We’re only one day away from the Kentucky Oaks – and from Rachel Alexandra returning once more to the scene of her former triumph. One hopes that what little mainstream-ish television coverage there is will replay her historic victory in last year’s Oaks, but [...]]]>

Will Rachel Alexandra be the star of Oaks day again?

We’re only one day away from the Kentucky Oaks – and from Rachel Alexandra returning once more to the scene of her former triumph. One hopes that what little mainstream-ish television coverage there is will replay her historic victory in last year’s Oaks, but for the rest of us, we’ll have to watch her run in the La Troienne on some sort of choppy video from work (or TiVoed on one of the racing channels). She’s back to looking like her old self, as some of the talented photographers on site at Churchill Downs can attest, and it should be great to see her back.

Of course, there’s more going on in between the La Troienne and the Oaks – here is a rundown of the stakes races on Friday:

La Troienne Stakes – 1.26 pm

1. Be Fair / T J Thompson / 118 / D W Lukas
2. Morena / J Lezcano / 118 / M R Matz
3. Zardana / D R Flores / 120 / J A Shirreffs
4. Rachel Alexandra / C H Borel / 124 / S M Asmussen
5. Unrivaled Belle / K J Desormeaux / 120 / W I Mott
6. Distinctive Dixie / J R Leparoux / 118 / W A Dollase

While I look forward to seeing a nearly-fully-fit Rachel Alexandra turn the tables on Zardana, I also hope the Brazilian-bred mare puts in a good effort; I believe she is more talented than some might believe. I may need to use this race to bulk up my Twin Spires account before things kick off in earnest.

Kentucky Juvenile Stakes – 2.10 pm

1. Saturday Dance / J Graham / 118 / L W Demeritte
2. Lou Brissie / J R Velazquez / 120 /  N J Howard
3. Wetzel / R Bejarano / 120 / R E Dutrow, Jr.
4. Weekend Wildcat/ V Lebron / 118 / W Demeritte
5. Boys At Tosconova/ K J Desormeaux / 118 / R B Hess, Jr.
6. Final Mesa (f)  / J Rosario / 117 / W A Ward
7. Nina Fever (f)  / R Albarado / 117 /  W A Ward
8. The Freak / A Jimenez / 118 / W R Helmbrecht
9. Twelve Pack Shelly (f) / H Vega / 117 / J E Salzman

They’re only 2-year-olds, it’s a mix of colts and fillies, and there isn’t much to go on yet. Wesley Ward went 1-2 with his fillies last year, then took one to Royal Ascot for a big win. With that in mine, I’ll be keeping an eye on his filly, Nina Fever, but I suspect that Wetzel will win.

Churchill Downs Turf Sprint – 3.04 pm

1. Moralist /  B Meier / 118 / T Domenosky
2. Perfect Officer / K J Desormeaux / 118 / Weaver
3. Chamberlain Bridge /  J Theriot / 118 / W B Calhoun
4. Heavenly Chorus/  S Bridgmohan / 118 / S M Asmussen
5. Mitigation / A Garcia / 118 /  M J Maker
6. Silver Timber / J R Leparoux / 124 /  C C Brown
7. Starfish Bay / J R Velazquez / 116 / T A Pletcher
8. Barge / G K Gomez / 118 /  T A Pletcher
9. Formidable /  J Lezcano / 118 / H A Jerkens
10. Central City / R Albarado / 118 / R W Werner
11. Lit’sgoodlookngray / J Talamo / 118 / R B Hess, Jr.

Chamberlain Bridge won this race last year, and is looking to defend his title. I like both Silver Timber and Starfish Bay, but think Silver Timber may have the edge.

Alysheba Stakes – 3.54 pm

1. Chocolate Candy / R Bejarano / 118 /J Hollendorfer
2. Friesan Fire /  S Bridgmohan / 118 /  S M Asmussen
3. Macho Again / R Albarado / 118 /  D Stewart
4. Cool Coal Man / J Lezcano / 118 / N P Zito
5. Prom Shoes /  C H Borel / 118 /  W H Fires
6. Bullsbay / J Rose / 118 / H G Motion
7. Arson Squad / P Lopez / 122 / R E Dutrow, Jr.
8. Flying Private /  T J Thompson / 118 /  D W Lukas
9. Enriched /  J Rosario / 118 /  D F O’Neill

It’s old home week for many in this field - Chocolate Candy, Friesan Fire and Flying Private all contested last year’s Derby, Cool Coal Man tried the year before, and Macho Again, Arson Squad, Prom Shoes and Bullsbay have raced here before in fairly major races. Bullsbay is aiming to defend his Alysheba title, and I’m picking him to repeat, although I expect good races from most of the field, especially Friesan Fire, Macho Again, Arson Squad and Chocolate Candy.  That cleared that up, right?

American Turf Stakes – 4.47 pm

1. Setsuko / R Bejarano / 117 / R E Mandella
2. Alfarabi / C S Nakatani / 117 / E G Harty
3. Guys Reward / J Lezcano / 117 / D L Romans
4. Lost Aptitude/ K J Desormeaux / 119 / D L Romans
5. Strike the Tiger / J R Velazquez / 117 / W A Ward
6. Doubles Partner / G K Gomez / 117 /T A Pletcher
7. Asphalt / J R Leparoux / 117 / E Kenneally
8. Saint Eligius /  A Garcia / 117 / K P McLaughlin
9. Gleam of Hope / R Albarado / 119 / A L Reinstedler
10. Make Music for Me / J Rosario / 117 / A Barba
11. Workin for Hops / B J Hernandez, Jr. / 117/ M Stidham

Make Music for Me made the Derby field, but Setsuko did not, so he’s sticking to this race. I’m not entirely convinced by him, however, and as I grow hops in my back yard (some Cascades, Willamette, Centennial and Fuggles, if you were wondering), how can I not pick a horse like Workin for Hops, who also happens to have two wins on turf? I also like Asphalt, though, and Saint Eligius (even if his name puts the St. Elsewhere theme music forever in my head). However, Strike the Tiger was another of Wesley Ward’s winners at Royal Ascot last year – and I like his odds.  While I was initially going with Asphalt, I’ve switched my loyalties to Strike the Tiger.

Kentucky Oaks – 5.45 PM

1. It’s Tea Time / A Garcia / 121 / G R Arnold, II
2. Jody Slew / M Mena / 121 / W B Calhoun
3. Quiet Temper / R Albarado / 121 /  D L Romans
4. Age of Humor/ R Maragh / 121 / M J Maker
5. Blind Luck / R Bejarano / 121 / J Hollendorfer
6. Beautician/ A O Solis / 121 / K G McPeek
7. Crisp/ J Rosario / 121 / J W Sadler
8. Tidal Pool / C H Borel / 121 / D W Lukas
9. Bella Diamante / M E Smith / 121 / A Milligan
10. Champagne d’Oro /  M Garcia / 121 / E J Guillot
11. Evening Jewel / K J Desormeaux / 121 / J M Cassidy
12. Ailalea / J R Velazquez / 121 / T A Pletcher
13. Amen Hallelujah / J R Leparoux / 121 / R E Dutrow, Jr.
14. Joanie’s Catch / P Lopez / 121 / B R Rose

Finally, the big race – hopefully I’ll actually be home in time to watch it. I’ve really liked Blind Luck all along, and am picking her to win. But it’s a big field, and there is considerable talent in the form of Amen Hallelujah and Crisp. Beautician is my long-ish shot, although I expect her odds may drift down before the race – but I’m backing Blind Luck all the way.

Here’s hoping for a safe and exciting Kentucky Oaks day – welcome back, Rachel Alexandra!  Check out more Oaks action and history over at Hello Race Fans, follow us on Twitter (@superfecta), and come back tomorrow for our annual dubious Derby picks.

1 Mastercraftsman (IRE), Aiden P. O’Brien, J. Murtagh, 6/5Class of the field, no question (pictured).

2 Furthest Land, Michael J. Maker, J. Leparoux, 20-1Won Kentucky Cup Classic last time, but he’s not beaten much.

3 Midshipman, Saeed Bin Suroor, G. Gomez, 6-1Only blemish is a second in last year’s Norfolk Stakes; second [...]]]> #, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, ML odds

1 Mastercraftsman (IRE), Aiden P. O’Brien, J. Murtagh, 6/5
Class of the field, no question (pictured).

2 Furthest Land, Michael J. Maker, J. Leparoux, 20-1
Won Kentucky Cup Classic last time, but he’s not beaten much.

3 Midshipman, Saeed Bin Suroor, G. Gomez, 6-1
Only blemish is a second in last year’s Norfolk Stakes; second start off a long layoff.

4 Bullsbay, H. Graham Motion, J. Rose, 3-1
His third behind Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward is closer than most horses can claim to have come.

5 Neko Bay, John Shirreffs, M. Smith, 20-1
Always first or second at Santa Anita, but against lesser opponents.

6 Mambo Meister, Philip A. Gleaves, M. Cruz, 30-1
Has a win last time out; seems more of a G3 performer.

7 Pyro, Saeed Bin Suroor, J. Velazquez, 10-1
Didn’t do much in this race last year, but has done well since returning to the races late this summer.

8 Mr. Sidney, William Mott, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
Well-bred underachiever could use a win, but has faced some quality competition.

9 Chocolate Candy, Jerry Hollendorfer, J. Rosario, 15-1
Has been earning his keep the hard way, but has more talent than that might indicate.

10 Ready’s Echo, Todd Pletcher, C. Borel, 20-1
Remember how he dead-heated for third in the Belmont behind Da’Tara? No? Still winless.

Picks: Mastercraftsman, Bullsbay, Midshipman, Pyro; longshot: Chocolate Candy

Things New Yorkish/CanadianIs Dublin a lock in the Champagne? Recall that Vineyard Haven and Munnings were 1-2 last year – is it becoming a prep for future sprinting success?

Should we be paying more attention to the Canadian 2-year-olds?

Things CalifornianWill Spring [...]]]> Yes, it’s another Friday with too much going on – time for some quick hits!

Things New Yorkish/Canadian
Is Dublin a lock in the Champagne? Recall that Vineyard Haven and Munnings were 1-2 last year – is it becoming a prep for future sprinting success?

Should we be paying more attention to the Canadian 2-year-olds?

Things Californian
Will Spring House surprise Presious Passion in the Clement L Hirsch, or will Artiste Royal repeat?

Mine That Bird gets Calvin Borel back in the Goodwood, but faces a tough field – Chocolate Candy and British newcomer Gitano Hernando are the only other 3-year-olds taking on some quality older horses. Colonel John almost always shows up, but it would also be nice to see Tiago overcome his recent bad luck. As for shock Pacific Classic winner Richard’s Kid – who really knows?

Finally, of course, there is Zenyatta in the Lady’s Secret – will it be lucky 13 for her? She hasn’t faced much this year, but Cocoa Beach could make her work for it; Anabaa’s Creation got quite close last time out – it should be great fun to see what happens.

1 / Chocolate Candy / G. Gomez / J. Hollendorfer / 10-1I’ve been excited about Chocolate Candy for a while, and [...]]]> Yesterday we took a look at the Belmont undercard, so today, it’s time for the main event.

1 / Chocolate Candy / G. Gomez / J. Hollendorfer / 10-1
I’ve been excited about Chocolate Candy for a while, and I love that he’s getting Garrett Gomez. His fifth-place finish in the Derby was respectable, given the way that race was run, and of course his California record is not bad at all. Definitely one I’ll be watching, even though I haven’t gone back and re-jigged his West Coast Beyers as per the new synthetic formula.

2 / Dunkirk / J. Velazquez / T. Pletcher / 4-1
I did not like him in the Derby based on his lack of preparation, but for a horse making his fourth lifetime start, he actually ran pretty well, given what a terrible trip he had. I’m not usually a fan of Derby excuses, but he certainly had some legitimate ones. I don’t think he’ll win, but I do think he will be a factor.

3 / Mr. Hot Stuff / E. Prado / E. Harty / 15-1
While I like that he’s by Tiznow (and really like his dam’s pedigree) and I’m a fan of Eoin Harty, he doesn’t seem quite fast enough – he’s never won a stakes race.

4 / Summer Bird / K. Desormeaux / T. Ice / 12-1
Before the Derby, I wrote him off as being more of a Belmont horse – and while he’s got a great pedigree for this race, I was really put off by the jockey change from Joe Talamo to Kent Desormeaux. The Sheets folks love this horse, but his Beyers haven’t been spectacular. Feel free to pick your formula.

5 / Luv Gov / M. Mena / D. W. Lukas / 20-1
While it’s true a horse from Marylou Whitney’s stable has sprung the Belmont upset before, Birdstone had a much stronger resume coming into the race. He does seem to be improving, but it’s hard not to be with only a maiden win.

6 / Charitable Man / A. Garcia / K. McLaughlin / 3-1
His win over the Belmont track in the Peter Pan and his Belmont-winning sire are making him a popular choice; he’s still pretty lightly-raced, but he does have the services of Alan Garcia and clearly likes the track. Again, though, his Beyers are not that exciting and I wonder about the distance for him based on how much encouragement he needed in the Peter Pan.

7 / Mine That Bird / C. Borel / C. Woolley / 2-1
If you had informed me on May 1st that a little over a month later I’d be cheering for a little Birdstone gelding who had prepped in Canada and New Mexico, I would have assumed you were working on some sort of horse racing alternate universe parody. Yet here we are – and if you compare Early Period Bob Baffert to Chip Woolley’s position now, it’s not wildly dissimilar – have a look at this article from 1996 which speaks of Baffert training ‘…blue-light specials from K-mart’ to great success while D. Wayne Lukas had the best-bred horses handed to him.

But back to the horse himself – some have knocked his running style as not the best for the Belmont – yet that single move from near the back of the pack is exactly how his sire, Birdstone, won the race. The other caution, Calvin Borel’s lack of experience at Belmont, seems a more legitimate concern – but if he’s guaranteeing victory, hey, why not?

8 / Flying Private / J. Leparoux / D. W. Lukas / 12-1
I was actually somewhat impressed by his Preakness finish – but I don’t know that he’s going to improve off of that. His biggest asset, in my opinion, is having Julien Leparoux aboard – he’s going to be a busy man on Saturday.

9 / Miner’s Escape / J. Lezcano / N. Zito / 15-1
Zito-trained winner of the Federico Tesio has a really interesting pedigree (he’s by Mineshaft, his dam is by Broad Brush) but his resume is rather thin otherwise (and his Beyers are low). But if we’re working on the ‘bet a Zito longshot in the Belmont’ principle, he’s the one I would go with.

10 / Brave Victory / R. Maragh / N. Zito / 15-1
He was third in the Peter Pan, so at least he knows this track – but again, he was third in the Peter Pan. That will look a lot more impressive if Charitable Man wins, but he seems the weaker of the two Zito longshots.

Bring on the Calvin Crown! If I’m being forced to bet a dime superfecta, here it goes: Mine That Bird, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, Miner’s Escape.

I’ll be Twittering (@superfecta) and live-blogging all afternoon from Belmont – feel free to follow along!

If it stays wet, I’ll also put something on Dunkirk. Hmm…

Quite a surprising start to Derby morning so [...]]]> I’m now going for Friesan Fire/Papa Clem/Chocolate Candy/General Quarters in my boxed superfecta (although I am not loving the prices on FF/GQ). If Pioneerof the Nile stays at good odds, he’ll get a little support too.

If it stays wet, I’ll also put something on Dunkirk. Hmm…

Quite a surprising start to Derby morning so far!

I am sorry that we won’t get to see Joe Talamo ride in his first Derby this year – but if there’s another young jockey who deserves a great chance to win, it’s Gabriel Saez.

Update: I’m heading off for a Derby party shortly (and will be playing with some newborn foals there – perhaps one of them will make the field in 2012), but am also considering a small wager on the Dubai horses and perhaps Musket Man. I may or may not have Twitter access (I’m @superfecta, if you’re not already following me), but if all goes well, I hope to have at least a few comments there.

Have a great Derby day!