As a member of the ill-fated Saint Liam’s single crop of foals, Havre de Grace was no bargain on paper – she cost $380,000 as a yearling – but she has more than justified her purchase price by never running out of the money; capturing the same G1 race her sire is almost an added bonus at this point. By contrast, Blind Luck cost a mere $11,000 as a yearling, and she went unsold a year later. Her sire, the underrated, half-blind Pollard’s Vision, is still bargain-priced (and very much alive); while it’s tempting to imagine what he might produce with some more ‘fashionable’ mares, Blind Luck’s pedigree is one of the things that makes her so interesting – I always like to see some Broad Brush in there.

The two began their careers on opposite coasts, with Havre de Grace running well at Delaware Park (though she made her sole 2-year-old start fairly late in the year); Blind Luck began in California, mostly under the tutelage of Jerry Hollendorfer, with a solid 2-year-old career that was capped off with an unlucky third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The rivalry kicked off in earnest last summer, when Blind Luck just bested Havre de Grace three times in a row, then they finished 2-3 in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff Ladies’ Classic. This year their first meeting was at Oaklawn, with Blind Luck taking the Azeri. More recently, their thrilling Del Cap (and one really must credit both fillies when describing this year’s race) is probably going to be unchallenged for the best race of the year. Of course, if both Blind Luck and Havre de Grace make the Beldame, that title could be in jeopardy; imagine what we’ve got in store if both millionaire fillies stay healthy for Breeders’ Cup weekend (regardless of which of the marquee races they wind up in).

While there is much to look forward to (including the inevitable Horse of the Year discussion), it’s well worth relishing the moment – Jones and Porter certainly were doing just that, and they deserved it after the Eight Belles tragedy. And for the fans, it’s a rare enough thing to witness such an exciting rivalry – there are certainly shades of Sunday Silence-Easy Goer in the Blind Luck-Havre de Grace matchup, and it’s entirely possible that we will eventually consider them as a set, much like Affirmed and Alydar.

Finally, if someone could persuade Rick Porter to wear a fez with his bow tie, I would be most grateful. The world needs more horse racing/geek crossover, and he’s already halfway there.

Also yesterday, Evita Argentina beat the boys in the San Vincente in great style. She reminded me very much of Megahertz in her last-to-first move – I’d love to see her follow a similar career path (although as an aside, I wonder why Megahertz is being bred to stallions who are nearly a good two hands taller than she is – she’s already living proof that a tiny horse can be a strong, solid winner – but I digress). Evita Argentina was the first filly to win the race since 1947 – I’m hoping to see her in more sprints down the line, although it sounds as though her next start, possibly in the Fair Grounds Oaks, would aim for more distance.

Over the weekend, Chocolate Candy had no real trouble in the El Camino Real; the Jenny Craig-owned (and bred) son of Candy Ride will likely head to Santa Anita next, and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer seems to be taking a pleasingly old-school approach with him:

“We want to run in the Santa Anita Derby but we’ll also look at the San Felipe Stakes,” said Hollendorfer. “There are different approaches to the Kentucky Derby, but I think the fitter the horse, the better his chance to win. A lot of people go in there with fewer races but most horses that do well have a foundation under them.”

Chocolate Candy’s win earned him a Beyer of 90 (so he’s got a ways to go to get into the Old Fashioned eschelon), but that was encouraging, given that now-4-year-old El Gato Malo only managed an 85 in his win in the McCann’s Mojave on the same card.

Sticking with last weekend, Santa Teresita managed to defeat Leah’s Secret and Visit in the Santa Maria Handicap – while there was some trouble in the gate when Country Star sat down in it (she was uninjured, but scratched) which may have thrown everyone else off their game, it’s still nice to see Santa Teresita get a win in this sort of company.

Alas, the same cannot be said for poor Brass Hat, who finished eighth in the Dust Commander – perhaps it is time for retirement, but he’s bounced back from down times before. I’d like to see him take another shot first if he’s healthy and sound before heading out to pasture.

And with that, I’ll head off to continue my birthday celebrations, which chiefly include searching for a 19th-century photo that may not exist and working on other reference requests – it’s all good!

I first wondered why we have a twenty-horse field in 2006; at that time I considered that while the large field could lead to safety concerns, to my mind the larger issue is determining whether all those horses deserve to be there; it’s no fun to watch a bunch of sprinters who have no business being in a mile-and-a-quarter race impeding a horse with a legitimate chance.

This year, I examined the history of the twenty-horse field and noted that it is a comparatively recent phenomenon (even in 1985, only thirteen horses made the cut, and in the 1990s fields were often large, but not necessarily hitting the twenty-mark). In that respect, it’s hardly an august tradition worth protecting, nor does maintaining it force the underlying issue – who really should get a ticket to the big dance? While I would be thrilled if making the field smaller added to the safety of all competitors, I would also very much appreciate the dialogue that one hopes would be generated by bringing such a size limit into force.

I don’t think that relying on graded earnings is a terrible way to make those decisions, but as I’ve argued before, the formula could use some refinement. I’m not convinced a horse with no wins (or at least respectable finishes) at 3 but a bumper bankroll from his (or her) 2-year-old year is what we should be encouraging to line up on the first Saturday in May. By the same token, a horse who is suddenly coming into his own just around Derby day but who doesn’t have the earnings is, at present, often locked out. You can argue that is entirely fair – if the horse had a weak foundation, there was probably a reason for that – but you might be losing a hype horse who could bring in fans and television viewers. Assembling a panel to choose ‘wildcard’ entries has its own potential pitfalls (even at the most basic ‘assembling the panel’ stage), but it could be worth considering.

As a general rule of thumb I tend to assume about half the field doesn’t deserve to be there come Derby Day – especially when it’s as large as twenty horses. If limiting the field size marks a return to more traditional paths to the race (and sparks discussion over how to choose the final field), I’m all in favor of the move.

Drugs
everyone keeps mentioning banning medication and it seems like a no-brainer, yet there’s no clear answer as to exactly what would have to happen to make it a reality. New York OK’d Lasix when it seemed that their ban on it was preventing a Triple Crown – would it not have made more sense to make everyone else adhere to their standards? Keeping drugs out of sales would be nice too.

Kudos to ESPN for actually listing out the typical medications used today in the US and even bigger kudos to Randy Moss for keeping the issue going. The NTRA’s Alex Waldrop (and I give him a lot of credit for taking part in the discussion) suggests that the current steroid testing protocol is working, but it’s still so piecemeal that it’s not enough.

Breeding
It was interesting to hear that Team Valor’s Barry Irwin buys most of his horses overseas; Jim Squires also correctly pointed out that the sturdier lines are not the popular ones in the US. It wasn’t always the case; Broad Brush was the leading sire in the US in 1994, yet only four of his sons are standing at stud in the US today. His millionaire son, Concern, stands in Oklahoma – a long way from Kentucky. Only Include is standing in Kentucky (and at a ‘popular‘ price) ; Schossberg was sent to Chile. Maybry’s Boy is in New York, and Mongoose is in Florida. What changed in about 15 years to make a hearty stallion like Broad Brush less fashionable?

Artificial surfaces
Well done to Nick Zito for standing up for safe dirt surfaces – the fact remains that the research simply isn’t there yet to suggest it’s time to have the entire industry switch to synthetics. If and when it is, bring it on – but I don’t see the statistics that support removing a good dirt track in most cases.

Training & Racing Age
Hurray! Dr. Scott Palmer pointed out that early training is necessary to create soundness; I can’t understand why this issue is so often overlooked (or misunderstood) when there is ample research on it. Dr. Larry Bramledge tried to address the same issue, but it did not seem to be getting through as effectively to the NBC crowd (not surprisingly).

I would also suggest that the lighter schedules (both training and racing) could also be a major factor in making modern racehorses less sound — could it be that this has led to current breeding trends, rather than the other way around?

Implementation
Waldrop clearly knows his real challenge is actually getting anything done and brings up toe grabs as an example – but the fact that only four racing jurisdictions have taken the NTRA’s advice in that regard is not encouraging (especially given how abundantly clear the evidence is that they are unsafe).

Randy Moss is right – everyone needs to compromise. I’d really like to know which ‘horsemen’ told him he ‘needed a muzzle.’

The highlight of NBC’s round table was Gary Stevens for calling for a commissioner to oversee the entire sport. It’s clear that there needs to be central authority — or at least major industry bodies like the Breeders’ Cup organization laying down their own rules as a first step — ideally beginning with banning medication in any of their races, including the Win and You’re In series.

Here’s hoping for a safe Preakness…

While the impact of their injuries continues to be felt (and please do continue to follow and contribute to the discussions going on at TheRail and across the TBA), there’s still a Triple Crown season going on (although it certainly seems to be lacking in enthusiasm just now from most corners).

At this point, it seems likely that Big Brown (right) will not be facing any of his Derby competition (such as it was) again at Pimlico — only Recapturetheglory is still under consideration. One can hardly blame them, given the sorts of numbers everyone else ran — only Big Brown (109) and the ill-fated Eight Belles (102) managed a triple-digit Beyer in the Derby. That does not mean no one will show up, though – I still like Giant Moon at the Preakness distance and Harlem Rocker should be a nice addition to the field, but there’s still the feeling they are running for second.

I’m not joining the list of those who just want to hand Big Brown the Triple Crown, however — the Belmont should be interesting, and we may get a preview in the Peter Pan on Saturday. My current horse crush, Tomcito (already a winner at the Belmont distance as a 2-year-old) will be on hand, as will the highly-touted Casino Drive in what will be his second start. Normally I would worry about his lack of experience, but when all your family does is win the Belmont, you’re worth keeping an eye on. (To that end, I’ve already added his so-far-unraced 2-year-old half-brother, Man of Iron, to my Virtual Stable). Here’s hoping for a good, safe race this weekend that will provide some real competition in New York.

I also highly recommend a read of Ray Paulick’s latest column at ESPN. He addresses a few points that seem to have fallen by the wayside lately rather well…

First, the science: many studies indicate that early training and exercise not only help thoroughbreds to develop bone mass, but also stronger tendons and overall ‘better’ legs. Here are just a few studies worth reading; they don’t all agree on a particular ideal method, but they all seem to suggest that young bones need stress to build better bones:

• Exercise of young thoroughbred horses increases impact strength of the third metacarpal bone.
  Reilly GC, Currey JD, Goodship AE.
  J Orthop Res. 1997 Nov;15(6):862-8.

• The response of bone, articular cartilage and tendon to exercise in the horse
  Elwyn C Firth
  J Anat. 2006 April; 208(4): 513–526.

• Fatigue fractures in thoroughbred racehorses: Relationships with age, peak bone strain, and training
  Dr. D. M. Nunamaker, D. M. Butterweck, M. T. Provost
  J Orthop Res. 1990 July; 8(4) : 604-611.

• Fractures – A Preventable Hazard of Racing Thoroughbreds?
  C. M. Riggs
  The Veterinary Journal. 2002 January; 163(1): 19-29.

Let’s also compare how horses racing careers have changed in the US since the 1940s; obviously this is anecdotal, but comparing historical data regarding number and timing of lifetime starts could prove useful and I would be interested to see the results of a real survey of the available data:

• Whirlaway
  As a 2 year old in 1940: 16 starts: 7-2-4
  Lifetime Record: 60 starts: 32-15-9
  

• Nashua
  As a 2-year-old in 1954: 8 starts: 6-2-0
  Lifetime Record: 30 starts: 22-4-1

• Secretariat
  As a 2-year-old in 1972: 9: 7-1-0
  Lifetime Record: 21 starts: 16-3-1

• Easy Goer
  As a 2-year-old in 1988: 6: 4-2-0
  Lifetime Record: 20 starts: 14-5-1
  

• War Emblem

As a 2-year-old in 2001: 3 starts: 2-0-0
Lifetime record: 13 starts: 7-0-0

Obviously, this does not speak directly to the case of Eight Belles, who had 5 starts at 2 (and of course taking into account that horses can injure themselves under the most benign of circumstances) — that’s certainly more than a lot of the current crop of runners.

It’s also possible that today’s horse is simply not as robust as that of even 30 years ago (and with most thoroughbreds sharing 47% of their genes, that’s not surprising — the problem is perhaps most evident in the US because of the influence of Northern Dancer); if that is indeed the case, there is ample data on the equine genome to begin making more educated decisions about breeding:

However, the analysis of thoroughbred genetics is also revealing the other side of the coin, notes Matthew Binns of the Royal Veterinary College in London, UK. Many negative traits are associated with inbreeding in the diminutive gene pool, he says. “The selections we’ve made for fantastic beasts have had some detrimental consequences.”

One tenth of thoroughbreds suffer orthopaedic problems and fractures, 10% have low fertility, 5% have abnormally small hearts and the majority suffer bleeding in the lungs, says Binns. But as well as allowing breeders to select for performance-related genes, elucidating the horse genome may allow researchers to breed out negative traits, he says. “Now we have a good amount of the horse genome, there are interesting times ahead,” says Binns. “Over the next 10 years there will be some changes in this very traditional industry.”

It’s about time.

I’d eventually like to see some real oversight into who we breed and why – many other sporting breeds force their ‘approved’ stallions and mares to undergo rigorous (and repeated) quality control testing to assure that they are improving the breed, not simply making a buck at stud or auction. Clinging to the ‘live cover only’ rule seems like a quaint anachronism if other basic traditional breeding goals — like soundness or the ability to run drug-free — are an afterthought.