s examine the events of the past weekend. For some reason, American racing at the highest level is hung up on success or ‘failure’ in an individual race – while this is most likely because our best horses simply do not race as often as their counterparts in Europe, Australia and Japan do, it serves as a useful reminder that we might take a longer view.

Let’s look at Goldikova’s career – it took her four races to get her first win for the year in 2008, and in her initial 2009 race (seven months after her first Breeders’ Cup Mile triumph), she finished a dismal seventh. Yet there were no calls to send her to the breeding shed or wailing and gnashing of teeth that she was past her best – she just went back to tougher training, returned to the races again about two months later and won her next three races. There was minor upset when she finished third in her prep race immediately before she came to defend her Breeders’ Cup title, but her connections simply took it as a sign that she needed the race; and, indeed, she put in another sparkling performance at Santa Anita.

Watching Rachel Alexandra’s performance on Saturday, I certainly did not see a wannabe broodmare (and I’d love to see it demonstrated that life as a broodmare is somehow ‘safer’ than life on the track for a top-level filly or mare – that certainly does not ring true anecdotally) – just a horse at sub-optimal fitness. She could easily follow Goldikova’s example and be back to her usual freakish self by May or June – and I’m pleased to see her connections are heading in that direction. While it’s a shame for everyone at Oaklawn who worked to make a showdown in the Apple Blossom a possibility, I would rather see them meet further down the line, when both are at peak fitness – although I am hopeful that Zardana will take on her stablemate, Zenyatta, in the race.

And so to Zenyatta, who is being rather overlooked simply because ‘Zenyatta wins‘ is less of a story than ‘Rachel finishes second’ – as expected, she’s still perfection personified (although it was a less ‘pretty’ race than we might normally see from her, but that’s more down to the way things unfolded). It’s wonderful to see her unbeaten streak continue (it’s churlish to argue with 15-0, unless we’re talking about Pepper’s Pride), but I know I’m not the only one wondering if the seam that opened for her on Saturday would have been found at another track – had she been running at, say, Belmont, she would have had quite a target on her back à la Smarty Jones. That’s not to say she would not have overcome it, since great horses make their own luck, but it would have been a real test for her – hopefully we’ll see her travel further afield (beyond Oaklawn and, one presumes, Churchill Downs) this year.

But before we leave Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra news, we must address the massive NTRA FAIL in their webcast of both races. One wonders what sort of traffic they were expecting if the other ten people complaining about it on Twitter could not get in – and it should have been simple enough to scale up the bandwidth in any event. After all, we were able to keep the Penn Vet server running when Barbaro was put down (despite no warning, not that we expected one) just by farming some predictable high-traffic items (e.g. photos, video) out to another server. It’s not hard. They would be wise to follow the #runserverlessbiz tweets from #SXSW – or just compare clouds and make a decision. And here’s a little more free consulting advice (I do normally charge a lot for something this straightforward, but I’m making a nice exception) – putting the video stream behind a login is a huge turnoff to casual or would-be fans. Sure, you want to gather data on users, but why not do it after they are already invested? I’m sure the stats should a huge dropoff between clicking on the ‘live’ link and actual signups – and that’s not surprising. The call to sign up needs to be somewhere else – unless the whole point of the login was to deter potential users. In that case, well done!

Check back tomorrow, when we’ll get back to reviewing the 3-year-olds, especially Odysseus, Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy…

Conspiracies and Countdowns

admin — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:57:21 +0000

Game on

Here’s a conspiracy theory for you – while Crisp certainly looked fine in her upset victory in the Santa Anita Oaks, it was a race Blind Luck ‘had to lose’ to stave off Derby fever – hence the change to her usual running style (and the troubled trip overall). An easy victory would have made it harder to argue that she should stick with her own sex (for now), and this keeps her on the road to the Kentucky Oaks, rather than the Derby. In all seriousness, the top three finishers all looked good – and Blind Luck, in particular, looked like she’d relish some extra distance. There’s always the Belmont…

I’m not entirely sold on the colts who ran last weekend (yet) – I liked Awesome Act’s performance in the Gotham, but I’m not quite ready to add him to my top list at present (although I have no good reason for that – I like a versatile horse who can perform on different surfaces); however, he definitely merits further consideration. The same goes for Sham winner Alphie’s Bet, the subject (along with his trainer, Alexis Barba) of a fine article by Joe Drape – I want to see how both horses look in their next starts.

The fact is that the Derby trail is simply not as compelling as what’s happening next Saturday – Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra are both making their yearly debuts. Zenyatta (pictured) has been assigned 127 pounds in the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita; while she’s carrying the high weight, she’s won with more, and the field should not offer her any trouble – she worked another bullet on Friday in preparation, and on paper, it’s another paid workout for her on Saturday.

As for Rachel Alexandra, not many have elected to take her on in the New Orleans Ladies; although she won’t be 100% fit, the field of four other mares should (in theory) still be easy pickings, even with the addition of John Sheriffs’ talented Brazilian trainee Zardana. Still, as this race is really a prep for the Apple Blossom (and it looks as though Rachel Alexandra has been bored with her layoff and needs a race), we’ll wait to see how things pan out – her last work was impressive. We’ll have more on both races as well as Lookin At Lucky’s 3-year-old debut later in the week.

Finally, while things did not pan out for St Trinians in the Big Cap, nicely won by Misremembered, another mare went against the boys and came away with a win – Proviso took home the Kilroe Mile in the final strides, becoming the first filly or mare to win the race. Formerly trained by Bobby Frankel and now in the care of Bill Mott, the British-bred bay has a starry pedigree (by Dansili, so she’s a grand-daughter of Hasili) and has finished within striking distance of Goldikova in France – perhaps she’ll prove a bigger threat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile this year…