Superfectablog v3.0 » English Channel

Turn Around, Bright Eyes (2008)

admin — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 19:27:00 +0000

The Eclipse Awards presented (in the words of Radiohead) no surprises; Curlin was duly crowned Horse of the Year and Three-Year-Old Colt – ESPN notes that only last year, he had yet to make his first start. Chief owner Jess Jackson continued to send out positive signals about Curlin’s continued career on the track, but of course there are still those pesky legal issues to work out before he can move forward toward a trip to Dubai.

The public got to vote on ‘Moment of the Year’ this time out, with Rags to Riches‘ triumph in the Belmont as the very deserving winner. It’s even more impressive in hindsight when you consider Curlin’s place in the firmament now.

Perhaps my only quibble with the results is Lawyer Ron’s Champion Older Male title; not to take anything away from Lawyer Ron, but English Channel continuously faced and beat world-class competition — while the Male Turf Horse category is clearly his, it says a lot about the relative status of turf racing in the US that he is relegated to a secondary title.

The Guardian’s sportblog had a rather interesting take on the Eclipse Awards, not only noting racing’s much higher profile in the UK but also pointing out that the award for best trainer was:

…reckoned to be a match between Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, both of whom, somewhat inconveniently, were serving suspensions for breaches of the anti-doping rules when the racing year opened back in January 2007.

Oh, that. Moving swiftly onward…

They also suggest that racing’s revenue potential is ‘equivalent to that of the NBA‘ and yet it remains ‘the sport that dare not speak its name.’

While it’s lovely to hand out awards (provided you have writers, of course), if racing is really making as much cash as the NBA, someone really ought to be marketing that information…

How They Rank

admin — Wed, 16 Jan 2008 19:59:00 +0000

The World Thoroughbred Racehorse Rankings were recently released; Curlin is the highest-rated US-based horse, coming in tied for second with Authorized, Dylan Thomas and Invasor (despite his retirement early in the season). Street Sense, English Channel, Any Given Saturday and Lawyer Ron also make the top ten. Rags to Riches comes in at 13th overall, and ranks first on the filly & mare listing; the rankings are also available in a number of different categories.

But they all come behind the German-bred Manduro (right); he was unbeaten last year at five and is now at Kildangan Stud. As impressive as his numbers are, the Belfast Telegraph notes that:

…although Manduro’s mark of 131 makes him an exceptional performer, and the best world champion since Hawk Wing earned 133 in 2004, it should be remembered that the very best of the bests – a Sea-Bird or Secretariat – have a four as their middle number.

and moreover:

But although the top quintet were way above average, those beneath came up short. “It’s rare to have as many as five that good,” said the senior Irish Flat handicapper, Garry O’Gorman. “but there was a bit of a soft underbelly.”

Aiming to make their mark on next year’s rankings are 3-year-olds El Gato Malo and Z Fortune, who both won races this previous weekend. El Gato Malo looked good, but I sill have yet to pick a bandwagon to jump on just yet.

Finally, it seems that a solution has possibly been found for Santa Anita’s Cushion Track nightmare — we’ll see if it pans out.

Walkovers for Curlin?

admin — Fri, 09 Nov 2007 15:02:00 +0000

Gary West has a will-he-or-won’t-he article on Jess Jackson and his possible future goals for Curlin now that Padua has offloaded their share in him (although clearly the whole ownership piece is going to keep the courtrooms of Kentucky in business for a long time to come). If Curlin does remain in training next year (and of course I hope he does), it begs the question of exactly whom is he going to run against? The best of his generation have all been retired to stud (even though Hard Spun just seemed to get better and better and Any Given Saturday could have used another run over a drier track) and while there is theoretically some slight possibility that we could see Rags to Riches next year (although TVG’s on-track feed referred to her minor injury as ‘career-ending’ during the Breeders’ Cup – do they have inside information or are they just assuming?), it seems unlikely.

Perhaps the best hope is that he just comes out for a series of walkovers early in the year while he waits for War Pass and his agemates to grow up; things could really kick off come August 2008. The Dubai World Cup doesn’t seem to have any real contenders at this point either; it seems that he may as well add that feather to his cap too. Of course, some Smart Strike offspring (notably English Channel) like the turf – can anyone imagine Curlin facing off against Better Talk Now? If it did indeed turn out that Curlin likes both surfaces, that would open up a new realm of possibilities.

So, I leave it to you, dear readers – whom would you like to see take on Curlin next year?

Weekend Metapost

admin — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 16:09:00 +0000

It was quite a weekend of racing; things are shaping up nicely for the Breeders’ Cup. First, the West Coast:

Tiago performed well in his first outing against older horses in the Goodwood Handicap (Lava Man was scratched in favor of a race next weekend), although he was certainly tested by Awesome Gem — nevertheless, his victory was very professional. I would also like to see more of third-place finisher Lewis Michael, perhaps in a slightly shorter race; I believe he has a lot of potential but has never quite found his rhythm although he seems comfortable on both dirt and grass. Some may recall he finished third to a horse named Barbaro in the Florida Derby and did not look bad in that defeat; I’d like to see him in the Dirt Mile.

Nashoba’s Key switched back to grass for the Yellow Ribbon and still remains unbeaten, holding off a strong challenge from Citronnade. As I’ve mentioned before, the Filly & Mare Turf division is going to be the hardest one to handicap — but more on that later. It is perhaps more impressive to consider that Nashoba’s Key began this winning streak when she began her racing career earlier this year as a four-year-old and she seems to improve with each race.

Switching to the East Coast, but staying with the girls on grass, the Flower Bowl was certainly an interesting race. Lahudood set a stakes record in her win (her first graded win in America, as a helpful reader has pointed out), but Roskina (one of my picks) was a fine second ahead of Wait a While. It seems that the talented My Typhoon was not a huge fan of the very firm going, as she was never a factor (but she should not be discounted come Breeders’ Cup day). As mentioned above, the Filly & Mare Turf division is full of talent already — once everyone else ships in from Europe, it’s practically a toss-up since a good argument can be made for any number of top horses. It’s going to be a highlight of Breeders’ Cup day.

Discreet Cat’s return to the races in the Vosburgh did not play out as planned; his dull third was not a particularly confidence-inspiring performance, but the excuses are built-in — the long layoff, he needed the race, he needed more distance (although he certainly did not seem to need it at that particular point in time), etc. But the good news is that it means the new Dirt Mile will have a marquee contender, which is something it probably needed — and it should also mean that he needs to stay in training next year to really prove himself. If anything, the victory by Fabulous Strike should continue to raise his sire Smart Strike’s stud fee — three grade I wins for his offspring in one weekend (see English Channel and Curlin below) cannot hurt.

Back on the turf, English Channel looked tremendous in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (his second victory in the race, which is a remarkable statistic these days for a stallion); I don’t know whether that means he’s quite in the same league as some of the expected European heavy-hitters, but it was a gutsy run and a very encouraging sign. It would be nice to see more horses with a career of consistent top-level performances. Given that he was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf as a 3-year old and third last year, he does have a good shot, but it’s going to be a tough race.

The Distaff division is clearly missing Rags to Riches; Unbridled Belle looked good beating stablemate Indian Vale in the Beldame although Ginger Punch did not seem quite her usual self. While Unbridled Belle seems to be coming into her own, she’s not really in the same class as Rags to Riches and the division is poorer for her absence. Without her, it’s a reasonably solid, but somewhat uninspiring group. However, I’ve always maintained that winning the Del Cap can propel a mare on to bigger and better things, and Unbridled Belle clearly took that to heart — not bad for a $4,000 purchase.

Finally, of course, the Classic division. As predicted, Hard Spun bested Street Sense, but he had everything his own way in a tiny field and on a surface he loves. He’s unlikely to get to set the pace and lead wire to wire in the Classic, which seems to be his preferred running style; Street Sense didn’t look tired to me as much as not necessarily pushed to his full potential — the race seemed more of a rehearsal for him. As I’ve said before, I like Hard Spun a lot and would love him at a mile (and he looked fine at the 1 1/8 as well), but I’m not sure he loves the 1 1/4 distance, and Street Sense does. As ever, trainer Carl Nafzger made no excuses and looks forward to the next dance:

Carl Nafzger, handler of Street Sense, was gracious in defeat. “It was up to him at the head of the lane to get by Hard Spun,” he said, “but he just outran us. We were right there and we got beat; that’s horseracing, no excuses. But we’re ready for next time.”

Curlin proved me wrong, gamely holding off Lawyer Ron in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, although Lawyer Ron didn’t do himself any favors — he seemed rank early on and was in the center of the track for much of the race. It could easily be argued that he just prefers Saratoga to Belmont — but even if that is the case, it seems there was some concern from trainer Steve Asmussen that Lawyer Ron’s pressure was a tough challenge for Curlin:

Asmussen called the Gold Cup “trophies in their own right” but acknowledged it was not his ultimate goal. That comes in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 27 at Monmouth Park.

“Everyone knows the Classic is the pinnacle,” he said. “And I’m extremely concerned that he left too much out there today.”

The bottom line is that all the Classic contenders who raced this past weekend looked good and will likely go off at relatively short odds on come the evening of Breeders’ Cup Saturday, but I can imagine quite a few scenarios in which a European horse runs off with the prize. We’ll have to wait and see who ships in…

We’re Off To See The Tin Man

admin — Fri, 10 Aug 2007 19:52:00 +0000

While it’s a shame we won’t be seeing Better Talk Now this weekend in the Sword Dancer (which, really, should make it a walkover for English Channel if he’s in good form), we do have an exciting Arlington Million to look forward to. It’s hard not to root for The Tin Man (and I’m not even going to try not to) but there is plenty of buzz around After Market as well. On something of a down note, there’s an article in the Chicago Sun-Times lamenting that the Arlington Million is not quite as much of a draw as it once was:

Added British racing writer Paul Haigh in The Guardian: ”This weekend, we have an American reminder of how the status of races change. When the Arlington Million was first run … the concept of a $1M race dropped jaws. Now the calendar is full of races worth far more, many of them in countries whose racing we took no notice of … back in the days when the Million provided the model for the Breeders’ Cup.”

…

In 2000, when the downward drift of the Million became powerfully evident, management upped the purse to $2 million. The one-year experiment resulted in a seven-horse starting field — still the lowest in race history — and endless outcries from local horsemen about the diminishment of their daily purse account. The pot has held at $1 million ever since, a sum now roughly equal to $665,000 in 1981 dollars.

Yet, as Richard Mandella said after his The Tin Man wired nine challengers last August to win Million XXIV: ”There’s not a trainer on the planet who wouldn’t relish winning any one of the three Arlington classics. The lure remains enormous.”

I would argue that if The Tin Man can pull it off again (at age nine, just like John Henry did), that would be a story to add some luster back to the race. And hey, Chicagoist picked up that it’s happening!

The Secretariat Stakes has a well-named headliner in Red Giant, but there’s always the possibility that Love Dubai could get it together (and at a great price) and pull an upset.

Speaking of walkovers, there’s a lot of talk that the Beverly D. will be one for Citronnade (who is rightly feared), but I still have my money on Honey Ryder. She might not be back at her best right now, but I think she can certainly get back there.

In some sad news, Hennessy has died in Argentina, where he was shuttling. Feel free to discuss the possibility of how breeding to hundreds of mares in two hemispheres every year could potentially bring about an early heart attack…

Finally, don’t forget to tune in to the ABC broadcast — there will be another installment of Dr. Dean Richardson’s horse health segments, as well as the public service announcement he filmed a while back (although it’s not clear where exactly in the broadcast that will air). Set your TiVos — and come on, The Tin Man! I’m off to see Crowded House in the meantime…

Belmont Undercard

admin — Thu, 07 Jun 2007 19:20:00 +0000

Saturday should be a great day of racing – not only will we be treated to Rags to Riches taking on Curlin, but we have a fantastic undercard to enjoy. Here are my thoughts on the (other) big races on the day — and don’t forget to tune in to CBS News tonight to see a segment on the stellar work of Old Friends while you’re making your own picks.

Birdstone Stakes
This is going to be a fun one – AP Arrow, Evening Attire, Papi Chullo, Hesanoldsalt and Naughty New Yorker are all hard-knocking horses, often with a lot of history among them. I always support Evening Attire, but think it might be Hesanoldsalt getting to the wire first.

True North Handicap
Dashboard Drummer, Keyed Entry and Bordonaro are all good if somewhat underachieving horses; Garrett Gomez picks up the mount on Council Member, though, which leads me to believe he knows something about how he may run.

Just a Game Stakes
This is a very exciting race on paper. Wait A While is as classy as they come, but My Typhoon, Mauralakana, Miss Shop and Take the Ribbon are all very worthy competitors. I’ll stick with Wait A While to win, but it should be a tremendous finish.

Woody Stephens Breeders’ Cup Stakes
We see some familiar names here – Stormello and Teuflesberg return from the Triple Crown trail but Street Magician should help keep Street Cry’s stud fee moving on up. I also like Hobbitontherocks – he always seems to help round out a nice trifecta for me. I’ve long felt Stormello is a good sprinter, so he may well take the win – but my head says Street Magician, Stormello, Hobbitontherocks.

Acorn Stakes
This will actually be a race worth betting in the absence of Rags to Riches; I like Cotton Blossom a lot but am curious to see Christmas Kid in this field.

Manhattan Handicap
Welcome back, English Channel and Better Talk Now (minus Shake the Bank)! This is not going to be a walkover for anyone — Sky Conqueror and Cosmonaut are both very tough and Steppenwolfer should finally get a chance to see whether he likes the turf at a longer distance. Shakis is making his US debut and is something of an unknown quantity. I’d love to see an English Channel/Better Talk Now exacta.

Check back tomorrow for my full Belmont field notes…

Changing Plans

admin — Wed, 04 Apr 2007 13:10:00 +0000

While I cannot agree that this year’s Wood Memorial is ‘the last major Kentucky Derby prep race — and the biggest‘ (that honor goes to the Blue Grass) it will still be fun to watch. Although I’ll be out of town and will miss watching the race live, I fully expect my TiVo to show me a tough Nobiz Like Shobiz. I’m not thrilled that Circular Quay will be skipping the race to train right up to the Derby (an eight-week layoff?), but it will be a welcome return for Any Given Saturday who is taking his spot in the gate (and you can’t blame him for wanting to defect from the Blue Grass).

This year’s Blue Grass has been described as ‘basically the Derby‘ since it should feature so many heavy hitters — Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun are just the main headliners — but there’s word that Hard Spun could skip the race as well. It’s definitely still fluid at this point.

Avoiding that field in the interests of gaining more graded earnings is Sedgefield, who will be running at Keeneland in the Transylvania this weekend. He certainly seems one to watch, and it’s presumably not his fault that he’s named after Tony Blair’s constituency. It will be interesting to see in the future if he really takes to dirt (as opposed to Polytrack) as he’s a full brother to turf enthusiast English Channel. Let’s hope this move proves smarter than the Transylvania College students who stole manuscripts from their college library and tried to sell them at Christies, apparently not realizing that when you steal rare books everyone in the field knows about it and is on the lookout for them. They could always watch the race from prison.

In non-Derby-prep news, Funny Cide returns to the races on Friday at Keeneland. He’s been having great workouts — hopefully he feels like running in the afternoon as well.

Breeders’ Cup Wrap-Up

admin — Sun, 05 Nov 2006 18:44:00 +0000

Well, another Breeders’ Cup is over, but at least I’m only down $40. Here are my thoughts on each race:

Juvenile Fillies
Dreaming of Anna lived up to her pre-race hype; I’d be most interested to see her mature into a turf miler, though, rather than heading toward the Oaks next year.

Juvenile
Well, it was certainly impressive to see Street Sense’s 10-length victory; whether we’ve just seen his career-best will remain to be seen, but Circular Quay did better than I expected and Great Hunter was in the mix as well. I still think we’ll start to see next year’s real Triple Crown contenders over the next few weeks, but it was a much better showing than I anticipated.

Filly & Mare Turf
More brilliance from Ouija Board, of course, and fine efforts by Film Maker and Honey Ryder. Hitting the board in this race three times (particularly behind Ouija Board) as Film Maker has is nothing to be ashamed of. She also proved (again) she’s as game as they come. Wait a While was a bit disappointing, but I am looking forward to seeing her come back next year for another shot.

Sprint
I’d thrown out Bordonaro because I felt we’d seen his best in his last outing (which was very impressive), but didn’t expect Henny Hughes to be quite so lackluster. I like Thor’s Echo but I’d have never picked him. It’s nice to see his good second in the Golden Shaheen was no fluke. It didn’t exactly help my Pick Three, but it was a fun race to watch.

Mile
After I declared that Miesque’s Approval and Better Talk Now were fantastic but weren’t going to hit the board, they clearly had it in for me. Apart from Gorella’s poor showing, it was a great race. Top tip for ESPN: when you tell us that Miesque’s Approval’s ‘grandfather’ won this race as well, you get a pass for getting it wrong once. Repeating it is not cool. If you didn’t know Miesque is a mare, you might want to mark that one down for future reference. (In case you were wondering where she is now, she lives at Lane’s End, near her son Kingmambo).

Distaff
This was obviously a tough one to watch. On the one hand, Round Pond ran a great race (my only decent payoff of the day), and it was wonderful to see Michael Matz and Edgar Prado back together in the winner’s circle. Seeing two top horses go down was not part of the plan. Pine Island was never much to look at, but she was a classy runner. At least the news on Fleet Indian was more positive, although it really didn’t look good from the coverage. Another top tip for ESPN: let’s not keep showing the fatal breakdown — twice was too much. I think we’ve already been here with Go for Wand (I wonder if the Distaff statistically has more fatal breakdowns — it seems unlikely, but I’m curious). The rest of the coverage of the injuries was reasonably tasteful — letting the viewing public know what was going on was as far as it needed to go. Clearly the status of the horse is reflected in the injury coverage; when Funfair broke down in the Mile last year, mention of it was more of an afterthought. (We were at the race and saw it all too well; on television it was much harder to see what took place in that instance). Get well soon, Fleet Indian, and congrats to Round Pond. Note to the Baltimore Sun: Distaff implies female, last time I checked.

Turf
Another nice ride by Housewives’ Fav(u)orite^tm Frankie Dettori (now also the Shoemaker Award winner) got Red Rocks into the winner’s circle; as mentioned above, Better Talk Now ran a great race to get up for second — Cacique didn’t really bring his A game to this one (rather like Hurricane Run). Nice showing by English Channel, though.

Classic
Kenny Mayne called it again! Invasor was, indeed, the best. Bernardini made a move on the turn for home that looked quite impressive — and Invasor just inhaled him. If this is what happens when Bernardini finally looks an opponent in the eyes, it wasn’t much of a response. It was hardly an embarassing defeat, but I would hope it was enough to keep Bernardini in training next year. I sincerely doubt it, but there’s no harm in hoping. Premium Tap’s solid third has been somewhat overlooked, but he and Giacomo were impressive. I’ve never been a Giacomo fan, but he ran a great race too — his fouth-place finish was not unimpressive.

Conclusions: Post one was clearly the place to be; earning over two million dollars in defeat is not a terrible fate; we need more research into track safety.

Tags:
Horse Racing, Breeders’ Cup

Breeders’ Cup Picks

admin — Thu, 02 Nov 2006 17:08:00 +0000

The European perspective seems a bit glum in some quarters; in others, they are simply surprised that George Washington is not being seen as a conquering hero by the Americans.

Here in the States, there is comparatively little Bernardini-centered coverage compared with a number of European articles focusing on star horses; one of the few is here but it does seem his potential talents are being overlooked (or simply assumed) while the spotlight remains on his owners (or, more specifically, their vast wealth). I’d prefer to see what he’s really capable of instead of hearing about Dubai, but it seems that’s the angle everyone is going for.

But I digress…on to my picks:

Juvenile Fillies
I’m not overly-impressed by any in this group so far, but I like Dreaming of Anna‘s workouts and think Octave could do more down the line. Frankly, it’s something of a toss-up.
Dreaming of Anna/Octave exacta box
Longshot: Gatorize

Juvenile
Again, with the 2-year-old colts, I believe we have yet to see the best of the crop at this point; I wasn’t convinced from his last performance that Circular Quay wanted to go any sort of distance, but Great Hunter and Scat Daddy have looked good (and besides, Great Hunter is a local boy). I like Teuflesburg and I am not sure why.
Great Hunter, Scat Daddy exacta
Longshot: Teuflesburg

Filly & Mare Turf
This is one I’m really looking forward to; I love Ouija Board and hope she goes out on a win, but I expect a great performance from many others in the race — Wait a While, Film Maker and Honey Ryder are all possible spoilers. I’ll limit myself to two choices, but I’d love to see Wait a While back next year.
Ouija Board
Wait a While
Longshot: I don’t think I’ll bother on this one

Sprint
The Sprint also showcases a deep field. On paper, it looks like Henny Hughes or Pomeroy; while there are others on the board with shorter prices, I think Lewis Michael has been flying just under the radar and could pull an upset.
Henny Hughes, Pomeroy exacta
Longshot: Lewis Michael

Mile
This is another tricky one, also full of horses I really like. I love Gorella (and I always pick the girl against the boys), so she’s a natural choice. Aragorn and Miesque’s Approval are other favorites of mine, and Aussie Rules at 10-1 is a fantastic price. I don’t want to ignore Librettist either, but I’m still picking Aussie Rules over him. Speaking of Gorella, anyone want to buy her dam?
Gorella
Gorella/Aussie Rules exacta box
Longshot: Ad Valorem

Distaff
It’s Fleet Indian all the way. Balletto and Round Pond will give her a run for her money, but I’m singling her.
Fleet Indian
Longshot: Round Pond

Turf
Hurricane Run is a deserving favorite, but Cacique and English Channel have scores to settle with each other. It’s great to see Better Talk Now back for another shot too — and at 12-1, he’s my longshot without question. Otherwise, I freely admit this is chalkier than chalk could be.
Hurricane Run, Cacique, English Channel trifecta box
Longshot: Better Talk Now

The Classic
Obviously leaving out Bernardini would be foolish; however, I still like the Europeans for a little value, so I’m throwing in George Washington and David Junior as well. I am a big fan of both Lava Man and Perfect Drift and believe they will run well, but that it just won’t be their day. Check out this hagiographic article on George Washington before you make your choice. Speaking of sainthood, contrast this article in USA Today on the Maktoums to the Beyer one from the Washington Post the other day. Interesting.
Bernardini, George Washington, Lava Man trifecta box
David Junior, Bernardini, Perfect Drift trifecta box
Longshot: Flower Alley – hey, you never know.

Tags:
Horse Racing, Breeders’ Cup

Dylan Thomas May Need A Drink

admin — Mon, 09 Oct 2006 21:56:00 +0000

Bernardini — what else is there to say about the Jockey Club Gold Cup? He never seemed to break a sweat. I did feel badly for Dylan Thomas; he’s a fantastic horse, but he clearly hated the surface (and it is interesting to see dirt described as an ‘artificial surface’ as the Independent does — this is perhaps the most animated discussion of the race I’ve seen). Perhaps the second most impressive performance on Saturday was from Aussie Rules in the Shadwell Turf Mile; it must be nice to have some choices as far as who you’re sending on to the Mile (see George Washington, below). Aragorn looked great at the distance as well.

In the mile-and-a-half category, English Channel looked good, although I was more impressed by Freedonia; I’ll be interested in seeing her down the line.

Henny Hughes was the predictable Vosburgh winner; quite the opposite to the peculiar Spinster results. It was nice to see Fleet Indian challenged a bit — she showed some grit in edging out Balletto. I think I called Honey Ryder in the Flower Bowl, didn’t I? Nope, I had Angara. Typical!

Lava Man looked good in the Goodwood, but I’m still not convinced he’s got any sort of shot against Bernardini beyond the ‘it’s horse racing/anything can happen’ scenario. He is a much more legitimate contender than Giacomo, however; no, he didn’t look bad getting up for third, but the Classic this year? Really? I had a lot more confidence in Brother Derek’s performance — he looked more like his old self again.

While we know Dylan Thomas did not enjoy the dirt, do we have evidence George Washington does? It’s an interesting idea to point him to the Classic, but the mile really seems like his best distance. One wonders how much of this is simply Coolmore throwing everything they have at Bernardini. At least it looks as though Invasor is back on track for the race.

Finally, some great Barbaro summaries and photos are available here. (And don’t miss the articles here and here). Can you tell I enjoy my new job?

Tags:
Horse Racing, Bernardini, Barbaro