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Kentucky Oaks Day 2010 – On The Record

admin — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 14:45:44 +0000

Will Rachel Alexandra be the star of Oaks day again?

We’re only one day away from the Kentucky Oaks – and from Rachel Alexandra returning once more to the scene of her former triumph. One hopes that what little mainstream-ish television coverage there is will replay her historic victory in last year’s Oaks, but for the rest of us, we’ll have to watch her run in the La Troienne on some sort of choppy video from work (or TiVoed on one of the racing channels). She’s back to looking like her old self, as some of the talented photographers on site at Churchill Downs can attest, and it should be great to see her back.

Of course, there’s more going on in between the La Troienne and the Oaks – here is a rundown of the stakes races on Friday:

La Troienne Stakes – 1.26 pm

Be Fair / T J Thompson / 118 / D W Lukas
Morena / J Lezcano / 118 / M R Matz
Zardana / D R Flores / 120 / J A Shirreffs
Rachel Alexandra / C H Borel / 124 / S M Asmussen
Unrivaled Belle / K J Desormeaux / 120 / W I Mott
Distinctive Dixie / J R Leparoux / 118 / W A Dollase

While I look forward to seeing a nearly-fully-fit Rachel Alexandra turn the tables on Zardana, I also hope the Brazilian-bred mare puts in a good effort; I believe she is more talented than some might believe. I may need to use this race to bulk up my Twin Spires account before things kick off in earnest.

Kentucky Juvenile Stakes – 2.10 pm

Saturday Dance / J Graham / 118 / L W Demeritte
Lou Brissie / J R Velazquez / 120 / N J Howard
Wetzel / R Bejarano / 120 / R E Dutrow, Jr.
Weekend Wildcat/ V Lebron / 118 / W Demeritte
Boys At Tosconova/ K J Desormeaux / 118 / R B Hess, Jr.
Final Mesa (f) / J Rosario / 117 / W A Ward
Nina Fever (f) / R Albarado / 117 / W A Ward
The Freak / A Jimenez / 118 / W R Helmbrecht
Twelve Pack Shelly (f) / H Vega / 117 / J E Salzman

They’re only 2-year-olds, it’s a mix of colts and fillies, and there isn’t much to go on yet. Wesley Ward went 1-2 with his fillies last year, then took one to Royal Ascot for a big win. With that in mine, I’ll be keeping an eye on his filly, Nina Fever, but I suspect that Wetzel will win.

Churchill Downs Turf Sprint – 3.04 pm

Moralist / B Meier / 118 / T Domenosky
Perfect Officer / K J Desormeaux / 118 / Weaver
Chamberlain Bridge / J Theriot / 118 / W B Calhoun
Heavenly Chorus/ S Bridgmohan / 118 / S M Asmussen
Mitigation / A Garcia / 118 / M J Maker
Silver Timber / J R Leparoux / 124 / C C Brown
Starfish Bay / J R Velazquez / 116 / T A Pletcher
Barge / G K Gomez / 118 / T A Pletcher
Formidable / J Lezcano / 118 / H A Jerkens
Central City / R Albarado / 118 / R W Werner
Lit’sgoodlookngray / J Talamo / 118 / R B Hess, Jr.

Chamberlain Bridge won this race last year, and is looking to defend his title. I like both Silver Timber and Starfish Bay, but think Silver Timber may have the edge.

Alysheba Stakes – 3.54 pm

Chocolate Candy / R Bejarano / 118 /J Hollendorfer
Friesan Fire / S Bridgmohan / 118 / S M Asmussen
Macho Again / R Albarado / 118 / D Stewart
Cool Coal Man / J Lezcano / 118 / N P Zito
Prom Shoes / C H Borel / 118 / W H Fires
Bullsbay / J Rose / 118 / H G Motion
Arson Squad / P Lopez / 122 / R E Dutrow, Jr.
Flying Private / T J Thompson / 118 / D W Lukas
Enriched / J Rosario / 118 / D F O’Neill

It’s old home week for many in this field - Chocolate Candy, Friesan Fire and Flying Private all contested last year’s Derby, Cool Coal Man tried the year before, and Macho Again, Arson Squad, Prom Shoes and Bullsbay have raced here before in fairly major races. Bullsbay is aiming to defend his Alysheba title, and I’m picking him to repeat, although I expect good races from most of the field, especially Friesan Fire, Macho Again, Arson Squad and Chocolate Candy. That cleared that up, right?

American Turf Stakes – 4.47 pm

Setsuko / R Bejarano / 117 / R E Mandella
Alfarabi / C S Nakatani / 117 / E G Harty
Guys Reward / J Lezcano / 117 / D L Romans
Lost Aptitude/ K J Desormeaux / 119 / D L Romans
Strike the Tiger / J R Velazquez / 117 / W A Ward
Doubles Partner / G K Gomez / 117 /T A Pletcher
Asphalt / J R Leparoux / 117 / E Kenneally
Saint Eligius / A Garcia / 117 / K P McLaughlin
Gleam of Hope / R Albarado / 119 / A L Reinstedler
Make Music for Me / J Rosario / 117 / A Barba
Workin for Hops / B J Hernandez, Jr. / 117/ M Stidham

Make Music for Me made the Derby field, but Setsuko did not, so he’s sticking to this race. I’m not entirely convinced by him, however, and as I grow hops in my back yard (some Cascades, Willamette, Centennial and Fuggles, if you were wondering), how can I not pick a horse like Workin for Hops, who also happens to have two wins on turf? I also like Asphalt, though, and Saint Eligius (even if his name puts the St. Elsewhere theme music forever in my head). However, Strike the Tiger was another of Wesley Ward’s winners at Royal Ascot last year – and I like his odds. While I was initially going with Asphalt, I’ve switched my loyalties to Strike the Tiger.

Kentucky Oaks – 5.45 PM

It’s Tea Time / A Garcia / 121 / G R Arnold, II
Jody Slew / M Mena / 121 / W B Calhoun
Quiet Temper / R Albarado / 121 / D L Romans
Age of Humor/ R Maragh / 121 / M J Maker
Blind Luck / R Bejarano / 121 / J Hollendorfer
Beautician/ A O Solis / 121 / K G McPeek
Crisp/ J Rosario / 121 / J W Sadler
Tidal Pool / C H Borel / 121 / D W Lukas
Bella Diamante / M E Smith / 121 / A Milligan
Champagne d’Oro / M Garcia / 121 / E J Guillot
Evening Jewel / K J Desormeaux / 121 / J M Cassidy
Ailalea / J R Velazquez / 121 / T A Pletcher
Amen Hallelujah / J R Leparoux / 121 / R E Dutrow, Jr.
Joanie’s Catch / P Lopez / 121 / B R Rose

Finally, the big race – hopefully I’ll actually be home in time to watch it. I’ve really liked Blind Luck all along, and am picking her to win. But it’s a big field, and there is considerable talent in the form of Amen Hallelujah and Crisp. Beautician is my long-ish shot, although I expect her odds may drift down before the race – but I’m backing Blind Luck all the way.

Here’s hoping for a safe and exciting Kentucky Oaks day – welcome back, Rachel Alexandra! Check out more Oaks action and history over at Hello Race Fans, follow us on Twitter (@superfecta), and come back tomorrow for our annual dubious Derby picks.

In Which Devil May Care = Babylon 5

admin — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 18:22:21 +0000

Todd Pletcher's last, best hope

After the frenzied game of musical chairs over the weekend, we now have a reasonably good sense of who is actually going in the Derby – and it’s certainly not Eskendereya or Rule (who, quite sensibly, now seems pointed for the Preakness). While it’s not clear whether the front wraps he wore in his Wood victory were a hint that something was slightly amiss, he will be missed – but in some ways, his defection makes the potential race more interesting – and certainly more wide-open. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious successor to take on the favorite mantle, but here are a few more Derby starters on whom I’ll be keeping a particularly close eye:

Noble’s Promise
I liked his finish in the Rebel, and he has had more than his share of poor luck this season; he could be due for a big race.

Sidney’s Candy
While I wish he had a good dirt prep on his resume, he seems more likely to make the transition more easily than many. But it’s nice to see Joe Talamo have a horse with a real shot, after the I Want Revenge situation last year.

Awesome Act
Another victim of bad luck in the past, we know he likes the mud – and he’s worth watching.

Devil May Care
Now we know she’s definitely in the Derby – and she deserves her spot (which is more than I can say for some of the colts we’ll likely be seeing – whether you agree with Beyer’s entire column or not, I think he’s right on with the notion that the earnings have become some sort of automatic Derby ticket, deserved or otherwise). And hey, she has namesakes in both a Jamie Cullum CD and a James Bond novel (albeit one by Sebastian Faulks). John Velazquez gets the mount.

Of course, we already have the field for the Oaks, and Blind Luck is the favorite. We’ll go more in-depth with the Oaks tomorrow (as well as commenting on the Derby draw), but Amen Hallelujah and Crisp are my other two (rather chalky) picks.
And the Oaks undercard is going to have one very special guest: Rachel Alexandra is running in the La Troienne. She’s back to her normal (for which read ‘rather spectacular’) work pattern, so hopefully we’ll see her turn the tables on Zardana – although I’m equally fine giving her another race to get back into her true form.

In the meantime, check out Hello Race Fans and The Rail for more, as there is plenty of quality racing-related writing on tap this week – and remember to tune in to Alex Brown’s radio show on Thursday, where I’ll be handing out some dubious Derby and Oaks wagering advice.

I leave you (until tomorrow!) with this thought: can Pletcher get another last-place finisher with Mission Impazible?

Edging Closer to the Derby

admin — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 18:59:23 +0000

Blinkers? Feh!

We finally have a better sense of the Derby field as the contenders begin to move into Churchill Downs in earnest; Lookin At Lucky seemed to enjoy the track, working a bullet this morning. Trainer Bob Baffert has buried the hatchet with jockey Garrett Gomez (you will recall he was not thrilled with his ride in the Santa Anita Derby) and taken a bit of advice from the rider – Lookin At Lucky will contest the Derby sans blinkers.

Eskendereya is also getting used to his new surroundings – he arrived in Louisville yesterday and stretched his legs a bit. Now that he’s officially on the block, one wonders whether he will be sold before or after the Derby – but which side wants to be the big gambler in this situation? Apparently not Todd Pletcher, who may further spread his Derby risk by entering filly Devil May Care. While a decision won’t be made immediately, I enjoyed this comment from Pletcher:

“She acts like she wants to run beyond a mile and an eighth,” Pletcher said.” That is the main reason. We’ve worked her with a number of our colts who are being considered (for the Derby) and she has worked as well or better than most of them. But there is a lot to consider, including running in a field of 20 and things like that. We’ll just wait and see after she works.”

As I cannot say I’m terribly impressed by some of the ‘other’ Derby colts in Pletcher’s barn (i.e., most of those who are not Eskendereya or Rule), she is probably a better candidate than many – but the filly I’d most like to see in the race is still Blind Luck. Still, if nothing else, by entering as many horses as he possibly can, Pletcher also ups his chances of finishing last (again).

Noble’s Promise has been considered questionable for the Derby after a rough race in the Arkansas Derby and a subsequent lung infection, but things looked encouraging after his bullet work yesterday. Kenny McPeek is still erring on the side of caution and is not committing his horse to the race, but I believe he’s worth watching; hopefully he will make the starting gate.

The usual pre-Derby jockey-change shenanigans have been afoot – Jon Court, who got longshot Line of David into the winner’s circle for the Arkansas Derby, has been replaced by red-hot Rafael Bejarano. In this case, it’s not a simple matter of creating bad karma; Bejarano had ridden the horse before, in California, and his Derby horse, Setsuko, probably will not make the field. It’s still no fun to see Jon Court sitting out the big race again, though; one suspects that Bejarano might have easily picked up another last-minute mount (presumably knocking off another lesser-known jock) – and so it goes on.

In more unpleasant news, Tiz Chrome broke down while working toward the Derby Trial; he was put down on the track. Also aiming for the Derby Trial (so far, with better results) is Eightyfiveinafifty – and a win there could send him to the Derby, which would really be kicking it old-school – Tim Tam was the last horse to win both back in 1958.

There was sad news from across the Pacific as well; 2008 Melbourne Cup winner Viewed died as a result of a twisted bowel. The 6-year-old (by Southern Hemisphere standards) stallion had been in training and was aiming to re-take the Cup before retiring to stud in another year or two – his interesting pedigree and proven staying ability are a loss to the breed in Australia (and could have been of great use here, as well – although commercial breeders would have disliked the notion).

Fortunately, across the Atlantic, Raven’s Pass seems to be recovering well after colic surgery; he will be off work for a number of weeks, but the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner should be able to return to action (as it were) shortly.
Finally, if you’re an experienced curator looking for a terribly badly-paying job, why not consider becoming Curator of Collections at the (re-opened) Kentucky Derby Museum? While the collection will be great, it’s either rather impressive or disturbing to know that there are cultural institutions that pay even more badly than my own…still, it’s a job (for someone else)!

Check back later for more Kentucky Derby Betting thoughts!

Wood Memorial & Santa Anita Derby Preview

admin — Fri, 02 Apr 2010 13:13:33 +0000

Can Eskendereya teach Todd to dance?

Todd Pletcher finally looks like he has a real Derby horse. Granted, he could have something like eight in the starting gate, but the legitimate one runs on Saturday in the Wood Memorial. Eskendereya tops what should be a great race, facing off against other top Derby hopes including Jackson Bend (with whom he has a potential rivalry forming). While it is a small field, it also features tested-on-dirt British import Awesome Act, a horse with a taste for Baileys (sorry, not that one), and Schoolyard Dreams, just barely the runner-up to Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby. Rounding out the field are Most Happy Fella (apparently named after a Standardbred, and not directly after the Frank Loesser musical) and Carnivore, who recovered from EPM last year. Always-well-beaten maiden filly Nicky Boy will not be in the picture. Despite the obvious talent on show from the main contenders, this is a race they all need – only Awesome Act already has the needed graded earnings, and he’s still near the more dangerous end of the top twenty.

Graded earnings are no concern for Lookin At Lucky, who headlines the Santa Anita Derby, but they are very much needed by his rivals in the race, including Sidney’s Candy (currently on the bubble), Caracortado, Alphie’s Bet and (blog favorite) Cardiff Giant. It would be a shame for any of them to miss out on a Derby berth due to earnings, but this is their last chance to scoop up some cash – and it’s going to be a very competitive one.

It’s going to be a great weekend all around (let’s not forget Blind Luck in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn) – enjoy!

Conspiracies and Countdowns

admin — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 18:57:21 +0000

Game on

Here’s a conspiracy theory for you – while Crisp certainly looked fine in her upset victory in the Santa Anita Oaks, it was a race Blind Luck ‘had to lose’ to stave off Derby fever – hence the change to her usual running style (and the troubled trip overall). An easy victory would have made it harder to argue that she should stick with her own sex (for now), and this keeps her on the road to the Kentucky Oaks, rather than the Derby. In all seriousness, the top three finishers all looked good – and Blind Luck, in particular, looked like she’d relish some extra distance. There’s always the Belmont…

I’m not entirely sold on the colts who ran last weekend (yet) – I liked Awesome Act’s performance in the Gotham, but I’m not quite ready to add him to my top list at present (although I have no good reason for that – I like a versatile horse who can perform on different surfaces); however, he definitely merits further consideration. The same goes for Sham winner Alphie’s Bet, the subject (along with his trainer, Alexis Barba) of a fine article by Joe Drape – I want to see how both horses look in their next starts.

The fact is that the Derby trail is simply not as compelling as what’s happening next Saturday – Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra are both making their yearly debuts. Zenyatta (pictured) has been assigned 127 pounds in the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita; while she’s carrying the high weight, she’s won with more, and the field should not offer her any trouble – she worked another bullet on Friday in preparation, and on paper, it’s another paid workout for her on Saturday.

As for Rachel Alexandra, not many have elected to take her on in the New Orleans Ladies; although she won’t be 100% fit, the field of four other mares should (in theory) still be easy pickings, even with the addition of John Sheriffs’ talented Brazilian trainee Zardana. Still, as this race is really a prep for the Apple Blossom (and it looks as though Rachel Alexandra has been bored with her layoff and needs a race), we’ll wait to see how things pan out – her last work was impressive. We’ll have more on both races as well as Lookin At Lucky’s 3-year-old debut later in the week.

Finally, while things did not pan out for St Trinians in the Big Cap, nicely won by Misremembered, another mare went against the boys and came away with a win – Proviso took home the Kilroe Mile in the final strides, becoming the first filly or mare to win the race. Formerly trained by Bobby Frankel and now in the care of Bill Mott, the British-bred bay has a starry pedigree (by Dansili, so she’s a grand-daughter of Hasili) and has finished within striking distance of Goldikova in France – perhaps she’ll prove a bigger threat in the Breeders’ Cup Mile this year…

Quick Hits

admin — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:32:24 +0000

Come get some.

We’re rather overcommitted here at Superfecta HQ this week, so updates are short and snappy (in theory).

The Breeders’ Cup is still toying with the asinine idea of holding the event at Santa Anita (or perhaps somewhere else, but they really want Santa Anita) forever and ever, amen. I would probably be excited about this if I still lived on the left coast, but as I don’t and certainly cannot afford to travel that far to said event, I hate the concept from both a business perspective as well as from a person convenience one.

Flanders, who famously beat Serena’s Song despite a broken leg, was put down as the result of a paddock accident. Oddly, it seems to have happened a few weeks ago, but the news only got out a few days ago. As ever, it’s hard to keep track of great racemares once they head to the farm (can’t someone in Kentucky make a sweep every few weeks, taking photos of Miesque, Personal Ensign and the like, so that we know what they are up to – even those who have been pensioned?), but it’s unfortunate that no one thought to let her fans know about her fate until several weeks later.

Bill Finley would like Blind Luck to follow the Winning Colors path to the Santa Anita Derby, and perhaps the one in Kentucky. So would I. She’s third on the graded earnings list – take the shot!

One distaffer definitely going against the boys will be Life Is Sweet – she will get to take a step out of stablemate Zenyatta’s shadow by running in the Dubai World Cup. You may recall she has run well in mixed company before, finishing a creditable third (especially given the traffic trouble) in the Hollywood Gold Cup last year. The last horse she finished second to, St Trinians, is also still aiming to take on the boys, but without the long trip to Dubai – she’s on track for the Santa Anita Handicap, despite ‘her curious, crab-like action‘ and uncommercial bloodlines. Both mares are set for good storylines – and, of course, Japanese star Vodka does that sort of thing all the time.

But back to the 3-year-olds – it’s hard to see how Christine Daae will pick up any graded earnings by winning allowance races, but she could meet up with Amen Hallelujah, the impressive winner of the Davona Dale, in the Bonnie Miss. It’s certainly an interesting possibility.

The 3-year-old colt picture did not get much less murkier last weekend; Radiohead proved he can run on real dirt (feel free to insert a joke about ‘fake plastic trees’ here), but beyond that, things are still a mystery. And, quite frankly, they are not (yet) as exciting to watch as the preparations for the Apple Blossom – Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta both continue to work toward their seasonal debuts on March 13th. Let’s hope Santa Anita does not have to cancel another card for rain – we’re going to have enough drama leading up to the race in April as it is…

Horses and Hoaxes

admin — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 20:15:31 +0000

Not the horse

It’s been a difficult Derby prep season so far, thanks to the weather gods; rain postponed racing in California, snow did the job in the Northeast, and finally Arkansas also fell victim to their wrath. The Southwest Stakes, scheduled for Presidents’ Day, will now be run next Saturday; whether the same field turns up will be determined later in the week when the race is redrawn. Of particular note were the top three finishers from the San Rafael: Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation [sic – but he's by Maria's Mon, it all makes sense]. While a chief objective for most will be getting a chance to see how these horses perform on traditional dirt, I am intrigued simply because Cardiff Giant is running.

And no, it’s not because I used to live in Wales – the Cardiff in question in this case is in upstate New York – it’s because I have an unhealthy interest in the history of scientific hoaxes. Let’s rewind to the 1860s: Gorillas had only been ‘discovered‘ (by white European men, that is) in the late 1840s; Darwin’s On the Origin of Species had been published in 1859, and the hunt was on for ‘missing links.’ In the Pacific Northwest, reports of something not unlike Bigfoot appeared in local newspapers during this same period – in short, it was an ideal time for someone to mix these ingredients together into a moneymaking soufleé.

Enter George Hull: after arguing with a fundamentalist minister over the literal truth of a particularly obscure Bible passage (Genesis 6:4 – ‘There were giants in the earth in those days’), he decided that not only could this notion be amusing to parody, but that it might just be a nice little earner. He set about hiring stonecutters to carve a ten-foot ‘giant’ and had the resulting sculpture shipped to his cousin’s farm, where it was subsequently buried. After letting the giant ‘age’ for nearly a year, Hull’s cousin, William Newell, hired some local men to ‘dig a well‘ – and lo, they uncovered a giant ‘petrified man.’ Immediately, crowds poured in to see this marvel – first for 25 cents a head, then double that.

While scientists immediately pronounced the Cardiff Giant a fake, a number of the fundamentalist preachers Hull had originally set out to poke fun at defended it as legitimate – and the public did not seem to care either way, and kept coming. Hull sold his share of the Giant for $37,500 – not a bad return on a $2,600 investment, especially in 1869 – to a group of businessmen who moved it to Syracuse. Upon getting wind of the sensation, P.T. Barnum got into the act and offered $60,000 to exhibit the Giant for three months; when he was turned down, he simply made his own and displayed it in Manhattan. Hull was forced to confess his scheme when the owners of ‘his’ Giant sued Barnum for claiming that their fake was a fake – but public interest continued nonetheless, and the Cardiff Giant spawned several similar offspring before fading into obscurity early in the 20th century.

In any event it’s a fantastic name for a racehorse – if he does, indeed, become very successful this year, I hope we can look forward to his offspring with names like Feejee Mermaid, Oak Island and Piltdown Man. If only someone would name a racehorse for Kaspar Hauser, I could continue to be distracted from things like Sidney’s Candy’s fine win in the San Vincente, or Blind Luck’s determination to win despite a terrible ride or the successful return of Munnings…

Quality Road, Court Vision and Some 3-Year-Olds…

admin — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 15:20:47 +0000

Quality Road

While discussion continues apace over the possibility of a Zenyatta-Rachel Alexandra matchup at Oaklawn, some of their potential competitors in the older horse division are looking to burnish their credentials this weekend. Musket Man, who finished a reasonably creditable third behind Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, will return in the Super Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. The competition won’t be quite of the same caliber, but as it’s his first race since the Preakness, it’s a good way to ease back in. The seven-furlong distance may be more his cup of tea as well – despite good finishes in both the Derby and Preakness, he looks like he might excel as a sprinter/miler.

And while the race is flying a bit under the radar, the Strub could have some eventual Santa Anita Handicap implications. Misremembered is looking like the likely favorite, but there it also features a few talented horses aiming to get back into the big leagues, notably Square Eddie. The race goes off after the Robert B. Lewis for 3-year-olds, and is being somewhat eclipsed by it – but we’ll look at that shortly.

Also on Saturday, Quality Road is taking on a slightly tougher field in the Donn Handicap. And while I still think Quality Road’s best distance is one mile, he should have no difficulty with the 1 1/8 mile distance here – nor should he have too much trouble with the field. That’s not to say there are not some nice horses in it – Dry Martini can step up on occasion, and the same is true of Delightful Kiss. I’m curious to see if Duke of Mischief comes into his own to trouble the favorite; it should be an interesting race. One hopes that Quality Road will continue with his recent good gate behavior.

On Sunday, Richard’s Kid is looking to return to winning form in the San Antonio; he did not show much last time out, but neither did Gabby’s Golden Gal before her last win – clearly, she just needed a race, and the same is likely true of Richard’s Kid. It’s also got an interesting field, with Mast Track (now trained by John Sheriffs), Nownownow and American-bred, British-trained Giganticus, who is trying his luck at US racing for the first time.

Moving to the turf, Court Vision headlines the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap on Sunday; while he has proven very effective indeed on the grass, he may be tested by Never On Sunday. The French-bred son of Sunday Break has not won since last May (nor run at all since October), but he’s been taking on very serious competition in the form of Vision d’Etat and Goldikova overseas; this may prove comparatively easy for him. But Take the Points also looks strong, and Yate’s Black Cat has to win a race sometime, right? Granted, he never has, but…

And so to the 3-year-olds – both the boys and girls are in action this weekend. Blind Luck seems to have scared off much of the competition in the Las Virgenes; trainer Michael Talla, who sends out the interesting Crisp, noted that:

“Racing against Blind Luck is challenging in the sense that she’s the second-best three-year-old on the West Coast. The first one is Lookin At Lucky,” Sadler said. “We’re up against it, but you’ve got to get them started.”

I also like La Nez in this race (although she is likely to scratch if it rains), but I hope to see Blind Luck continue her winning ways; it would be pleasant indeed to see her turn up in a Triple Crown race, given that she’s been nominated, just in case the filly division looks too weak for her.

The rain and a slight temperature have kept the aforementioned Lookin At Lucky in the barn, but his rivals (including his stablemate, Tiz Chrome) are getting things going in the Robert B. Lewis. American Lion also contests this race, and it should start to clear up the 3-year-old male picture a bit – at least for California.

On Sunday, Derby preps shift to the turf as Interactif starts his year in the Hallendale Beach at Gulfstream. My chief interest in Interactif is that he’s out of a Broad Brush mare – it would be nice to see that line continue. I also like the notion of turf horses successfully switching to dirt – the more versatility, the better.

Finally, let’s return to the Apple Blossom possibility for a moment; by the seeming lack of involvement by the racing Powers That Be, we have avoided the embarrassment of seeing them proclaim ‘Girl Power!’ (thusly) – at least for the time being.

Breeders’ Cup 2009: Juvenile Fillies

admin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 01:46:00 +0000

#, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, ML odds

1 Zilva, H. Graham Motion, J. Rose, 30-1
4th in the Alcibiades; taller order here.

2 Ms Vanenzza, Juan Vasquez, J. Rocco, 30-1
Beat Juvenile Turf entrant Potosina in the Blue Hen Stakes.

3 Blind Luck, Jerry Hollendorfer, T. Baze, 3-1
2nd in the G1 Debutante, won the G1 Oak Leaf (pictured); very tough here.

4 Beautician, Kenneth McPeek, R. Albarado, 6-1
Has been competitive, but doesn’t have a win – yet.

5 Bickersons, Kelly Breen, J. Rosario, 20-1
Twice 3rd in G1 company – but also lacking a win.

6 Connie and Michael, Kenneth McPeek, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
Impressive in her win at Keeneland, but it’s still early days.

7 Devil May Care, Todd A. Pletcher, J. Velazquez, 8-1
Winner of the Frizette; will she take to the Polytrack?

8 She Be Wild, Wayne M. Catalano, J. Leparoux, 8-1
G3 winner and G1-placed; has talent.

9 Champagne d’Oro, John Daley, M. Garcia, 50-1
DQ’d from a win in August, 8th in the Del Mar Futurity – would need luck.

10 Negligee, John P. Terranova II , R. Maragh, 6-1
Alcibiades winner seems to be on the improve.

11 Always a Princess, Bob Baffert, G. Gomez, 6-1
2nd in the Oak Leaf Stakes, interesting pedigree.

12 Biofuel, Reade Baker, E. Da Silva, 15-1
G3 winner in Canada; has yet to establish consistent pattern, but that’s not unexpected.

Picks: Blind Luck, Always a Princess, Negligee, She Be Wild