Big Brown did jog over the Belmont track today (right), so one would assume his foot is not giving him much, if any, trouble; one wonders if some of the drama over his foot might be more of a Rick Dutrow mind game than anything else; it’s an obvious excuse to fall back on if things do not go to plan on Belmont day.

Other Belmont contenders were working over the weekend; Anak Nakal(!) worked a bullet at Saratoga, Denis of Cork put in five furlongs at Churchill Downs, Tale of Ekati worked at Belmont, although Barclay Tagg was apparently less than pleased with his effort and it sounds as though his plan may change. Tomcito, now recovered from his myectomy, jogged at Belmont as well.

In other news, The Tin Man is apparently doing reasonably well in retirement after a worrying time following a knee fracture, although he’s still hampered by the injury. Here’s hoping he can enjoy a healthy retirement nonetheless.

Finally, like the good people at Railbird, I was particularly intrigued by a maiden special weight over the Belmont turf last Saturday. 3-year-old Monastic Springs, the first foal for great racemare Ipi Tombe, dealt with traffic problems like an old pro — winning in his first start. I may have a new favorite 3-year-old — here is his debut race:

• Big Brown – I don’t like the hype or the feet, but there’s plenty of horse (and a blog, shared with Court Vision) to appreciate
• Colonel John – Santa Anita’s Horse of the Meet
• Court Vision – he’s either sitting on a big race or a big 14th-place finish
• Eight Belles – As long as she doesn’t scratch, I like a big grey filly
• Gayego – Makes Colonel John look very good
• Pyro – Bit of a mystery lately – perhaps intentionally?
• Smooth Air – I’m happy to keep him flying under the radar, odds-wise
• Tale of Ekati – Barclay Tagg’s last, best hope?
• Visionaire – Seems set to outrun his pedigree
• Z Humor - Quite impressive last time out

Would like to see: Tomcito, Big Truck, Denis of Cork
Would like to toss: Behindatthebar, Anak Nakal, Bob Black Jack

Kentucky Derby winning odds

Last weekend’s results were disappointing to me (and I’m fairly agnostic on the Polytrack angle in this instance), since I’d much prefer to see Tomcito in the Derby over a large group of horses whose abilities at a mile and a quarter are questionable at best (and some of those who are bred for the distance scream ‘turf’); I did enjoy the quick segment with Eight Belles (perspective notwithstanding, she’s clearly a big girl) and Proud Spell as potential Derby entries. The word at this point seems to be that both will definitely be entered, although neither seems a lock to go to the gate Derby day:

“We’re going to enter both fillies in the Oaks,” Jones said by phone from Delaware Park, where he was running horses Monday. “I’ve been told to enter Eight Belles in the Derby. If Eight Belles draws a good post in the Derby, and a crappy post in the Oaks, she’ll probably run in the Derby. If she draws a crappy post in the Derby, and a good post in the Oaks, she’ll probably run in the Oaks. I’d say it’s a 50-50 chance. I do know Mr. Porter wants to run in the Derby if she draws a good post.

“Proud Spell, if she draws a really crappy post in the Oaks, we might cross-enter her in the Derby. But I’d say that’s only 15-85.”

I’d like to see Eight Belles in the Derby, although the obvious knock on her is that she has not faced colts before. At least the defection of War Pass makes a spot available for someone else, and further dropouts could make more space for Denis of Cork, who continues to train toward the Derby despite his current low ranking on the graded earnings list; in my ideal world, a few more would exit the picture to ensure that he, Big Truck and Tomcito (who is training for the Derby, just in case) all get in the gate (which makes the Eight Belles dilemma all the more problematic).

Pyro and Z Fortune had slightly mysterious works in thick fog on Monday; naturally, that did not serve to answer any questions about Pyro’s readiness after the Blue Grass debacle. Adriano has been hard at work as well, but I still can’t get on his bandwagon, despite being a big fan of Graham Motion. Tomcito worked a bullet on Polytrack only to handle it poorly in a race (maybe?), so I’m not convinced a decent work over the Churchill Downs track can be given as much weight at a race over real dirt — and we know that didn’t work out well last time.

Speaking of synthetics, Colonel John continues to train at Santa Anita; I’m curious to see how he takes to the Churchill Downs surface next weekend.

Of course, I’ve only briefly touched on Big Brown; while his feet and lack of experience have been rehashed a number of times, perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Times article about him and his connections is the structure of majority owner IEAH — they plan to go public shortly:

Since its inception in 2003, I.E.A.H. has raised more than $40 million from more than 80 investors and has formed partnerships to own various horses. The hedge fund model will supplant this arrangement; partners will own a part of all I.E.A.H. assets, from its 80 horses in training to its 15 broodmares and its future stallions, including the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Mile champion, Kip Deville; Benny the Bull, winner of the $2 million Dubai Golden Shaheen; and Big Brown.

Each financial quarter, an independent auditor will assess the fund’s value, and investors will be able to decide to buy into the fund or sell their positions. “What we’re offering are liquidity and options that people in the horse business have never had before,” [IEAH president Michael] Iavarone said.

Considering that the IEAH team has already won over $3 million dollars this year (25% winners, 56% in the money), they must be doing something right. I look forward to seeing what sort of investment levels they set over the next year. Check back later for an updated Superfecta Derby Top Ten…

Bet on the Kentucky Derby

One could argue that perhaps Monba is peaking at the right time, but Cowboy Cal (with his affinity for grass) strikes me as a Polytrack specialist. The way this race was run was probably good practice for those already going on to the Derby, but I remain unconvinced that we saw the Derby winner in the top finishers.

Hey Byrn’s snail’s-pace victory in the Holy Bull was not much to see either; he got the job done, but I don’t see him competing with Big Brown, Colonel John or the ‘real’ Pyro. It would certainly be a nice story for his connections, but as with many of this year’s Derby hopefuls (see below), I don’t think he’s on the same level.

The Arkansas Derby turned out to be interesting after all (and not just because the runner-up again added to my Road to the Roses total); Gayego’s victory proved that the California contingent is something to be reckoned with after all (and that they can run on conventional dirt). However, I think Z Fortune was the better horse in the race — he lost a lot of ground and was going on at the end, while Gayego struck me (as Mike Smith struck him repeatedly) as a tired horse who was gamely hanging on for the win.

If the Derby field stays anything like the current top 20, there’s going to be a big traffic jam at the 1/8th pole as certain horses hit their distance limitation wall.

Here is the current top 20 in terms of graded earnings:

• War Pass – Don’t see him getting the distance
• Pyro – Should be a top contender despite the Blue Grass
• Proud Spell – Likely going to the Oaks
• Tale of Ekati – Should get the distance
• Colonel John – Has the pedigree and stats
• Gayego – Nice win, but perhaps better suited to the Preakness
• Big Brown – Just the feet, ma’am
• Z Humor – Not after the IL Derby
• Monba – I am uninspired, but you never know
• Kodiak Kowboy – Hasn’t beaten much lately
• Turf War – Should be better next year, like brother Grasshopper
• Court Vision- Has not lived up to early promise
• Z Fortune – I like sons of Siphon
• Adriano – Derby Fever casualty
• Recapturetheglory – Interesting, let’s see more
• Smooth Air – Worth a shot at a price
• Salute the Sarge – Preakness-bound?
• Cool Coal Man – Not impressed
• Anak Nakal – Has not improved enough
• Eight Belles – Legit contender, numbers-wise

On the bubble: Tomcito (#29) is much more deserving of a Derby berth than most on this list — he’s already proven at the distance. Here’s hoping he doesn’t run into any trouble in the Coolmore Lexington (or that the needed cash might magically appear in his account). Visionaire (#22) should also be in the gate come Derby day. I don’t see Denis of Cork (#25) being ready in time after the Illinois Derby debacle.

Given the opportunity, I would toss the following (some of whom are off the trail already) from the top 20: Z Humor, Kodiak Kowboy, Turf War, Court Vision, Adriano, Salute the Sarge, Cool Coal Man and Anak Nakal. That makes plenty of space for legitimate contenders (and I would love to see talented horses like Adriano and Cowboy Cal on turf or otherwise in spots that make more sense for them). I’ll formulate a new Superfecta Derby Top Ten tomorrow…

Kentucky Derby winning odds

Tomcito was working at Churchill Downs and still may or may not head to the Coolmore Lexington (since the earnings question is still that); I can understand why trainer Dante Zanelli would rather go straight to the Derby if possible, but Tomcito obviously needed his last race — I think it would be no bad thing for him in the end if he does end up in the race at Keeneland. I’m looking forward to seeing more of him, hopefully in the Derby.

The big story this weekend is the Blue Grass (or, more accurately, the Toyota Blue Grass, as we call these days). While Pyro (pictured) is the headliner (and I expect a good race from him), Visionaire is the horse I’m most intrigued by. He seems to be improving each time out and it’s nice to see Jose Lezcano get a legitimate Derby horse. Most importantly, I give many props to Michael Matz for being entirely realistic about the horse’s chances — he’s not counting him out, nor is he anointing him the second coming of Secretariat (or Barbaro, for that matter):

“What we’re really looking for is a race from where he can keep going in the same direction. It would certainly be nice to win (the Blue Grass). (But success would be) if he just has a race where he finishes well and that he can improve on that to go to the Derby.”

As the son of Grand Slam out of a French Deputy mare, Visionaire’s pedigree might suggest he’s cut out to be a miler rather than a Derby horse.

“But I think because his disposition is so good, he’s sort of outrunning his pedigree,” Matz said. “He has a very good late turn of foot, and the one thing you can’t judge is his heart. He’s a really nice horse, really competitive. Whether he’s good enough, I think there are just so many questions nobody can answer: How is your horse going to fare in a 20-horse field? How is your horse going to fare at a mile and a quarter? Not just for me, for everybody.”

Given the flare-ups over Denis of Cork and War Pass this season, tempering predictions with a little reality is no bad thing (especially given his outside post position for the Blue Grass). I’d like to see Visionaire do well since his connections have (actually) stayed classy.

Other entrants of note include Todd Pletcher’s Monba and Cowboy Cal who could make comebacks, and Cool Coal Man should not be ruled out. Barclay Tagg’s Big Truck is back too and has been working bullets – he’s obviously ready for something. Regardless of the outcome, if any of the big names fail here, they can always blame the Polytrack — it worked for Street Sense last year.

Bet on the Kentucky Derby