The statistics in this report only cover North American-bred horses and it would be a useful next step to compare to European and South American stallions and their offspring.

There are a few facts that pop out; first, the not-terribly-surprising ones:

• Overall starts per foal dropped from 20.42 in the 1970s to 13.15 for the years 2000-2003.

• Stallions with a stud fee over $100,000 have the lowest average number of starts per foal (but you knew that).

• The number of starts for offspring of such stallions has decreased since the 1990s, but the trend was in line with the other price levels – they all dropped significantly between 1990 and 2003.

These were a little more interesting:

• While the overall foal crop in this decade (so far) is down considerably from the 1970s (and less than half that of the 1980s and 1990s), the number of stallions has gone from a high of 2,834 in the 1980s to 925 now, which sounds like the makings of a genetic bottleneck. While the huge number in the 1980s and 1990s seems equally ill-advised, it would seem that there’s a middle ground we may be missing.

• Among sires of G1 winners for 1970-1979, Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector foals were fairly middle-of-the-road in terms of numbers of starts for their category during that time; Nijinsky II, Raise a Native, Sir Ivor and Vaguely Noble’s numbers were in the single digits. Verbatim was king in that era, with an average of almost 30 starts per foal. The big difference seemed to be in the percentage of graded stakes winners they sired.

• However, things changed in the 1980s – even (or, perhaps, especially) for the big boys. The Dancer and Mr. P are both still very much on the ‘sires of G1 stakes winners’ list, but their number of starts per foal dropped considerably in that decade: Northern Dancer’s foals started 11.71 times in the 1970s, but only 6.18 times in the decade of Duran Duran – and Mr. Prospector went from 18.10 starts to 10.58.

• By the 1990s, sires of graded stakes winners (listed by total stakes winners) were rarely producing foals that started very often – Storm Cat, Danzig and Broad Brush were all producing stakes winners, but Storm Cat and Danzig progeny were in single digits for starts – Broad Brush’s were a lot closer to 19 starts (although Allen’s Prospect was averaging about 24 — and still producing graded stakes winners).

• The main difference between the 1990s and the 2000s seems to be that not a single stallion from the ‘Top sires of G1 stakes winners by graded stakes winners’ has foals averaging twenty starts in the current decade — although perhaps someone will get there.

A few other random observations:

• Whatever happened to the ‘iron horse’ producers of the 1970s – Terrible Tiger, Spring Double and Ole Bob Bowers? I’m presuming that John Henry skewed the stats for Ole Bob to a certain extent, but they certainly look (at first glance) smaller and more well made than today’s model (have a Google around for some images) — and they were certainly not the most popular sires by any means.

• Why on earth did Woodman produce so very many foals? (He had 458 2 year old starters in the 1990s). At least they did tend to have longer careers, but that’s still a lot of Woodman. Ditto for Pentelicus – no G1 winners, but a lot of winners (a fair few G2 and G3 ones on the list) and a good number of starts. Miswaki was also on the ‘very busy’ list.

• There are many stallions on the books with no stakes winners of any kind – although a fair few of them do produce winners (albeit winners of not even the most minor of stakes races). Some do work their way up, however – Jules had no graded stakes winners in the 1990s with only 40 named foals, but in the 2000s he spikes up to 155 named foals. He still had more ‘winners’ than ‘graded stakes winners’ (as you might expect) but clearly he moved up in the world.

• In the 2000s (thus far), Storm Cat offspring drop to 7.73 starts, making A.P. Indy foals look remarkable at 10.15 starts. Among the elite, Pioneering and Langfuhr are still closer to old school numbers with around 17 starts; Not For Love, Distorted Humor, Smart Strike and Stormy Atlantic aren’t far from 15 starts.

So, what does it all mean? At first glance, it brings up more questions than it answers — what about the mares? What about shuttle stallions (although it’s likely too early to say much)? Do turf runners tend to start more than dirt runners? Have racing patterns changed due to breeding, or vice versa?

The answers are not there yet, but it’s definitely something to start mulling over…

Drugs
everyone keeps mentioning banning medication and it seems like a no-brainer, yet there’s no clear answer as to exactly what would have to happen to make it a reality. New York OK’d Lasix when it seemed that their ban on it was preventing a Triple Crown – would it not have made more sense to make everyone else adhere to their standards? Keeping drugs out of sales would be nice too.

Kudos to ESPN for actually listing out the typical medications used today in the US and even bigger kudos to Randy Moss for keeping the issue going. The NTRA’s Alex Waldrop (and I give him a lot of credit for taking part in the discussion) suggests that the current steroid testing protocol is working, but it’s still so piecemeal that it’s not enough.

Breeding
It was interesting to hear that Team Valor’s Barry Irwin buys most of his horses overseas; Jim Squires also correctly pointed out that the sturdier lines are not the popular ones in the US. It wasn’t always the case; Broad Brush was the leading sire in the US in 1994, yet only four of his sons are standing at stud in the US today. His millionaire son, Concern, stands in Oklahoma – a long way from Kentucky. Only Include is standing in Kentucky (and at a ‘popular‘ price) ; Schossberg was sent to Chile. Maybry’s Boy is in New York, and Mongoose is in Florida. What changed in about 15 years to make a hearty stallion like Broad Brush less fashionable?

Artificial surfaces
Well done to Nick Zito for standing up for safe dirt surfaces – the fact remains that the research simply isn’t there yet to suggest it’s time to have the entire industry switch to synthetics. If and when it is, bring it on – but I don’t see the statistics that support removing a good dirt track in most cases.

Training & Racing Age
Hurray! Dr. Scott Palmer pointed out that early training is necessary to create soundness; I can’t understand why this issue is so often overlooked (or misunderstood) when there is ample research on it. Dr. Larry Bramledge tried to address the same issue, but it did not seem to be getting through as effectively to the NBC crowd (not surprisingly).

I would also suggest that the lighter schedules (both training and racing) could also be a major factor in making modern racehorses less sound — could it be that this has led to current breeding trends, rather than the other way around?

Implementation
Waldrop clearly knows his real challenge is actually getting anything done and brings up toe grabs as an example – but the fact that only four racing jurisdictions have taken the NTRA’s advice in that regard is not encouraging (especially given how abundantly clear the evidence is that they are unsafe).

Randy Moss is right – everyone needs to compromise. I’d really like to know which ‘horsemen’ told him he ‘needed a muzzle.’

The highlight of NBC’s round table was Gary Stevens for calling for a commissioner to oversee the entire sport. It’s clear that there needs to be central authority — or at least major industry bodies like the Breeders’ Cup organization laying down their own rules as a first step — ideally beginning with banning medication in any of their races, including the Win and You’re In series.

Here’s hoping for a safe Preakness…

Bill Finley points out that sibling relationships don’t often count for much in horse racing, and uses the example of Smarty Jones’ full sister who has yet to win a maiden race. Indeed, his half bother Speedy Jones is also some way from his elder sibling’s fame – he has so far earned his connections $3320 in 3 starts, so he still has some way to go to make up for his $120,000 purchase price.

There is no guarantee that Barbaro’s brothers will shine on the track either; his 4-year-old half-brother, Man in Havana, is unraced (and is now a gelding) and his elder half-brother, Holy Ground, won a few stakes races, but nothing outstanding (although you can still breed to him for $3,500, if you are so inclined – I actually like his pedigree, but he’s not going to win any beauty contests).

By the same token, some mares just keep producing top offspring. Hasili is still the classic modern example, with Cacique, Heat Haze, Banks Hill, Intercontinental, Dansili and her current US-based runner, Champs Elysees. Her 3-year-old, Raise the Flag (by the recently-pensioned Sadler’s Wells), has one start so far, and she has a yearling Storm Cat filly (apparently, one of the last of his as well). Andrew Caulfield was impressed upon meeting the mare:

While Hasili still has a bit of work to do to match Fall Aspen (eight group/graded winners, including four Grade I winners) and Courtly Dee (seven graded winners, headed by three Grade I scorers), this extraordinary mare has a near-faultless record. Thanks to Champs Elysees‘s stylish victory in the GII San Marcos S., her first six foals have all scored at Grade I or Grade II levels, with four of them achieving Grade I-winner status. It took the great Dahlia 11 foals to come up with four Grade I winners and a pair of Grade II scorers.

I suspect Champs Elysees, just nosed out last weekend in the G2 Jim Murray Memorial Handicap, will nab a G1 win as well at some point.

Fall Aspen‘s details note that only four North American-based mares have been lucky enough to produce as many as four G1 winners (Dahlia, Toussaud, Hasili and Fall Aspen herself); one wonders if it would still be possible to get away with naming a horse Hamas, like Fall Aspen’s 1989 colt who has been a useful sire, these days.

I expect this topic to come up not infrequently as we head toward the Belmont and Casino Drive‘s chance to make it a hat-trick for his dam, Better Than Honour – not to mention the anticipation around Nicanor’s first start, which will likely be one of the most-watched maiden races in recent memory.

Finally, let’s focus for a moment on the major stallion retirements mentioned above. Sadler’s Wells made an impact on the turf before his great influence at stud – he won or placed in six Group 1 events in England, Ireland and France and was the 1984 Champion Miler in France before heading off to stud duty (and, now, a well-deserved retirement). His statistics (so far) show 272 stakes winners, including 71 G1 winners. His top offspring include Montjeu, Galileo, Alexandrova, High Chaparral and Refuse to Bend, among many others. It would seem that some want to overlook his American origins to some extent:

Such is his standing in the Northern Hemisphere, respected TDN columnist Bill Oppenheim was moved to write yesterday that Sadler’s Wells “singlehandedly restored the reputation of Europe as a place where you could stand world-class stallions after European stallion ranks had been decimated by the Americans in the 1970s and 1980s. “

By contrast, Storm Cat was less successful on the track – he only won one notable race (although his runner-up performance in the second Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was memorable) before an injury forced his retirement. Among his best foals are Giant’s Causeway, Storm Flag Flying and the notorious Tabasco Cat. Here are his statistics at this point – Storm Cat has sired 160 stakes winners, with 98 graded stakes winners (and one could argue that both stallions have been even more useful as broodmare sires).

The great success at stud of both stallions, coming at a time when numbers of mares bred to a given stallion increased exponentially (along with auction prices and stud fees), has had a definite impact on the breed; whether it’s been a positive, negative or mixed one is debatable, but there can be no argument that they’ve certainly made their respective marks. Here’s hoping they can both enjoy healthy retirements.

First, the science: many studies indicate that early training and exercise not only help thoroughbreds to develop bone mass, but also stronger tendons and overall ‘better’ legs. Here are just a few studies worth reading; they don’t all agree on a particular ideal method, but they all seem to suggest that young bones need stress to build better bones:

• Exercise of young thoroughbred horses increases impact strength of the third metacarpal bone.
  Reilly GC, Currey JD, Goodship AE.
  J Orthop Res. 1997 Nov;15(6):862-8.

• The response of bone, articular cartilage and tendon to exercise in the horse
  Elwyn C Firth
  J Anat. 2006 April; 208(4): 513–526.

• Fatigue fractures in thoroughbred racehorses: Relationships with age, peak bone strain, and training
  Dr. D. M. Nunamaker, D. M. Butterweck, M. T. Provost
  J Orthop Res. 1990 July; 8(4) : 604-611.

• Fractures – A Preventable Hazard of Racing Thoroughbreds?
  C. M. Riggs
  The Veterinary Journal. 2002 January; 163(1): 19-29.

Let’s also compare how horses racing careers have changed in the US since the 1940s; obviously this is anecdotal, but comparing historical data regarding number and timing of lifetime starts could prove useful and I would be interested to see the results of a real survey of the available data:

• Whirlaway
  As a 2 year old in 1940: 16 starts: 7-2-4
  Lifetime Record: 60 starts: 32-15-9
  

• Nashua
  As a 2-year-old in 1954: 8 starts: 6-2-0
  Lifetime Record: 30 starts: 22-4-1

• Secretariat
  As a 2-year-old in 1972: 9: 7-1-0
  Lifetime Record: 21 starts: 16-3-1

• Easy Goer
  As a 2-year-old in 1988: 6: 4-2-0
  Lifetime Record: 20 starts: 14-5-1
  

• War Emblem

As a 2-year-old in 2001: 3 starts: 2-0-0
Lifetime record: 13 starts: 7-0-0

Obviously, this does not speak directly to the case of Eight Belles, who had 5 starts at 2 (and of course taking into account that horses can injure themselves under the most benign of circumstances) — that’s certainly more than a lot of the current crop of runners.

It’s also possible that today’s horse is simply not as robust as that of even 30 years ago (and with most thoroughbreds sharing 47% of their genes, that’s not surprising — the problem is perhaps most evident in the US because of the influence of Northern Dancer); if that is indeed the case, there is ample data on the equine genome to begin making more educated decisions about breeding:

However, the analysis of thoroughbred genetics is also revealing the other side of the coin, notes Matthew Binns of the Royal Veterinary College in London, UK. Many negative traits are associated with inbreeding in the diminutive gene pool, he says. “The selections we’ve made for fantastic beasts have had some detrimental consequences.”

One tenth of thoroughbreds suffer orthopaedic problems and fractures, 10% have low fertility, 5% have abnormally small hearts and the majority suffer bleeding in the lungs, says Binns. But as well as allowing breeders to select for performance-related genes, elucidating the horse genome may allow researchers to breed out negative traits, he says. “Now we have a good amount of the horse genome, there are interesting times ahead,” says Binns. “Over the next 10 years there will be some changes in this very traditional industry.”

It’s about time.

I’d eventually like to see some real oversight into who we breed and why – many other sporting breeds force their ‘approved’ stallions and mares to undergo rigorous (and repeated) quality control testing to assure that they are improving the breed, not simply making a buck at stud or auction. Clinging to the ‘live cover only’ rule seems like a quaint anachronism if other basic traditional breeding goals — like soundness or the ability to run drug-free — are an afterthought.

I would also suggest that the data is out there to at least make a start on a soundness index; an initial measure could be the percentage of a particular stallion’s offspring who are deemed too unsound to even consider putting them in training. I don’t know what sort of real numbers that might involve, but based on discussions I’ve had with people at some of the major breeding farms, it is a reasonably significant one. Granted, in many cases genetic faults may also lie with the mares involved, but until someone begins to compile and package the statistics, it’s all guesswork.

What is not guesswork is the interesting research that has been done on the equine genome:

Related work on sequencing the horse genome is also uncovering genes in thoroughbreds linked to speed and stamina. Screening for these traits could one day guide owners’ and breeders’ decisions when buying horses, which may sell for many millions of dollars.

“We hope to produce sounder, faster and better-performing horses,” says Cunningham. He and colleague Emmeline Hill at University College Dublin [Ed: Another article well worth checking out is also by Dr. Emmeline Hill -- ‘Genomics of performance in the equine athlete.’] is also using the horse genome to uncover genes that explain why one animal runs faster than another.

…

However, the analysis of thoroughbred genetics is also revealing the other side of the coin, notes Matthew Binns of the Royal Veterinary College in London, UK. Many negative traits are associated with inbreeding in the diminutive gene pool, he says. “The selections we’ve made for fantastic beasts have had some detrimental consequences.”

One tenth of thoroughbreds suffer orthopaedic problems and fractures, 10% have low fertility, 5% have abnormally small hearts and the majority suffer bleeding in the lungs, says Binns. But as well as allowing breeders to select for performance-related genes, elucidating the horse genome may allow researchers to breed out negative traits, he says. “Now we have a good amount of the horse genome, there are interesting times ahead,” says Binns. “Over the next 10 years there will be some changes in this very traditional industry.”

Naturally, as this data could potentially make someone a bit of cash, there’s a company called Thoroughbred Genetics that offers genetic analysis for the racing industry. I see this as no bad thing — it’s very interesting work and clearly someone should be doing it; if the free market helped to breed an unsound horse, it can also help breed a sound one.

Beyond genetics, here is a lot of very interesting research out there (The Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation is a great resource for finding peer-reviewed studies if you don’t already have access to an academic library) regarding training, track surfaces and medications to name just a few areas of interest; with the wealth of studies available, it’s about time the industry takes the recommendations of the Welfare and Safety Summit on board.

Finally, speaking of horse genetics, that’s my excuse for the picture of the NZ-born pure-white filly by Zabeel. I’ll let you coat color genetics folks go to town on this one!

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Horse Racing