Zarkava and Goldikova are tied for 3-year-old filly (which seems fair), and the Horse of the Year category lets you wonder what each of these horses could have done had they not been retired: it’s down to Zarkava, Raven’s Pass, Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and New Approach. I’m awarding Zarkava about 500 bonus style points – is that enough to get her un-retired? If I back Crowded House for top 2-year-old colt will he also retire next year in a terrible recurring dream? I suppose it doesn’t pay to make predictions sleeping on an unmade bed. Even Julius Caesar and the Roman Empire couldn’t conquer the blue sky…I’ll stop now.

Moving on…

The Curlin ownership saga continues as Jess Jackson aims to purchase the outstanding 20% in a private bid; however, even that will require further litigation:

A hearing on the private-sale motion is scheduled to be heard Nov. 17, but [Special Judge Roger ] Crittenden, following some forceful discussion by various attorneys involved in the litigation, from the bench set a Dec. 1 hearing where evidence will be presented either supporting or opposing the latest effort to sell the minority interest.

“Everyone can have their say,” Crittenden said.

At least all the attorneys involved will have a chance to top up their billable hours right before the holidays; someone certainly should get a bonus out of this.

It seems we will (fingers crossed) indeed be seeing more of Zenyatta next year; she’s having a bit of a break and may not return until later in the spring, but I’ll take it.

I think it will be a good day for Aidan O’Brien (and the other foreign trainers) on balance — it would be hard to make it worse than the situation with George Washington last year — but whether that success will come in the Classic or elsewhere on the card remains to be seen.

Of course, I’m happy to offer my opinions in advance:

Marathon
1) Church Service – Solid G3 performer – might be enough to hit the board here
2) Add Heat – Local, but not a winner recently
3) Delightful Kiss – Best American hope in this race?
4) Sixties Icon – Class of the field; switch from turf the only issue
5) Muhannak – Solid European performer likes artificial surfaces
6) Zappa – Another California specialist
7) Big Booster – Distance specialist hasn’t won since April
Cedar Mountain – Son of Galileo wasn’t up to Europe’s best
9) Booyah – Versatile, but not a great record

Prediction: Muhannak, Sixties Icon, Delightful Kiss, Church Service

Turf Sprint
1) Hero’s Reward – Big step up in class
2) Fleeting Spirit – Filly has beaten tough fields in Europe
3) True to Tradition – More of a G2/G3 performer?
4) Only Answer - Another solid European filly, but probably not as big a threat
5) Salute the Count – Another class question
6) Storm Treasure – Has not won since March
7) Rouse the Cat – Not in this company
Diabolical – Recent form not great
9) Desert Code – Ditto
10) California Flag – Has never faced this level of competition
11) Idiot Proof – Unknown quantity on grass, despite success in dirt sprints
12) One Union – Last win in July
13) Get Funky – Could hit the board
14) Mr. Nightlinger – Won his last 5 races

Prediction: Fleeting Spirit, Mr. Nightlinger, Only Answer, Get Funky

Dirt Mile
1) Lewis Michael – The surface and distance may be just right for him
2) Surf Cat – Probably past his best
3) Slew’s Tizzy – Better at the G2 level?
4) Mast Track – Recent foot problems don’t inspire confidence
5) Two Step Salsa – Sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby
6) Pyro – Hitting the board lately and a recent Darley purchase
7) Albertus Maximus - Very much improved of late
Well Armed – Won here last time out, great record
9) Slew’s Tiznow – Won last time, but it was in August
10) Rebellion – Possibly better than his form suggests
11) My Pal Charlie – Super Derby winner
12) Lord Admiral – 7-year-old opts to try the new surface

Predictions: Lewis Michael, Well Armed, Lord Admiral, Albertus Maximus

Mile
1) Shakis – Always a solid effort
2) Kip Deville - Defending champ seems off his best
3) Precious Kitten – Nice filly, but this is a tough field
4) Goldikova – Has finished closer to Zarkava than anyone else on the card
5) Daytona – Usually good form a little off of late
6) Awesome Gem – If recent form holds, he’s due for another 7th-place finish
7) U S Ranger – Mile distance seems a bit of a stretch for him
Bold Chieftain – Better against California-restricted competition
9) War Monger – Last win was in January
10) Thorn Song – Could be improving at the right time
11) Whatsthescript – Effective in graded company, but inconsistent

Prediction: Goldikova, Shakis, Precious Kitten, Thorn Song

Juvenile
1) Munnings – How will he handle the surface?
2) Gallant Son – Emerald-Downs-based colt worked a bullet recently
3) Terrain – Solid record so far
4) Square Eddie – Has won in both Europe and N. America
5) Azul Leon – Disappointing last time out, but undefeated prior to that
6) Silent Valor - Fifth last time out over this surface
7) Elusive Bluff - Two wins on turf
Street Hero – Has a 3rd and a win at the G1 level
9) Mine That Bird – First effort outside Canada
10) Pioneerof the Nile – 3rd in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity
11) Midshipman – Bob Baffert’s current hope
12) Bushranger - Group 1 winner in Europe, but wide post not ideal
13) West Side Bernie – Good form thus far

Prediction: Square Eddie, Street Hero, Bushranger, Midshipman

Juvenile Turf
1) Ninth Client – May want more distance
2) City Style – Step up in class
3) Westphalia – Group 2 experience in Europe may be enough to get the job done
4) Donativum – Much improved since being gelded
5) Relatively Ready – Could well be a factor
6) Vaquero – 4th in his first G3 effort
7) Coronet of a Baron – Might prefer shorter distances
Paddy the Pro – Winner over synthetic surface in Ireland
9) Orthodox – Winner of a MSW last time out
10) Skipadate – Last two efforts have been close losses
11) Bittel Road - Very solid record at this point
12) Grand Adventure – First trip outside Canada for undefeated colt

Prediction: Westphalia, Donativum, Bittel Road, Grand Adventure

Sprint
1) Cost of Freedom – On a 3-race winning streak
2) Street Boss – Seemed a bit tired last time out
3) Fabulous Strike – Capable runner was 2nd in the Vosburgh
4) Midnight Lute – Defending champ’s last effort in August was a clunker
5) First Defence – Talented but inconsistent
6) Black Seventeen – Something of a surprise Vosburgh winner
7) In Summation – Often in the money, but has not won lately
Sing Baby Sing – Huge step up in class
9) Fatal Bullet – Seems to love synthetic surfaces

Prediction: Fabulous Strike, Street Boss, Cost of Freedom, Fatal Bullet

Turf
1) Better Talk Now – Veteran performer back for another shot
2) Red Rocks - Won this race 2 years ago, 3rd last year
3) Grand Couturier - Winner of his last 2 races, both G1s
4) Soldier of Fortune – Easy winner if he doesn’t have an Arc bump
5) Winchester – First time against elders for talented 3-year-old
6) Dancing Forever – Beautifully-bred, but may need things to go his way
7) Red Rock Canyon – Duke of Marmalade’s usual rabbit lent to Soldier of Fortune?
Spring House – Would have preferred to see underrated horse in the Marathon
9) Conduit – Something of a surprise entry, but worth watching
10) Out of Control – Solid at a mile; distance a question
11) Eagle Mountain – Mike de Kock entry could be dangerous

Prediction: Soldier of Fortune, Eagle Mountain, Conduit, Grand Couturier

Classic
1) Go Between – Pacific Classic winner likely outgunned here
2) Casino Drive – Complete question mark
3) Tiago – He’s probably better at a slightly shorter distance
4) Duke of Marmalade – If the Arc didn’t take much out, it could be his
5) Henrythenavigator – Fantastic miler. Not sure about the distance or surface.
6) Smooth Air – Not today
7) Student Council – Last win came in May
Raven’s Pass – If he likes the distance, he’ll be a threat
9) Curlin – Surface only big question for defending champ
10) Fairbanks – Might have won the Marathon
11) Colonel John – Known quantity in California
12) Champs Elysees – Unusual spot here, but could hit the board

Prediction: Curlin, Duke of Marmalade, Raven’s Pass, Colonel John

For more on the Friday races, check back here or here throughout the day.

Friday Races

Filly & Mare Sprint
Intangaroo always shows up,Indian Blessing loves this distance, Lady Sprinter represents for Argentina and Zaftig is trying to make a comeback after her last race in June.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
When in doubt, I’m going with the Aidan O’Brien entry – in this case, Heart Shaped.

Juvenile Fillies (Gr.I)
When in doubt and there’s no Ballydoyle horse, I’ll stick with Shug McGaughey with fillies – in this case, that’s Persistently. I also like Evita Argentina.

Filly & Mare Turf (Gr.I)
Wait a While is always tough here, but Halfway to Heaven has probably beaten stronger fields. Folk Opera could also turn up, but all in all, this is a tough one.

Filly & Mare Classic (Gr.I)
All Zenyatta, all the time. I think Cocoa Beach will make her work for it, though, and Carriage Trail will also be a danger.

Saturday Races

Dirt Marathon
King of Rome, Sixties Icon, Spring House. You heard it here first.

Turf Sprint
Fleeting Spirit, perhaps? (That’s working on my other ‘when in doubt’ fallback – and I really have no idea here – bet the foreign filly in turf races).

Dirt Mile
I like Lewis Michael here.

Mile (Gr.I)
I love Goldikova’s form and think she’s the one to beat.

Juvenile (Gr.I)
Square Eddie is getting all the hype – will he live up to it?

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia could pull it off.

Sprint (Gr.I)
Midnight Lute is trying to repeat, but he’s been quiet since winning last year. Fabulous Strike is in with a chance.

Turf (Gr.I) With Red Giant out and many of the toughest European contenders opting for the Classic, one has to wonder if it could someone wind up being Better Talk Now’s year (again). Having said that, it’s tough to see the old guy knocking off Soldier of Fortune or the ever-improving Grand Couturier. Perhaps it’ll be Red Rocks again?

Classic (Gr.I)
Curlin, Duke of Marmalade, Raven’s Pass and Colonel John are your picks. Henrythenavigator is a great miler, but I don’t see this distance working out well for him. True, it’s also a question for Raven’s Pass, but it still seems like a better fit for him. Champs Elysees is intriguing here, but I don’t see him beating any of the above. And as for Casino Drive – who knows?

At least we will know the post positions very shortly…

Update: Dammit, they totally ruined my Dirt Marathon box! Some post positions are up now here.

Plenty of American horses are taking advantage of cross-entries, however (until they are forced to choose next Tuesday). Awesome Gem seems overmatched in either the Classic or the Mile, but at least there’s an option; Indian Blessing has the Filly & Mare Sprint as her first choice, with the Sprint as a backup plan. Lewis Michael will choose between the Dirt Mile and the Sprint, Precious Kitten between the Filly & Mare Turf and the Mile and Pyro could contest the Classic or the Dirt Mile (which seems a better spot for him at this point). The connections of Slew’s Tizzy, Ventura and Well Armed all have decisions to make as well.

Among other slightly surprising entries are Champs Elysees in the Classic (while Bobby Frankel had suggested he might enter him, I imagined he would be cross-entered in something else too), which seems to be coming up tougher than the Turf and US Ranger in the Mile. Diabolical is set to resurface in the Turf Sprint; it’s been a while since we’ve seen him.

But there is one old reliable we can look forward to – Better Talk Now is back for his fifth shot at the Turf. Given that everyone seems to be gravitating toward the Classic this year, why not give it another go?

Raven’s Pass, who finally turned the tables on rival Henrythenavigator, is likely to go in the Mile – but like his fellow Europeans, the Classic is also on the table. And it’s not just European turf horses lining up for the Classic; Bobby Frankel has indicated that Champs Elysees may also have a crack at it. Here’s hoping this particular synthetic surface lives up to those heavy expectations.

Bill Christine suggests that Curlin’s slow first work (pictured) over said artificial surface at Santa Anita was something of theatrical first act, building momentum to a showdown with Big Brown (whose connections seem uncharacteristically quiet of late) and it seems a bit strange to think that the Classic could be Casino Drive’s third lifetime start, but it’s an unusual year. One this is for certain at this point — the above-mentioned colts’ connections are breathing a collective sigh of relief they don’t have to face Zenyatta!