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	<title>Superfectablog v3.0 &#187; Eskendereya</title>
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		<title>Kentucky Derby 2010 &#8211; On The Record</title>
		<link>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/kentucky-derby-2010-on-the-record.html</link>
		<comments>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/kentucky-derby-2010-on-the-record.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Apr 2010 16:22:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Devil May Care]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eskendereya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lookin At Lucky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mine That Bird]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sidney's Candy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Smarty Jones]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://superfectablog.com/?p=779</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="wp-caption-text">Just add water (and possibly hail)</p>
<p>While I was certainly not alone in failing to pick the Derby winner on purpose last year, we did win the pool at the Derby party we attended, but it was entirely accidental &#8211; when we got down to the last few options, Mine That Bird stuck out only [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_780" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 213px"><a href="http://superfectablog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/kdwc.jpg"><img class="size-medium  wp-image-780" title="kdwc" src="http://superfectablog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/kdwc-225x300.jpg" alt="Kentucky Derby Winner's Circle" width="203" height="270" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Just add water (and possibly hail)</p></div>
<p>While I was certainly not alone in <a href="http://superfectablog.com/2009/05/2009-kentucky-derby-on-the-record.html">failing to pick</a> the Derby winner on purpose last year, we did win the pool at the Derby party we attended, but it was entirely accidental &#8211; when we got down to the last few options, <strong>Mine That Bird</strong> stuck out only for having Calvin Borel aboard, and he was duly chosen.   This year seems wide-open, and perhaps because of the little <strong>Birdstone</strong> colt&#8217;s surprise victory, there are (as has become tradition) a few horses who really should not be here.  (You can always refer back to our <a href="http://superfectablog.blogspot.com/2008/04/twenty-horses-and-how-they-got-that-way.html">previous entries</a> about how a twenty-horse field used to be the exception, rather than the rule).  So far, the award for best quote about this year&#8217;s Derby goes (unsurprisingly) <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/article/112526.html">to Bob Baffert</a>, who said, &#8216;Plan A is to break well. Plan B is we&#8217;re screwed.&#8217;</p>
<p>Indeed &#8211; and that really goes for just about everyone.</p>
<p>Once we factor in some potentially very unpleasant weather, it gets even more complicated &#8211; although it would be hard to argue that, say, <strong>Sunday Silence</strong> or <strong>Smarty Jones</strong> would have been beaten on a fast track.</p>
<p>And so, without further ado, the Derby field:</p>
<p><strong>Lookin At Lucky / G K Gomez  / 126  / B Baffert </strong><br />
I&#8217;ll begin by saying I love Bob Baffert &#8211; it&#8217;s great to see him back at the Derby with a talented horse.  I don&#8217;t think the post position is as much of an issue as some believe (as is widely noted, the 1 is one of the winningest spots), but with Calvin trying to get on the rail a few slots over, it could be tricky.<br />
<strong>Positives: </strong>Solid seasoning, great pedigree, has handled traffic before and has the talent.<br />
<strong>Negatives: </strong>Will the absence of blinkers be a help or hindrance &#8211; and will his recent bad luck continue to follow him?</p>
<p><strong>Ice Box / J Lezcano / 126 	/ N P Zito </strong><br />
The Nick Zito trainee took a few tries to break his maiden, but his Florida Derby win is what put him on the map here.  Was it too long ago? Does anyone even care about that anymore?<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> A definite closer, which can be a huge asset in this race.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Only has one Beyer near the triple-digit mark (which is not unusual for this field) &#8211; is he a notch below the best?</p>
<p><strong>Noble&#8217;s Promise / W Martinez / 126 / K G McPeek </strong><br />
This horse has been growing on me for the past few weeks; he&#8217;s always had a good excuse for his few less-than-stellar performances, and he&#8217;s overcome a lot recently. Lowish figures could be a concern, but he&#8217;s one of my top picks.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Highest Tomlinson in the field &#8211; if it&#8217;s wet, he could relish it.<br />
<strong>Negatives: </strong>Is he fully recovered from his illness and minor scratches last time out?</p>
<p><strong>Super Saver / C H Borel / 126 /  T A Pletcher </strong><br />
One of the &#8216;other&#8217; Pletcher horses &#8211; at least, he was before <strong>Eskendereya</strong> was knocked out. I keep going back and forth on him, but he&#8217;s definitely worth keeping an eye on, especially if it rains; his post position may be almost ideal for his jockey.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Has won in the rain &#8211; and has Calvin Bo-rail aboard.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Has not beaten the best in this field before.</p>
<p><strong>Line of David / R Bejarano / 126 /  J W Sadler</strong><br />
The upset winner of the Arkansas Derby previously had only won in allowance company; his connections have been openly displeased by his workouts here.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> I do like his breeding &#8211; <strong>Lion Heart</strong> was underrated, in my opinion.  Another high Tomlinson.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> None of the on-site reports this week have been positive.</p>
<p><strong>Stately Victor / A Garcia / 126 / M J Maker</strong><br />
The regally-bred son of <strong>Ghostzapper</strong> was also a shocker last time out when he took the Blue Grass.<br />
<strong>Positives: </strong>I&#8217;m sure he will be a lovely turf horse later; has placed over a wet surface.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Seems outclassed here; not his surface.</p>
<p><strong>American Lion /  D R Flores / 126 / E G Harty </strong><br />
He is another longshot I&#8217;ve been warming to, although I&#8217;m not fully convinced yet.  He needed his Illinois Derby win to get here, but he&#8217;s been a bit hit and miss in the past.  Still, he could be peaking at the right time.<br />
<strong>Positives: </strong>Yet another big Tomlinson; should get the distance easily, at least from a pedigree perspective.<br />
<strong>Negatives: </strong>A bit lightly-raced and has not faced this sort of competition.</p>
<p><strong>Dean&#8217;s Kitten /  R Albarado / 126 / M J Maker</strong><br />
He&#8217;s been trading places with <strong>Paddy O&#8217;Prado</strong> in a number of turf races &#8211; and his connections surely know that&#8217;s where he excels.<br />
<strong>Positives: </strong>Beautiful (turf) pedigree.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> He&#8217;s a turf horse who can also run on synthetics. Dirt does not seem to be his thing.</p>
<p><strong>Make Music for Me / J Rosario / 	126 	/ A Barba </strong><br />
Barely scraped into the field, but has run well with the likes of <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> on a number of occasions.  His last race, the Blue Grass, was odd enough that we might throw it out, but it&#8217;s hard to evaluate.<br />
<strong>Positives: </strong>Has finished second to <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> twice &#8211; both times with awkward trips.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Low Beyers (although that&#8217;s partially a function of having run on synthetics), no starts over conventional dirt.</p>
<p><strong>Paddy O&#8217;Prado /  K J Desormeaux / 126 / D L Romans </strong><br />
This horse has apparently been working fantastically well at Churchill Downs &#8211; even if everything about him screams &#8216;turf.&#8217; Let&#8217;s also recall that he has a single win to his credit, but he could be peaking at the right time.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Perhaps he has a real affinity for the Churchill Down surface.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Seems he would be better placed on the grass.</p>
<p><strong>Devil May Care /  J R Velazquez / 121 / T A Pletcher </strong><br />
I&#8217;m very pleased to see the filly here &#8211; and think she&#8217;s in with a real chance.  She&#8217;s got blinkers on to keep her focused, and note that she is the first horse we&#8217;ve discussed so far with a triple-digit Beyer.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Gets a weight break, has won in the rain, wants the distance &#8211; and has run faster than most of these colts.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Lightly raced and can get fussy in the gate.</p>
<p><strong>Conveyance / 	M Garcia / 126 / B Baffert </strong><br />
The &#8216;other&#8217; Bob Baffert horse won the San Rafael and the Southwest on his way here and has been flying a bit under the radar.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Has always finished in the money.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Lightly raced and a bit of a step up in class.</p>
<p><strong>Jackson Bend / M E Smith 	/ 126 / N P Zito </strong><br />
There was concern for some time that he would not make the race, despite a respectable record of wins and close finishes to <strong>Eskendereya</strong>.  Luckily, he made it in &#8211; and he also has a triple-digit Beyer in his record, albeit one from last year.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Seasoning, a real dirt record and Nick Zito in his corner.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> If it rains, is he in trouble?</p>
<p><strong>Mission Impazible /  R Maragh / 126 / T A Pletcher</strong><br />
This is not the horse&#8217;s fault, but he violates my Good Names for G1 Horses principles &#8211; and I actually like the horse he beat in the Louisiana Derby, <strong>A Little Warm</strong>, a bit better.  I don&#8217;t have a solidly logical reason for not liking him here, but there it is.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Finished third in the Kentucky Juvenile &#8211; last year. Has earned some money on a wet track.<br />
<strong>Negatives: </strong>Can he help Todd Pletcher add to his last-place-finish record?</p>
<p><strong>Discreetly Mine / J Castellano / 126 / T A Pletcher </strong><br />
Winner of the Risen Star only has a MSW to his credit otherwise, but that first win was in the mud.  Yet another from the Pletcher barn, he showed little in the Louisiana Derby.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Has some good experience, if few wins.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Seems a bit out of his element here.</p>
<p><strong>Awesome Act /  J R Leparoux / 126 / J Noseda </strong><br />
Began his career in Britain, although did not start winning until he came to the US and switching to dirt.  He overcame some difficulties in the Gotham but was far outrun in the Wood, finishing third &#8211; although he had a terrible trip.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Has been training very well since arriving at Churchill Downs<br />
<strong>Negatives: </strong>Difficult to evaluate how fast he really is, given his brief dirt record.</p>
<p><strong>Dublin / T J Thompson / 126 / D W Lukas </strong><br />
The son of <strong>Afleet Alex</strong> seems to be more talented than his past performances would suggest, although he does have a G1 win to his credit (in the Hopeful). In his two victories, he was wide both times &#8211; could he be the first winner from this post position?<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Trainer Lukas knows how to win the Derby, he seems to love Churchill Downs.<br />
<strong>Negatives: </strong>Has not won this year (although he consistently finishes in the money).</p>
<p><strong>Backtalk / M Mena / 126 / T M Amoss </strong><br />
Has more wins than many in this field &#8211; but most came last year.  He could be a factor, though, given the weather forecast.<br />
<strong>Positives: </strong>Has won both of his outings in the rain &#8211; and his sire, <strong>Smarty Jones</strong>, won this race in sloppy conditions.<br />
<strong>Negatives: </strong>Not much experience against this company.</p>
<p><strong>Homeboykris /  R A Dominguez / 126 / R E Dutrow, Jr.</strong><br />
He has not run since February. He won the Champagne (last year), but his best effort this year was finishing second in a 44K allowance race.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Well, trainer Dutrow overcame the cursed 20-hole with <strong>Big Brown</strong> &#8211; but no one has ever won from 19.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Yes.</p>
<p><strong>Sidney&#8217;s Candy/ J Talamo/ 126 / J W Sadler </strong><br />
I&#8217;m not generally a fan of horses who have only prepped on synthetics, but I still like<strong> Sidney&#8217;s Candy</strong>.  This post position is more of a worry, but it&#8217;s great to see Joe Talamo back in the Derby after last year&#8217;s debacle &#8211; especially on a horse he&#8217;s been with for his entire career.<br />
<strong>Positives:</strong> Has a 100 Beyer &#8211; on synthetic, which may mask its true speed a bit. Great pedigree.<br />
<strong>Negatives:</strong> Post position, lack of a dirt prep.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Before we get to the predictions, here are a few random factoids to consider:</p>
<table style="text-align: left;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Horses with a 100+ Beyer</th>
<th>Youngest horses in the field</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Sidney&#8217;s Candy</strong><br />
<strong> Devil May Care</strong><br />
<strong> Jackson Bend </strong></td>
<td><strong>Stately Victor </strong>- May 1<br />
<strong>Devil May Care</strong> &#8211; May 7<br />
<strong>Lookin At Lucky </strong>- May 27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<th><strong>Good Tomlinsons or win in mud</strong></th>
<th><strong>Horses I&#8217;m tossing completely</strong></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top"><strong>Super Saver</strong> (win &amp; place)<br />
<strong>Devil May Care</strong> (win)<br />
<strong>Backtalk</strong> (2 wins)<br />
<strong>Discreetly Mine</strong> (win &amp; off the board)<br />
<strong>Stately Victor</strong> (place)<br />
<strong> Noble&#8217;s Promise</strong><br />
<strong> American Lion</strong><br />
<strong> Awesome Act</strong><br />
<strong> Line of David</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: left;" valign="top"><strong> Homeboykris</strong><br />
<strong> Line of David</strong><br />
<strong> Stately Victor</strong><br />
<strong> Dean&#8217;s Kitten</strong><br />
<strong>Make Music For Me</strong><br />
<strong>Mission Impazible</strong></p>
<p><strong><br />
</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>So, what does it all mean?  Does the fox that ran in front of my car this morning want me to pick the most vulpine entrant?  If so, who is it?  While my actual wagers will go in a variety of directions, it&#8217;s time to take a guess.</p>
<p><strong>Prediction:</strong> <strong>Devil May Care</strong>, <strong>Noble&#8217;s Promise</strong>, <strong>Jackson Bend</strong>, <strong>Awesome Act </strong>(with <strong>Super Saver </strong>and <strong>American Lion</strong> in the mix, should it be even wetter than predicted)<strong>.<br />
</strong></p>
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		<title>In Which Devil May Care = Babylon 5</title>
		<link>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/in-which-devil-may-care-babylon-5.html</link>
		<comments>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/in-which-devil-may-care-babylon-5.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Apr 2010 18:22:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blind Luck]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devil May Care]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eskendereya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[I Want Revenge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lookin At Lucky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rachel Alexandra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sidney's Candy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://superfectablog.com/?p=773</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="wp-caption-text">Todd Pletcher&#39;s last, best hope</p>
<p>After the frenzied game of musical chairs over the weekend, we now have a reasonably good sense of who is actually going in the Derby – and it&#8217;s certainly not Eskendereya or Rule (who, quite sensibly, now seems pointed for the Preakness).  While it&#8217;s not clear whether the front wraps [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 256px"><a href="http://media.kansascity.com/smedia/2010/04/27/03/662-100422_derby669.embedded.prod_affiliate.81.jpg"><img title="Devil May Care" src="http://media.kansascity.com/smedia/2010/04/27/03/662-100422_derby669.embedded.prod_affiliate.81.jpg" alt="Todd Pletcher's last, best hope" width="246" height="369" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Todd Pletcher&#39;s last, best hope</p></div>
<p>After the frenzied game of musical chairs over the weekend, we now have a reasonably good sense of who is actually going in the Derby – and it&#8217;s certainly <a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/April/25/Eskendereya-declared-out-of-Kentucky-Derby.aspx">not <strong>Eskendereya</strong></a> or <strong>Rule</strong> (who, quite sensibly, now seems <a href="http://www.nola.com/horseracing/index.ssf/2010/04/kentucky_derby_notes_devil_may.html">pointed for the Preakness</a>).  While it&#8217;s not clear whether the front wraps he wore in his Wood victory were a hint that something was slightly amiss, he will be missed – but in some ways, his defection makes the potential race more interesting – and certainly more wide-open.  <a href="http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/morning-line-eyes-turn-to-lookin-at-lucky/"><strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong></a> is the obvious successor to take on the favorite mantle, but here are a few more Derby starters on whom I&#8217;ll be keeping a particularly close eye:</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/April/26/McPeek-says-Nobles-Promise-is-in-the-Derby.aspx">Noble&#8217;s Promise</a></strong><br />
I liked his finish in the Rebel, and he has had more than his share of poor luck this season; he could be due for a big race.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/April/26/Sidneys-Candy-follows-proven-path-to-dirt.aspx">Sidney&#8217;s Candy</a></strong><br />
While I wish he had a good dirt prep on his resume, he seems more likely to make the transition more easily than many.  But it&#8217;s nice to see <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2010/apr/19/sports/la-sp-dwyre-20100420">Joe Talamo</a> have a horse with a real shot, after the <strong>I Want Revenge</strong> situation last year.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown2010/news/story?id=5083841">Awesome Act</a></strong><br />
Another victim of bad luck in the past, we know he likes the mud – and he&#8217;s worth watching.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56686/devil-may-care-to-enter-in-derby-only">Devil May Care</a></strong><br />
Now we know she&#8217;s <a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/April/27/Kentucky-Oaks-draws-without-Devil-May-Care.aspx">definitely in the Derby</a> – and she deserves her spot (which is more than I can say for some of the colts we&#8217;ll likely be seeing – whether you agree with <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/26/AR2010042601855.html">Beyer&#8217;s entire column</a> or not, I think he&#8217;s right on with the notion that the earnings have become some sort of automatic Derby ticket, deserved or otherwise).  And hey, she has namesakes in both a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Devil-May-Care-Jamie-Cullum/dp/B002ZXZJJW">Jamie Cullum CD</a> and a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil_May_Care_%28novel%29">James Bond novel</a> (albeit one by Sebastian Faulks).  John Velazquez gets the mount.</p>
<p>Of course, we already have <a href=" http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/April/27/Kentucky-Oaks-draws-without-Devil-May-Care.aspx">the field for the Oaks</a>, and <strong>Blind Luck</strong> is the favorite.  We&#8217;ll go more in-depth with the Oaks tomorrow (as well as commenting on the Derby draw), but <strong>Amen Hallelujah</strong> and <strong>Crisp </strong>are my other two (rather chalky) picks.<br />
And the Oaks undercard is going to have one very special guest: <strong>Rachel Alexandra</strong> is <a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/April/24/Rachel-Alexandra-set-for-La-Troienne.aspx">running in the La Troienne</a>.  She&#8217;s back to her normal (for which read &#8216;rather spectacular&#8217;) <a href=" http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/a-closer-look-at-the-derby-crop/">work pattern</a>, so hopefully we&#8217;ll see her turn the tables on <strong>Zardana</strong> – although I&#8217;m equally fine giving her another race to get back into her true form.</p>
<p>In the meantime, check out <a href="http://helloracefans.com/">Hello Race Fans</a> and <a href="http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/">The Rail</a> for more, as there is plenty of quality racing-related writing on tap this week – and remember to tune in to <a href="http://alexbrownracing.com/wiki/index.php/Radio">Alex Brown&#8217;s radio show</a> on Thursday, where I&#8217;ll be handing out some dubious Derby and Oaks wagering advice.</p>
<p>I leave you (until tomorrow!) with this thought: can Pletcher get another last-place finisher with <strong>Mission Impazible</strong>?</p>
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		<title>Edging Closer to the Derby</title>
		<link>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/edging-closer-to-the-derby.html</link>
		<comments>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/edging-closer-to-the-derby.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Apr 2010 18:59:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blind Luck]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eskendereya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lookin At Lucky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melbourne Cup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Raven's Pass]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p class="wp-caption-text">Blinkers? Feh!</p>
<p>We finally have a better sense of the Derby field as the contenders begin to move into Churchill Downs in earnest; Lookin At Lucky seemed to enjoy the track, working a bullet this morning. Trainer Bob Baffert has buried the hatchet with jockey Garrett Gomez (you will recall he was not thrilled with [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 165px"><a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/images/content/LookinAtLuckyKYDerbyworkAEvertical.jpg"><img title="Lookin At Lucky" src="http://www.bloodhorse.com/images/content/LookinAtLuckyKYDerbyworkAEvertical.jpg" alt="Lookin At Lucky" width="155" height="172" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Blinkers? Feh!</p></div>
<p>We finally have a better sense of the Derby field as the contenders begin to move into Churchill Downs in earnest; <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> seemed to enjoy the track, <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56563/baffert-derby-duo-sizzles-at-churchill-downs">working a bullet</a> this morning. Trainer Bob Baffert has buried the hatchet with jockey Garrett Gomez (you will recall he was not thrilled with his ride in the Santa Anita Derby) and taken a bit of advice from the rider &#8211; <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> will contest the Derby <a href="http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/other_sports/horse_racing/view/20100420no_blinkers_for_lookin_at_lucky/srvc=home&amp;position=recent"><em>sans</em> blinkers</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Eskendereya</strong> is also getting used to his new surroundings &#8211; he arrived in Louisville yesterday and stretched his legs a bit.  Now that he&#8217;s officially <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown2010/news/story?id=5110260">on the block</a>, one wonders whether he will be sold before or after the Derby &#8211; but which side wants to be the big gambler in this situation?  Apparently not Todd Pletcher, who may further spread his Derby risk by entering filly <strong>Devil May Care</strong>.  While a decision won&#8217;t be made immediately, I enjoyed <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56547/derby-a-possibility-for-filly-devil-may-care">this comment from Pletcher</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;She acts like she wants to run beyond a mile and an eighth,&#8221; Pletcher said.&#8221; That is the main reason. We&#8217;ve worked her with a number of our colts who are being considered (for the Derby) and she has worked as well or better than most of them. But there is a lot to consider, including running in a field of 20 and things like that. We&#8217;ll just wait and see after she works.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>As I cannot say I&#8217;m terribly impressed by some of the &#8216;other&#8217; Derby colts in Pletcher&#8217;s barn (i.e., most of those who are not <strong>Eskendereya</strong> or <strong>Rule</strong>), she is probably a better candidate than many &#8211; but the filly I&#8217;d most like to see in the race is still <strong>Blind Luck</strong>.  Still, if nothing else, by entering as many horses as he possibly can, Pletcher also ups his chances of finishing last (again).</p>
<p><strong>Noble&#8217;s Promise</strong> has been considered questionable for the Derby after a rough race in the Arkansas Derby and a subsequent lung infection, but things <a href="http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100420/SPORTS08/4200335/1002/sports/Kentucky+Derby+Prep+|+Noble+s+Promise+has+%E2%80%98fantastic+work+">looked encouraging</a> after his bullet work yesterday.  Kenny McPeek is still erring on the side of caution and is not committing his horse to the race, but I believe he&#8217;s worth watching; hopefully he will make the starting gate.</p>
<p>The usual pre-Derby <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown2010/news/story?id=5119585">jockey-change shenanigans</a> have been afoot &#8211; Jon Court, who got longshot <strong>Line of David</strong> into the winner&#8217;s circle for the Arkansas Derby, has been replaced by red-hot Rafael Bejarano.  In this case, it&#8217;s not a simple matter of creating bad karma; Bejarano had ridden the horse before, in California, and his Derby horse, <strong>Setsuko</strong>, probably will not make the field.  It&#8217;s still no fun to see Jon Court sitting out the big race again, though; one suspects that Bejarano might have easily picked up another last-minute mount (presumably knocking off another lesser-known jock) &#8211; and so it goes on.</p>
<p>In more unpleasant news, <strong>Tiz Chrome</strong> <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5110189">broke down</a> while working toward the Derby Trial; he was put down on the track.  Also aiming for the Derby Trial (so far, with better results) <a href=" http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown2010/news/story?id=5089344">is <strong>Eightyfiveinafifty</strong></a> &#8211; and a win there could send him to the Derby, which would really be kicking it old-school &#8211; <strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Tam_%28horse%29">Tim Tam</a></strong> was the last horse to win both back in 1958.</p>
<p>There was sad news from across the Pacific as well; 2008 Melbourne Cup winner <strong>Viewed</strong> died as a result of a <a href="http://www.superracing.com.au/heraldsun/story/Melbourne-Cup-winner-Viewed-dies/13913">twisted bowel</a>. The 6-year-old (by Southern Hemisphere standards) stallion had been <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/bart-mourns-death-of-cup-winner-viewed-20100418-smos.html">in training</a> and was aiming to re-take the Cup before retiring to stud in another year or two &#8211; his interesting pedigree and proven staying ability are a loss to the breed in Australia (and could have been of great use here, as well &#8211; although commercial breeders would have disliked the notion).</p>
<p>Fortunately, across the Atlantic, <strong>Raven&#8217;s Pass</strong> seems to be <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56560/ravens-pass-recuperating-from-surgery?utm_source=twitter">recovering well</a> after colic surgery; he will be off work for a number of weeks, but the Breeders&#8217; Cup Classic winner should be able to return to action (as it were) shortly.<br />
Finally, if you&#8217;re an experienced curator looking for a terribly badly-paying job, why not consider becoming <a href="http://www.kymuseums.org/jobopportunities-details.asp?ItemID=43">Curator of Collections</a> at the (re-opened) <a href="http://www.derbymuseum.org/">Kentucky Derby  Museum</a>? While the collection will be great, it&#8217;s either rather impressive or disturbing to know that there are cultural institutions that pay even more badly than <a href="http://archives.drexelmed.edu/">my own</a>&#8230;still, it&#8217;s a job (for someone else)!</p>
<p>Check back later for more <a href="http://www.bodog.com/horse-betting/">Kentucky  Derby Betting</a> thoughts!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Bandwagoneering</title>
		<link>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/bandwagoneering-2.html</link>
		<comments>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/bandwagoneering-2.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Apr 2010 15:49:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Eskendereya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lookin At Lucky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Odysseus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sidney's Candy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winning Colors]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://superfectablog.com/?p=766</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="wp-caption-text">All aboard? (photo by  Barbara D. Livingston)</p>
<p>While Eskendereya&#8217;s bandwagon continued to gather passengers with his Wood Memorial victory, Lookin At Lucky hit something of a bump in the road in the Santa Anita Derby &#8211; but what both races &#8216;mean&#8217; is still very much up in the air.</p>
<p>First, we&#8217;ll examine the Santa Anita [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 210px"><a href="http://www.drf.com/images/Eskendereya_200x300_13110.jpg"><img style="margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 5px;" title="Eskendereya, by Barbara D. Livingston" src="http://www.drf.com/images/Eskendereya_200x300_13110.jpg" alt="Eskendereya, by Barbara D. Livingston" width="200" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">All aboard? (photo by  Barbara D. Livingston)</p></div>
<p>While <strong>Eskendereya&#8217;s</strong> bandwagon continued to gather passengers with his Wood Memorial victory, <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> hit something of a bump in the road in the Santa Anita Derby &#8211; but what both races &#8216;mean&#8217; is still very much up in the air.</p>
<p>First, we&#8217;ll examine <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5058124">the Santa Anita Derby</a>.  Winner <strong>Sidney&#8217;s Candy</strong> was fortunate in a number of respects &#8211; he&#8217;s a front-runner who was allowed to get loose on the lead, despite a little stumble at the start, and <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> ran into major traffic trouble (but more on that in a moment).  He also clearly relishes the Santa Anita surface, but that will probably knock him down a few notches in many handicappers&#8217; minds come Kentucky Derby day.  While I freely admit that a horse with a synthetics-only record would not normally be my pick at Churchill Downs,<strong> Sidney&#8217;s Candy</strong> has a pedigree that suggests he would be equally at home on traditional dirt or synthetics &#8211; he doesn&#8217;t strike me as a pure synthetic specialist. But without an actual performance on dirt to evaluate, he&#8217;s still below <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> in my estimation &#8211; despite the win over him.</p>
<p>And so to our second and third-place finishes in the race &#8211; <strong>Setsuko</strong> and <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong>.  <strong>Setsuko</strong> is being somewhat overlooked (his placing leaves him on the bubble as far as Derby <a href="http://kentuckyderby.com/news/2010/04/05/graded-stakes-earnings-update-eskendereya-american-lion-jackson-bend-earn-way-derby-">graded earnings</a>), but he ran a decent race; he&#8217;s definitely improved since getting blinkers, but it may be too late for Derby consideration.  <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong>, meanwhile, showed <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5044345">great determination</a> as he fought back to get part of the purse &#8211; but he also managed to get himself into considerable trouble.  Granted, that had a lot to do with his jockey, Garrett Gomez, going one-on-one (or, perhaps, one-on-fence is more accurate) with Victor Espinoza aboard Who&#8217;s Up &#8211; poor <strong>Caracortado</strong> was stuck just behind them, but he also rallied to finish just behind <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong>. While <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> has no worries earnings-wise, the in-race shenanigans will likely lock <strong>Caracortado</strong> out of a Derby slot.  Of course, the real drama was not televised &#8211; after the race, Gomez and Espinoza very nearly <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5058124">came to blows</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>According to other jockeys in the room after the race, Gomez went after Espinoza, and though they pushed, and loud, unprintable words were exchanged, they were separated before any punches could be thrown. One rider, who asked not to be identified, was asked who won.</p>
<p>&#8220;The stewards,&#8221; he cracked.</p></blockquote>
<p>Gomez was eventually <a href="  http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56274/espinoza-gets-3-day-ban-gomez-keeps-lucky">fined for disorderly conduct</a>, while Espinoza picked up <a href="  http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56274/espinoza-gets-3-day-ban-gomez-keeps-lucky">a suspension</a> for his riding.  There was already some bad blood between Espinoza and Team Baffert, so this certainly did not help matters &#8211; but Bob Baffert seemed more annoyed by Gomez&#8217;s overall ride on <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> than the outcome.  Nevertheless, Gomez will <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5058124">retain the mount</a> for the Derby &#8211; and who knows, it may have been a good thing for <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> to face a little more adversity just before he heads to the Derby.  When the twenty-horse stampede moves forward, he should be ready.  It&#8217;s just a shame there&#8217;s no third season of &#8216;Jockeys&#8217; &#8211; this incident would have been perfect (and, quite frankly, I wish I&#8217;d seen it). Only one thing seems certain after the Santa Anita Derby &#8211; <strong>Sidney&#8217;s Candy</strong> won&#8217;t be allowed an easy lead in the Derby.  Of course, I thought that of another Santa Anita Derby winner who went on to win the Derby wire to wire &#8211; one <strong>Winning Colors</strong>.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll now head back to the right coast (yes, flying over <strong>American Lion&#8217;s</strong> <a href="http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=18047">win in the Illinois Derby</a>) for more on <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5044389">the Wood Memorial</a>.  <strong>Eskenderey</strong>a <a href=" http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5044389">made it look easy</a>, but (fortunately, in my opinion) not quite as easy as <strong>Bellamy Road</strong> did a few years back.  He looked as though he had plenty left, and he gives Todd Pletcher by far his best chance yet to finally find the Derby winner&#8217;s circle.  Of course, given that Pletcher may bring something like eight starters, he should be able to increase the odds of another last-place finish as well.  <strong>Eskendereya </strong>will certainly be a bet-against on Derby day, but that will be due to short prices; the horse has done nothing wrong this year. Naturally, there is the concern that he peaked too soon &#8211; his <a href=" http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkwbeQTqjL0JdNYzfqXbZVA">109 Beyer</a> is the highest for a 3-year-old this year &#8211; will he regress in the Derby? In my opinion, the four weeks off in between and his stellar pedigree both make that less of an issue &#8211; but we&#8217;ll see what happens in Kentucky.</p>
<p>We have one more weekend of Derby preps to go &#8211; <strong>Odysseus</strong>, <strong>Interactif</strong> and <strong>Aikenite</strong> will look for earnings in <a href="http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=18054">the Blue Grass</a>, and <strong>Super Saver</strong>, <strong>Noble&#8217;s Promise</strong> and <strong>Dublin</strong> should contest <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/article/111945.html">the Arkansas Derby</a>.  Check back later in the week for more!</p>
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		<title>Wood Memorial &amp; Santa Anita Derby Preview</title>
		<link>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/wood-memorial-santa-anita-derby-preview.html</link>
		<comments>http://superfectablog.com/2010/04/wood-memorial-santa-anita-derby-preview.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Apr 2010 13:13:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blind Luck]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eskendereya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lookin At Lucky]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://superfectablog.com/?p=764</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="wp-caption-text">Can Eskendereya teach Todd to dance?</p>
<p>Todd Pletcher finally looks like he has a real Derby horse.  Granted, he could have something like eight in the starting gate, but the legitimate one runs on Saturday in the Wood Memorial.  Eskendereya tops what should be a great race, facing off against other top Derby hopes including [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 238px"><img title="Eskendereya" src="http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2010/04/01/PH2010040101620.jpg" alt="Eskendereya" width="228" height="182" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Can Eskendereya teach Todd to dance?</p></div>
<p>Todd Pletcher finally looks like he has a real Derby horse.  Granted, he could have something like eight in the starting gate, but the legitimate one runs on Saturday <a href=" http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/2010/04/01/2010-04-01_eskendereya_tops_field_of_6_for_wood.html">in the Wood Memorial</a>.  <strong>Eskendereya</strong> tops what should be a great race, facing off against other <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/02/1559687/top-colts-square-off-in-wood.html">top Derby hopes</a> including <strong>Jackson Bend</strong> (with whom he has a potential rivalry forming).  While it is a small field, it also features tested-on-dirt British import <strong>Awesome Act</strong>, a horse with <a href="http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/stories/Wood2010FunFacts.shtml">a taste for Baileys</a> (sorry, not that one), and <strong>Schoolyard Dreams</strong>, just barely the runner-up to <strong>Odysseus</strong> in the Tampa Bay Derby.  Rounding out the field are <strong>Most Happy Fella</strong> (apparently named <a href="http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/stories/Wood2010FunFacts.shtml">after a Standardbred</a>, and not directly after <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Most_Happy_Fella">the Frank Loesser musical</a>) and <strong>Carnivore</strong>, who <a href="http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/stories/Wood2010FunFacts.shtml">recovered from EPM</a> last year.  Always-well-beaten maiden filly <strong>Nicky Boy</strong> <a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/March/31/Owner-hopes-to-enter-Nicky-Boy-in-Arkansas-Derby.aspx">will not be in the picture</a>.  Despite the obvious talent on show from the main contenders, this is a race they all need &#8211; only <strong>Awesome Act</strong> already has the needed graded earnings, and he&#8217;s still near the more dangerous end of the top twenty.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-136-graded-earnings">Graded earnings</a> are no concern for <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong>, who headlines <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5038872">the Santa Anita Derby</a>, but they are very much needed by his rivals <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/sports/30racing.html">in the race</a>, including <strong>Sidney&#8217;s Candy</strong> (currently on the bubble), <strong>Caracortado</strong>, <strong>Alphie&#8217;s Bet</strong> and (blog favorite) <strong>Cardiff Giant</strong>.  It would be a shame for any of them to miss out on a Derby berth due to earnings, but this is their last chance to scoop up some cash &#8211; and it&#8217;s going to be a very competitive one.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s going to be a great weekend all around (let&#8217;s not forget <strong>Blind Luck</strong> <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/04/01/SPGT1COL92.DTL">in the Fantasy Stakes</a> at Oaklawn) &#8211; enjoy!</p>
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		<title>Will Bambera and Christine Daae Overshadow the Boys?</title>
		<link>http://superfectablog.com/2010/03/will-bambera-and-christine-daae-overshadow-the-boys.html</link>
		<comments>http://superfectablog.com/2010/03/will-bambera-and-christine-daae-overshadow-the-boys.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:34:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bambera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barbaro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christine Daae]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eskendereya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lentenor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zenyatta]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://superfectablog.com/?p=760</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="wp-caption-text">¡Bienvenida a Florida, Bambera!</p>
<p>This weekend&#8217;s Florida Derby looks a little easier with Eskenderya&#8217;s removal to the Wood Memorial; in his absence, Rule is the deserving favorite as the only horse in the field with a US graded stakes win.  Handicappers quite rightly don&#8217;t like betting horses at such short prices, but they may get [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 239px"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_W8HE8R0i3XI/Sv-jScn_cYI/AAAAAAAAARs/bpRFjNtpewc/s320/bambera1.bmp"><img title="Bambera" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_W8HE8R0i3XI/Sv-jScn_cYI/AAAAAAAAARs/bpRFjNtpewc/s320/bambera1.bmp" alt="Bambera" width="229" height="176" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">¡Bienvenida a Florida, Bambera!</p></div>
<p>This weekend&#8217;s <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5006362">Florida Derby</a> looks a little easier with<strong> Eskenderya&#8217;s</strong> removal to the Wood Memorial; in his absence, <strong>Rule</strong> is the deserving favorite as the only horse in the field with a US graded stakes win.  Handicappers quite rightly don&#8217;t like betting horses at such short prices, but they may get a break &#8211; come post time, <strong>Barbaro&#8217;s</strong> brother, <strong><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/18/sports/18brother.html">Lentenor</a></strong>, could well be the favorite (even though it&#8217;s his first start on dirt).  It&#8217;s true that <strong><a href="http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/usa-radiohead-set-for-kentucky-trial-on-saturday/693047/latest/">Radiohead</a></strong> won the G2 Norfolk Stakes at Ascot as a 2-year-old, and he looked good in an allowance race on dirt, but does he really want to go much further than a mile?  I suspect not at present, but <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Might_Be_Wrong">I Might Be Wrong</a>.</p>
<p>Things are a little more exciting in the distaff ranks (again) with <strong>Christine Daae</strong> finally stepping up to stakes competition.  She&#8217;ll take on the talented <strong>Amen Hallelujah</strong> in <a href="http://thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/March/18/Amen-Hallelujah-aims-to-keep-on-rolling-in-Bonnie-Miss.aspx">the Bonnie Miss</a> &#8211; perhaps they will kick off a rivalry.  Many eyes will be on much-touted Venezuelan import <strong><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=5003103">Bambera</a></strong> in <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55955/bambera-adds-international-flavor-to-rampart">the Rampart Stakes</a>; a good effort here will send her to take on<strong> Zenyatta</strong> in the Apple Blossom &#8211; but she&#8217;ll have <a href="http://sidfernando.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/bambera-has-venezuelan-jinx-to-deal-with-in-us-debut/">a jinx</a> (plus more weight than she&#8217;s ever carried) to overcome.  Nevertheless, it&#8217;s a good opportunity to get a first look at her in this country &#8211; hopefully she will prove to be a star here as well.</p>
<p>Those disappointed by the NTRA&#8217;s <a href="http://superfectablog.com/2010/03/what-failure-really-looks-like.html">epic fail</a> last weekend can give them another shot (or enjoy yet more failure) for the Florida Derby, which they are also <a href="http://www.ntra.com/blog/index/view/OTc2">attempting to webcast</a>.  I&#8217;d advise outsourcing the webcast, since there seems to be too little investment in real technology (and techies) to make it happen &#8211; why not just give Randy Moss his podcast back?  That should be easy enough to accomplish, and living up to limited expectations would at least be a start&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Eskendereya and Much Else</title>
		<link>http://superfectablog.com/2010/02/750.html</link>
		<comments>http://superfectablog.com/2010/02/750.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Feb 2010 19:55:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Christine Daae]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eskendereya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Friesan Fire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gio Ponti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rachel Alexandra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zenyatta]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://superfectablog.com/?p=750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p class="wp-caption-text">Eskendereya gets a paycheck for someone</p>
<p>We finally had a weekend of real Derby preps!  Eskendereya put in the fine performance we expected to see last week &#8211; and then some.  His runaway win in the Fountain of Youth earned a 106 Beyer &#8211; the highest by a 3-year-old so far this season, and his [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 277px"><a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/images/eskendereya-foy-cog.jpg"><img title="Eskendereya gets a paycheck for someone" src="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/images/eskendereya-foy-cog.jpg" alt="Eskendereya gets a paycheck for someone" width="267" height="200" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Eskendereya gets a paycheck for someone</p></div>
<p>We finally had a weekend of real Derby preps!  <strong>Eskendereya</strong> put in the fine performance <a href="http://superfectablog.com/2010/02/three-year-olds-thumbs-up.html">we expected to see</a> last week &#8211; and then some.  His <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/02/21/1491939/eskendereya-has-rosy-outlook-after.html">runaway win</a> in the Fountain of Youth earned a <a href="http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2010/02/flirty-alexandrian-dance.html">106 Beyer</a> &#8211; the highest by a 3-year-old <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkwbeQTqjL0JdNYzfqXbZVA">so far this season</a>, and his bandwagon seems to have picked up at least a few passengers.  <strong>Buddy&#8217;s Saint</strong> has no real chance to show off &#8211; he was <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55508/buddys-saint-ok-after-fountain-of-youth">bumped around considerably</a> before the first turn, and essentially taken out of the race.  Meanwhile, the ongoing legal tussle between Fifth Third Bank and <strong>Eskendereya&#8217;s </strong>owner, Ahmed Zayat, <a href="http://www.kentucky.com/2010/02/22/1151698/bank-backs-off-takeover-of-zayats.html">continues apace</a> &#8211; but it would seem that <strong>Eskendereya&#8217;s</strong> win was good for somebody, somewhere in that tangle.</p>
<p>While not as visually impressive, Bob Baffert&#8217;s second-stringer, <strong>Conveyance</strong>, took the Southwest <a href="http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2010/February/20/Front-running-Conveyance-wins-Southwest.aspx">in style</a>; <strong>Lookin At Lucky</strong> is still a <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/article/110996.html">few weeks off</a> from his 3-year-old debut, but Baffert should feel quite confident that, barring injury, he&#8217;s got at least one Derby horse in the barn.  <strong>Dublin</strong> was a close second in the Southwest, with blog favorite <a href="http://superfectablog.com/2010/02/horses-and-hoaxes.html"><strong>Cardiff Giant</strong></a> in third.  <strong>Conveyance</strong> and <strong>Cardiff Giant</strong> have finished in the top three in two Derby preps, now, and <strong>Dublin</strong> seems to be moving forward &#8211; the California contingent looks strong (at least from this late February vantage point).</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://ntra.com/blog.aspx?blogid=17&amp;year=2010&amp;month=2&amp;day=23">Discreetly Mine</a></strong> also marked himself as one to watch in the Risen Star, while <strong>D&#8217;Funnybone</strong> and <strong>A Little Warm</strong> went one-two in <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/article/110956.html">the Hutcheson</a>.  Like <strong>Eskendereya</strong>, <strong>Discreetly Mine</strong> is trained by Todd Pletcher, who also had a win over the weekend in the El Camino Real derby with <strong>Connemara</strong> &#8211; that&#8217;s one way to kick off a <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55518/pletcher-begins-serving-suspension">ten-day suspension</a>!</p>
<p>But the 3-year-old fillies are at work as well &#8211; <strong>Christine Daae </strong>worked a bullet at Gulfstream today, and <strong>Bickersons</strong> and <strong>Amen Hallelujah</strong> are aiming to take her on in the Davona Dale <a href="http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&amp;id=45012">on Saturday</a>.  There is much to look forward to in their division.</p>
<p>Things did not go as expected in Older Horse  Land &#8211; <strong>Friesan Fire</strong> and <strong>Gio Ponti</strong> both missed out on the winner&#8217;s circle.  <strong>Friesan Fire</strong> battled with <strong>General Quarters</strong> in the stretch of <a href="http://www.nola.com/horseracing/index.ssf/2010/02/mineshaft_long_shot_stonehouse.html">the Mineshaft</a>, but both were outrun by <strong><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/stonehouse">Stonehouse</a></strong>, a little-heralded 6-year-old with 10 wins out of 38 starts (and another 11 finishes in the money).  <strong>General Quarters</strong> managed to hang on for second (which seems to have become his <a href="http://www.norwichbulletin.com/sports/x531839576/Horse-Racing-General-Quarters-second-again-beat-by-longshot">preferred finish</a>), but <strong>Friesan Fire</strong> ended up fourth behind <strong>Giant Oak</strong>.  Things did not go as expected for <strong>Gio Ponti</strong> either &#8211; he acted up in the gate and ended up second (by a nose) to <strong>Karelian</strong> <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/article/110955.html">at Tampa Bay Downs</a>.  However, as it&#8217;s his first race after a bit of a layoff, the fact that he still managed to pick up a check is encouraging &#8211; this race was more of a prep than a &#8216;must win&#8217; for him.</p>
<p>Finally, there&#8217;s some entirely awesome news &#8211; yes, there will be <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55516/50000-trading-cards-to-promote-apple-blossom">Apple Blossom trading cards</a>.  I can see some quality eBay time in my future as a result of this announcement.  For all Apple Blossom news, continue to check out the <a href="http://www.appleblossominvitational.com/">official website</a>, but also visit the coolest horse racing tumblr site (well, OK, the only horse racing tumblr site) I&#8217;ve ever seen: <a href="http://ra-zen-hell.tumblr.com/">RA-Zen hell blog</a>.  It&#8217;s all good.</p>
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