I think it will be a good day for Aidan O’Brien (and the other foreign trainers) on balance — it would be hard to make it worse than the situation with George Washington last year — but whether that success will come in the Classic or elsewhere on the card remains to be seen.

Of course, I’m happy to offer my opinions in advance:

Marathon
1) Church Service – Solid G3 performer – might be enough to hit the board here
2) Add Heat – Local, but not a winner recently
3) Delightful Kiss – Best American hope in this race?
4) Sixties Icon – Class of the field; switch from turf the only issue
5) Muhannak – Solid European performer likes artificial surfaces
6) Zappa – Another California specialist
7) Big Booster – Distance specialist hasn’t won since April
Cedar Mountain – Son of Galileo wasn’t up to Europe’s best
9) Booyah – Versatile, but not a great record

Prediction: Muhannak, Sixties Icon, Delightful Kiss, Church Service

Turf Sprint
1) Hero’s Reward – Big step up in class
2) Fleeting Spirit – Filly has beaten tough fields in Europe
3) True to Tradition – More of a G2/G3 performer?
4) Only Answer - Another solid European filly, but probably not as big a threat
5) Salute the Count – Another class question
6) Storm Treasure – Has not won since March
7) Rouse the Cat – Not in this company
Diabolical – Recent form not great
9) Desert Code – Ditto
10) California Flag – Has never faced this level of competition
11) Idiot Proof – Unknown quantity on grass, despite success in dirt sprints
12) One Union – Last win in July
13) Get Funky – Could hit the board
14) Mr. Nightlinger – Won his last 5 races

Prediction: Fleeting Spirit, Mr. Nightlinger, Only Answer, Get Funky

Dirt Mile
1) Lewis Michael – The surface and distance may be just right for him
2) Surf Cat – Probably past his best
3) Slew’s Tizzy – Better at the G2 level?
4) Mast Track – Recent foot problems don’t inspire confidence
5) Two Step Salsa – Sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby
6) Pyro – Hitting the board lately and a recent Darley purchase
7) Albertus Maximus - Very much improved of late
Well Armed – Won here last time out, great record
9) Slew’s Tiznow – Won last time, but it was in August
10) Rebellion – Possibly better than his form suggests
11) My Pal Charlie – Super Derby winner
12) Lord Admiral – 7-year-old opts to try the new surface

Predictions: Lewis Michael, Well Armed, Lord Admiral, Albertus Maximus

Mile
1) Shakis – Always a solid effort
2) Kip Deville - Defending champ seems off his best
3) Precious Kitten – Nice filly, but this is a tough field
4) Goldikova – Has finished closer to Zarkava than anyone else on the card
5) Daytona – Usually good form a little off of late
6) Awesome Gem – If recent form holds, he’s due for another 7th-place finish
7) U S Ranger – Mile distance seems a bit of a stretch for him
Bold Chieftain – Better against California-restricted competition
9) War Monger – Last win was in January
10) Thorn Song – Could be improving at the right time
11) Whatsthescript – Effective in graded company, but inconsistent

Prediction: Goldikova, Shakis, Precious Kitten, Thorn Song

Juvenile
1) Munnings – How will he handle the surface?
2) Gallant Son – Emerald-Downs-based colt worked a bullet recently
3) Terrain – Solid record so far
4) Square Eddie – Has won in both Europe and N. America
5) Azul Leon – Disappointing last time out, but undefeated prior to that
6) Silent Valor - Fifth last time out over this surface
7) Elusive Bluff - Two wins on turf
Street Hero – Has a 3rd and a win at the G1 level
9) Mine That Bird – First effort outside Canada
10) Pioneerof the Nile – 3rd in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity
11) Midshipman – Bob Baffert’s current hope
12) Bushranger - Group 1 winner in Europe, but wide post not ideal
13) West Side Bernie – Good form thus far

Prediction: Square Eddie, Street Hero, Bushranger, Midshipman

Juvenile Turf
1) Ninth Client – May want more distance
2) City Style – Step up in class
3) Westphalia – Group 2 experience in Europe may be enough to get the job done
4) Donativum – Much improved since being gelded
5) Relatively Ready – Could well be a factor
6) Vaquero – 4th in his first G3 effort
7) Coronet of a Baron – Might prefer shorter distances
Paddy the Pro – Winner over synthetic surface in Ireland
9) Orthodox – Winner of a MSW last time out
10) Skipadate – Last two efforts have been close losses
11) Bittel Road - Very solid record at this point
12) Grand Adventure – First trip outside Canada for undefeated colt

Prediction: Westphalia, Donativum, Bittel Road, Grand Adventure

Sprint
1) Cost of Freedom – On a 3-race winning streak
2) Street Boss – Seemed a bit tired last time out
3) Fabulous Strike – Capable runner was 2nd in the Vosburgh
4) Midnight Lute – Defending champ’s last effort in August was a clunker
5) First Defence – Talented but inconsistent
6) Black Seventeen – Something of a surprise Vosburgh winner
7) In Summation – Often in the money, but has not won lately
Sing Baby Sing – Huge step up in class
9) Fatal Bullet – Seems to love synthetic surfaces

Prediction: Fabulous Strike, Street Boss, Cost of Freedom, Fatal Bullet

Turf
1) Better Talk Now – Veteran performer back for another shot
2) Red Rocks - Won this race 2 years ago, 3rd last year
3) Grand Couturier - Winner of his last 2 races, both G1s
4) Soldier of Fortune – Easy winner if he doesn’t have an Arc bump
5) Winchester – First time against elders for talented 3-year-old
6) Dancing Forever – Beautifully-bred, but may need things to go his way
7) Red Rock Canyon – Duke of Marmalade’s usual rabbit lent to Soldier of Fortune?
Spring House – Would have preferred to see underrated horse in the Marathon
9) Conduit – Something of a surprise entry, but worth watching
10) Out of Control – Solid at a mile; distance a question
11) Eagle Mountain – Mike de Kock entry could be dangerous

Prediction: Soldier of Fortune, Eagle Mountain, Conduit, Grand Couturier

Classic
1) Go Between – Pacific Classic winner likely outgunned here
2) Casino Drive – Complete question mark
3) Tiago – He’s probably better at a slightly shorter distance
4) Duke of Marmalade – If the Arc didn’t take much out, it could be his
5) Henrythenavigator – Fantastic miler. Not sure about the distance or surface.
6) Smooth Air – Not today
7) Student Council – Last win came in May
Raven’s Pass – If he likes the distance, he’ll be a threat
9) Curlin – Surface only big question for defending champ
10) Fairbanks – Might have won the Marathon
11) Colonel John – Known quantity in California
12) Champs Elysees – Unusual spot here, but could hit the board

Prediction: Curlin, Duke of Marmalade, Raven’s Pass, Colonel John

For more on the Friday races, check back here or here throughout the day.

At this point, there seem to be few challengers to Henrythenavigator’s dominance at the mile; New Approach has beaten him once, but then suffered two subsequent defeats when re-matched. The only other horse to finish in front of him is filly Saoirse Abu (another American-bred, this one by Mr. Greeley) who beat him at 2, but she has remained in filly races since that time – albeit in top company, taking on Natagora and Lush Lashes with respectable results.

With the number of top-class American-bred turf milers in this crop (including Henrythenavigator, who is by Kingmambo) it seems a shame no one seems to care much about this division Stateside – I still maintain that Hard Spun could have really excelled as a turf miler – but I digress.

Tomorrow’s feature is the two-mile Goodwood Cup; things look a bit easier for Yeats with last year’s winner, 5-year-old mare Allegretto, declared out with a minor foot injury. Yeats is by no means the only elder statesman in the race; the connections of nine-year-old Distinction are hoping for an upset. Yeats won this race in 2006 and will be carrying quite a bit of weight (something in the neighborhood of 138 pounds, if my math is not off, although that’s entirely possible — he enjoys a five pound penalty for his recent Gold Cup win) and his main rival may turn out to be stablemate Honolulu who seems to be improving at the right time (and who beat Distinction last time out).

But let’s return to Henrythenavigator for a moment; Aidan O’Brien is apparently considering pointing him for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, given the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Obviously things did not turn out so well last time Ballydoyle brought a turf miler to the Classic, but the surface may make a difference and there are some distance genes in there that suggest the mile and a quarter might suit him just as well as the mile — but he has yet to attempt either ‘new’ factor so far. It’s an intriguing possibility…

The real news this week is across the pond; Royal Ascot begins today. This year’s installment features the 200th running of the 2 1/2 mile Gold Cup — wouldn’t it be nice if we had such a fixture? While there is always a major European element, there promises to be a strong contingent from Australia shipping in for the King’s Stand Stakes (a G2 sprint) — Miss Andretti is favored (obviously there are no qualms about girls-against-boys here) but will have a tough race against fellow Antipodean (and last year’s winner) Takeover Target.

The St James’s Palace Stakes features Cockney Rebel and the Queen Anne Stakes heralds the return of George Washington. Of Gorgeous George, the BBC remarks:

His ability cannot be questioned but his quirky behaviour can cause some moments of concern which trainer Aidan O’Brien hopes will not be the case here, especially with filly Red Evie among his rivals.

If you are lucky enough to get some TV coverage for it, enjoy – the closest I’ll get is having a Pimm’s in hono(u)r of the occasion.

I’m not looking forward to taking on any of them, with Great Hunter, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday all sitting there, and now maybe this horse, who doesn’t really have a weak link in him. He may not be a superhorse, but he has every link in that chain strong.” Jones said. “This could be a suicide for anybody going into the Derby. They may have to run so good to win this coming race that it could take the Derby out of them. That’s my next concern. But just to be thinking we can compete with them is a good feeling.”

It sounds like the Blue Grass is shaping up to be a fantastic race. For another interesting point about Hard Spun’s victory in the Lane’s End, check out the Courier-Journal:

The time for 11/8 miles over Polytrack was a solid 1:49.41. More important, Hard Spun covered the last eighth-mile in 12.68 seconds and the final three-eighths in 37.74. Finishing the final eighth under 13 seconds and the final three-eighths under 38 in a 11/8-mile prep has been one of the most reliable indicators of whether a horse can win the Derby.

It’s certainly worth considering, but I still think it would be a lot of fun to see Hard Spun on the grass. Maybe later in the year…

There’s also a nice feature article on jockey Mario Pino in the Baltimore Sun; it’s great to see a locally-known rider get a shot at the big dance.

In Coolmore news, it looks as though George Washington is back in training and could potentially re-appear in time for a race at Royal Ascot. It also seems he did manage to get a few mares in foal (which, let’s be honest, is generally more than you can say for War Emblem), so perhaps it’s more of an immaturity issue than anything else.

But given the choice, would you rather breed to a Danehill with a reputation for odd behavior and a sketchy record at stud, or a Danehill who has been able to continue his racing and stud careers concurrently, like Gentleman’s Deal? Now that’s old school.

Whatever gloss they try to put on it – and Coolmore does gloss like no one else – this can be no more than a damage-limitation exercise. And if it makes business sense to retire a fit three-year-old with a good chance in the Guineas on last year’s form, then there must also be a strong suspicion that Magnier and his associates felt that Holy Roman Emperor’s best days might already be behind him.

After all, why race at three? By that logic, Halfbridled is the best filly ever to set foot on a track. Here is another well-considered excerpt:

In the 1980s, the Coolmore mafia was often criticised for retiring a horse as soon as it had won a Classic. Now, it seems even that is an optional extra, and it is not just Holy Roman Emperor’s ante-post backers who are – quite rightly – angry and baffled at the sudden exit of a sound, talented and Classically bred colt just weeks before the Guineas meeting.

Very good points indeed…but I am still left wondering why George Washington’s issues were not discovered before the breeding season got underway.

Tags:
Horse Racing, George Washington, Holy Roman Emperor