Superfectablog v3.0 » Circular Quay

Compare/Constrast

admin — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 17:53:00 +0000

Word is in the Pyro is off to Darley at some point in the not-too-distant future; it must be nice to have things decided so early in one’s career (although hey, at six lifetime starts, he only needs three more to equal Smarty Jones in total starts – just not as many wins) – at least he and War Pass (five lifetime starts, with his stud plans settled as a 2-year-old) both know where they will be living come retirement (in, oh, November, although in theory either could race on).

Compare that to the reaction to Sirmione winning the Australian Cup:

“But the glow of Sirmione (Encosta de Lago-World Guide) overshadowed the pall of sadness created by the Miss Finland retirement. He is only a 4-year-old, but has the Australian staying races at his mercy judging by his devastating turn of foot to win by 3 3/4 lengths, and roar his purse earnings now to more than Aus$1.6million. This was his second group I win, coincidentally achieved at the same track over the same trip.”

How many top level horses get to be 4 in US racing? Not many, that’s for certain. Circular Quay came back for a win in the New Orleans Handicap (perhaps it was down to my eating in an Australian restaurant this weekend?) after a promising but ultimately less-winning 3-year-old year than that of several of his agemates, but simply by racing as a 4-year-old, he’s become something of an anomaly for US racing – were he running in near his namesake in Oz, apparently he’d be ‘only a 4-year-old.’

Indeed, here is an article in The Age bemoaning the fact that Wonderful World’s racing career could come to an end ‘prematurely’ at 4 – (and, as it happens, it did) it seems in the US we beg for our stars to even be considered for such a campaign.

Since great minds think alike, you can find a similar perspective at Down the Stretch – why does it seem that American racehorses retire to stud so much earlier than in other countries? I would love to see some real statistics on the subject; in a cursory look around the Arrowfield stallions, only Starcraft had a particularly long career (22 starts from ages 2-5); among the European and Australian Darley contingent, Cape Cross had 19 starts from ages 2-5; Green Desert had 14, but still retired at 3. Superstar Manduro had 18 starts from 2-5 years of age.

The picture for Darley in the US is a little bleaker in terms of long racing careers of late: Street Cry raced from 2-4 with 12 starts while his son Street Sense was not far off – 10 starts from his 2 and 3-year-old years (and ditto that for Hard Spun). Comparatively older stallions like Elusive Quality and Cherokee Run made it into the 20+ starts club, but few racing after the early to mid-’90s have anything like that sort of race record.

Of course, we know that success on the track and success in the shed don’t necessarily go hand-in-hand; indeed, Hussonet was not much to see on the track and was sent to Chile (where he was a monster at stud) before finding even more breeding success in Australia – he’s now the sire of 24 G1 winners and will be meeting Miss Finland (bowing out at 4 after a ‘competitive’ if not world-beating 4-year-old year after her Australia Cup loss) come breeding season.

I can’t fault the stud farms for wanting to get in while they still can (nor the owners for seeing dollar signs and cashing in), but I certainly can blame them for not allowing their purchases to show what they are really worth; one wonders if fear of injury is as much the motivating factor that fear of poor racing performance over the long term might be.

At least Curlin (4) is following Miss Andretti’s (6) example (so far) and staying in training– we’ll see both back in action on March 29th, albeit on different stages.

Finally, thanks to Barry Irwin of Team Valor for adding his support to our Take Back The Race campaign — we appreciate your voice!

Whither Randy Moss?

admin — Thu, 06 Mar 2008 19:30:00 +0000

Pity poor John Servis – he had a brush with possible greatness (or at least Very Goodness) with Smarty Jones, had a rough ride with Rockport Harbor and lost Hard Spun to Larry Jones after picking him out for Rick Porter. Now he has a truly thankless task ahead of him – he must attempt to get Coat the Cubes, a half-sister to The Green Monkey, to the winner’s circle. To be fair, she’s at least done more than her hapless sibling, but can someone send some decent horses in Servis’ direction?

We’ll get to the exciting Derby trail races shortly, but we should not overlook a great day of racing all around on Saturday – Indian Blessing is taking on Proud Spell again at the Fair Grounds and Grasshopper meets my perpetual crush Brass Hat in the New Orleans Handicap in a field that includes Magna Graduate and Circular Quay.

But on to the Derby Trail — Giant Moon finally takes on something of a higher-quality field in the Gotham, but all eyes will be on the Louisiana Derby: Pyro is deservedly the favorite, but I am most looking forward to seeing Tale of Ekati (right, in a particularly lovely Barbara Livingston photograph) and Majestic Warrior making their 2008 debuts. If they live up to the promise they showed briefly last year, we should have quite a race.

In case you were wondering why Monba didn’t fire in the Fountain of Youth, apparently he cut his foot and ‘pulled a gluteal muscle‘ – given the record The Green Monkey had with that particular ailment, one wonders if it is somehow contagious in the Pletcher barn…

But before we go, one question for the NTRA — where has ‘Stretch Drive’ gone? I need my Randy Moss fix, and I’m getting nothing. It’s not even listed on the NTRA podcast page any more. Here’s a tip: a recording of a ‘weekly teleconference’ doesn’t get to be called a podcast — that’s just listening to someone stuck at their desk. Given the fact that most of these races aren’t even on non-HRTV/TVG television, a weekly podcast is really scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as providing content. Can someone just hand the man a webcam?

A Zed & Two Noughts

admin — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 15:09:00 +0000

There’s plenty of action on the Derby trail this weekend; Z Humor (right) is the big name in the Sam F. Davis and the Southwest is almost a weekend race (for those who actually have the day off) featuring the much-hyped Denis of Cork. Cowboy Cal is sticking to turf for the time being in the Hallandale Beach Stakes (which means no points in Road to the Roses, although I have him active ‘just in case’ they decide to retroactively count the race or something else equally improbable happens), but he’s an interesting one to watch.

Beyer weighed in on whether or not Pyro’s win in the Risen Star was the real deal (given the low figure, but ludicrously-fast final quarter — see Randy Moss for more on that); I’m still not convinced he’s a mile-and-a-quarter horse, but we’ll see.

There are some older horses at work as well; Circular Quay makes his 4-year-old debut in the San Carlos against the tough Greg’s Gold and Surf Cat, who is looking for a repeat win in the race.

It was nice to see that Blood-Horse editor Dan Liebman and I were on the same page regarding the decision to give Santa Anita two Breeders’ Cups in a row, almost by default, since no one else really stepped up to the table. It’s a shame that Churchill Downs (or, really, any other track capable of hosting) couldn’t work out a deal with the Breeders’ Cup powers that be, since in my view sticking with Santa Anita (or any single track two years in a row) makes the event ever more provincial and uninteresting to top international competition. Given the well-known problems with the synthetic surface, why would someone in Europe bother shipping their best horses to run over what will still be a relatively unproven surface?

There is also something of a collective annual amnesia in California about what happens to the weather in the fall and winter — specifically that water tends to come from the sky, and quite often too. As a former California resident, I looked forward to this with dread since everyone would panic and forget how to drive, causing even more traffic chaos than usual. Given what a pain flying is now, I can’t really justify flying anywhere for a Breeders’ Cup — I’d happily fly to Dubai, Australia, Japan or various places in Europe to watch racing, given the higher caliber of international competitors big race meets get in those places and there’s more to do in terms of interesting travel; it’s simply not worth flying to a state I’ve spent too much time commuting through. Frankly, I’d rather they held the Breeders’ Cup at Emerald Downs, since I’d much prefer to visit Seattle again (cheaper, better food and beer, much more to do — I even prefer the weather). Looks like I’ll have to wait for them to bring it back to the right coast again…

But hey, they are still hoping War Emblem gets his head into the whole breeding thing this year! We can all dream.

Preakness Preparations

admin — Wed, 16 May 2007 16:14:00 +0000

The Washington Post is certainly gearing up for the Preakness; Todd Pletcher’s inability to win a Triple Crown race is analyzed (and “a horse racing blogger” is quoted in the article for good measure — nice to see we’re being noticed) and indeed, analysis seems to be on Pletcher’s mind:

“I don’t second-guess; I try to analyze something I can correct,” Pletcher said. “Once we bring the best horse there, we’re going to get it done. Until then, we’ll get criticized. It’s part of the deal.”

While I think that the majority of the time the best horse does win the race, I’m curious to know what sort of changes Pletcher might make going forward; he may not have had the best horse this time around, but even in hindsight it’s hard to say that Circular Quay was not among the best horses — just perhaps not the best prepared on the day.

Hard Spun also gets a close-up in the paper today; while I appreciate hearing about his pleasant personality, painting him as a sort of ‘aw-shucks’ underdog is a bit disingenuous — he’s still the best-bred horse in the race and looks the part. (Rumors that he’d changed hands have been quashed).

Curlin has been a bit left out of the Preakness discussion for no good reason lately; he seems to be preparing just as nicely as the two horses who finished in front of him.

And as for Street Sense (or Big Daddy Rabbit, if you prefer — getting a bath with the help of his attorney hotwalker in the photo above) — the discussion as to whether his affinity for Churchill Downs will hinder him in the Preakness seems pointless to Calvin Borel:

“It’s a racetrack. It’s round.”

Indeed.

Sensible Workouts

admin — Tue, 15 May 2007 18:19:00 +0000

Street Sense had a fast workout today and it seems all systems are go. The Blood-Horse questions the perceived detrimental effects of fast workouts and ‘harder’ training techniques in light of Street Sense’s victory with a solid 2-year-old foundation and Hard Spun’s bullet work setting him up nicely for second — compared with the rest of the mostly lightly-raced field (Teuflesberg being the exception, naturally).

Indeed, many scientific studies show that when horses train harder during their 2-year-old year, they tend to develop stronger, harder bone as a consequence (just look though PubMed for many examples of this), although it is clear that the surface plays a role as well. Finding the balance between working ‘too hard’ and potentially leading to injury and ‘not hard enough’ is not an easy task. It would be interesting to see a real comparison of historical data against modern trends to see if it is possible to pinpoint that equilibrium.

But back to the Preakness — not to be outdone by Street Sense, Hard Spun may breeze tomorrow before shipping to Pimlico. Said trainer Larry Jones:

“None of the media has criticized me since the Derby, so I’m getting worried,” Jones said. “Everyone criticized us when we pulled out of the [Toyota] Blue Grass [Stakes (G1)] and talked about skipping the Derby. Then no one liked our one-mile work on Polytrack … then we worked him too fast before the Derby. I’m starting to get the heebie-jeebies that no one’s criticized me.”

It’s also possible that Larry Jones is simply employing some Jedi mind tricks here — at least that’s Beyer’s suggestion, if not his terminology.

Steve Haskin weighs in on the addition of Circular Quay to the field — I also like him a lot and think he’ll be an interesting addition to the mix, although I wasn’t bowled over by his workout this week — but it can be easy to give too much weight to what is essentially just stretching his legs at this point. He obviously needed his last race, so perhaps he’s trying to tell Pletcher that he wants to run more often. I would certainly be in favor of seeing a talented horse run more than three times a year.

Derby 2007: On the Record

admin — Fri, 04 May 2007 19:17:00 +0000

Finally, I’ve made some actual decisions about the Derby (with full notes on the complete field here):

Total investment: $27
How: $21 in advance wagering, $6 in future wagers
Selections: A bunch of exacta boxes featuring various combinations of Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Circular Quay^*, Great Hunter and Hard Spun
Future wager picks: Great Hunter, Teuflesburg (and check out his feature article in the NY Times), All Others (and I think another one I’m forgetting)
And in the interest of nominative determinism for this blog, a single $1 superfecta: Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Circular Quay

So I’m officially picking Nobiz Like Shobiz to win, but of course I have a lot of respect for the others listed above and I would not be at all surprised to see any of that group switch places. You’ll note the absence of Curlin in my picks (although I did have to do one Chalky McChalk Chalk exacta box featuring Curlin and Street Sense for Mr. Superfecta); if he proves to be the freak some think he is, I’m perfectly happy to lose out — whereas if it rains, I don’t see him hitting the board at all.

On the Derby undercard, you have to like Ah Day in the Churchill Downs stakes, and I’m going for Magnificent Song in the Churchill Distaff Mile. The La Troienne looks like it’s all Appealing Zophie; it’s going to get very interesting in the Humana Distaff. Pussycat Doll, Bushfire and Wildcat Bettie B are all tough fillies; I may go for Wildcat Bettie B since she’s been training well with Hard Spun lately. Perhaps the race I am most looking forward to (apart from the obvious one) is the Woodford Reserve — Better Talk Now is back! (We’re friends on MySpace, you know). He and Shake the Bank will be facing off against a tough field, featuring Icy Atlantic, Milk It Mick, Go Between and Einstein, but I’d love to see him pull off a win here. Then there are some nice three-year-olds in the tenth race…

^*I’m ignoring my iPod’s bad track record in picking winners — it keeps playing Aussie pop today (mostly The Lucksmiths) so it’s clearly in a Circular Quay mood. I can go with that if Nobiz Like Shobiz has an off day.