Superfectablog v3.0 » Anak Nakal

Fantasy Horse Racing?

admin — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:37:00 +0000

I enjoyed Joe Drape’s column in the Times regarding the ongoing medication and safety issues in American racing and would love to see some of these ideas taken much further. However, I do wonder about his suggestion that should British-based Mafaaz win the Derby on hay, oats and water we’d see a collective return to basics – it didn’t happen after Raven’s Pass won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but perhaps we’re just slow over here and need repeated reminders. It’s an interesting notion.

There will be plenty of drug-free horses running in Dubai this weekend; the World Cup is almost upon us. It’s something of a quiet US contingent this year (at least compared to Curlin last year), with Albertus Maximus, Arson Squad and Well Armed heading the American charge in the big race (along with, somewhat oddly, Anak Nakal). Indian Blessing will be taking on the boys in the Golden Shaheen (although one hopes she’ll dress more appropriately for the event than My Little Slave Princess Leia) and Gayego appears in the Godolphin Mile. Post positions will be determined on Wednesday, and we’ll have much more on each race later in the week.

There may also some American horses trying their luck in Britain later this spring – Kenny McPeek’s Dream Empress and Striking Dancer will take aim at the Epsom Oaks (largely, it seems, because we have no equivalent mile-and-a-half turf race for them Stateside). It is possible Theregoesjojo will point to that Derby, rather than its Kentucky counterpart – it sounds almost as though he and Mafaaz may simply switch places.

Check back later this week for more on the Florida Derby and the Dubai World Cup…

Big Weekend at Gulfstream

admin — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:54:00 +0000

This weekend’s highlight for me is Einstein’s 2009 debut in the Donn Handicap; trainer Helen Pitts-Blasi warns that Gulfstream’s track is not his favorite dirt surface, but I think it’s great they are giving him a challenge, rather than going for the three-peat in the Gulfstream Park Turf. (Obviously adding that G1 victory to his already-impressive resume would be no bad thing either, and the higher purse doesn’t hurt). He’ll have plenty of competition, though – Albertus Maximus and Arson Squad should both be worthy competitors and this race seems like it’s coming up way too tough for Anak Nakal and Great Hunter, but I would not be surprised to see either one improve with age – just not quite as much as Einstein (pictured) has.

While I cannot claim to be pleased about shortening the Turf to 1 1/8, it will have an interesting field; Red Rocks and Kip Deville may be the big names, but I am intrigued to see Court Vision here; he may have underwhelmed for much of his 3-year-old year, but he’s been training well lately and could be a late bloomer. I also have an eye on Uigur, who hails from South America (although, of course, the Uigur people he takes his name from are from Central Asia). The Brazilian-bred has a local G1 to his credit and it will be curious to see how that translates. Feel free to point out here that Tomcito has been back on the worktab in largely average fashion.

And, of course, there are the 3-year-olds. The Hutcheson and the Holy Bull will likely both be overlooked by the mainstream media for the maiden special weight in between the Holy Bull and the Donn – for a little value in that race, Andiron is of interest; he’s a half-brother to The Cliff’s Edge, and you can bet (as it were) that plenty of money will be riding on Nicanor – here’s hoping both well-bred horses make forward progress in their young careers, and a little excitement about a ‘normal’ race is no bad thing.

The Hutcheson is run this afternoon and features another ‘brother’ – Hello Broadway is a half to Nobiz Like Shobiz, but he’ll have plenty to handle in Break Water Edison and Capt. Candyman Can – both of whom seem promising. The Holy Bull is the 3-year-old feature Saturday and if you’re looking for a decent return on a Michael-Matz-trained horse, this might be your best shot. His Rockland is taking a step up in class here, but the son of Smarty Jones has two victories and hasn’t been out of the money yet. West Side Bernie and Beethoven are apparently keeping the weekend’s musical theme going for this race. I feel like I should work in a terrible Broadway pun at this point, but I will spare you this time around. For now.

Anak Nakal in Race-Win Shock

admin — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 15:01:00 +0000

Perpetual underachiever Anak Nakal (pictured) finally stepped it up over the holiday weekend to take the Pennsylvania Derby and rewarded his backers at 16-1. I’ve always liked his pedigree but had more or less given up on seeing him return to the winner’s circle. I can’t say it was the strongest field ever assembled for the race, but in any event it was nice to see Joe Bravo get the win.

Curlin had to work harder than expected in the Woodward, but it sounds as though the Classic may be back on the agenda; let’s recall that a start at Saratoga was previously verboten as well, thanks to its reputation:

Curlin did not impress everyone on Saturday, but Saratoga is notorious as “the graveyard of champions” and Jackson laid it on with a trowel. “Aside from the Dubai race and the Breeders’ Cup, this is the most important race we’ve won, because of its historic nature, and its premier contribution to Curlin’s legacy,” he said. “Good horses like Man O’War and Secretariat had problems here. That’s an honour roll of some of the greatest. I’m glad Curlin showed he was up to it.”

Indeed, it sounds as though plans for Curlin still include another trip abroad post-Breeders-Cup (or possibly instead of), if all goes well:

Jackson left the door ajar to Santa Anita, acknowledging that “the perfect scenario” would be to go for both the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup – as he did last year – and then on to Japan in November. But he implied that this schedule would ask too much of the horse.

It would certainly be another feather in his cap if he could pull it off. And in case you were wondering, the foot wasn’t bothering Racehorse of the Year Weekend Hussler at all.

Saratoga Showers

admin — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 15:32:00 +0000

While she obviously didn’t like the slop at Saratoga the other day (finishing last after tying up in the Schuylerville, which was won by Jardin), Ocean Colors is still very much on my ‘watch’ list. Bill Finley’s article on her prior to the race is well worth checking out; here’s hoping for a more successful return next time out. As to the 2-year-old boys, it seems all we can say at this point is that Desert Party doesn’t mind a little mud and traffic.

Visionaire is a winner again; he seems much more comfortable as a sprinter/miler and his win yesterday against some respectable older horses including Street Magician and Out of Gwedda earns him a start in the King’s Bishop. It’s sort of a mini Win and You’re In.

The Win and You’re In issue is being much discussed at Saratoga; the Times Union argues that it should mean that the Breeders’ Cup entry fee is waived for winners of designated races. I’ve gone back and forth on it myself; I don’t think any of the already-nominated horses should get a free pass (nor do I think regally-bred foals won’t be nominated), but for the ex-claimer from nowhere who gets in by a fluke (and let’s face it, it’s going to be a comparatively rare, if easy to promote, storyline), go ahead and let them join the party for free.

In any event, this should be a fun weekend – Da’ Tara returns in the Jim Dandy (as does stablemate Anak Nakal) on Sunday, but before that Nick Zito also sends out his old warhorse Commentator in the Whitney. I also have an eye on Solar Flare, a recent import from Argentina now in the care of Larry Jones, and am curious to see which Grasshopper shows up for the race.

In addition, Ginger Punch looks pretty unbeatable in the Go for Wand, even though she will be carrying a lot of weight, and Thor’s Echo is back Stateside for the Vanderbilt.

Meanwhile, across the pond, Aiden O’Brien seems unable to lose; he has Duke Of Marmalade running on Saturday in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and Glorious Goodwood kicks off next week, with Henrythenavigator looking to clean up in the Sussex Stakes. Also of note in the article is that ‘underperforming‘ fixtures on the British racing calendar have been axed, so that even with new races added, the total number is down. Imagine if all (well, more of) American racing were short, high-quality meetings like Saratoga…

Broken Dreams and Tax Breaks

admin — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 16:36:00 +0000

Thanks in no small part to our excellent seats in the shade, I had quite a nice Belmont day, which is presumably more than can be said for Big Brown. (I should note that thanks also go to Ventura, Zaftig, J Be K, Silver Edition and Dancing Forever for making our day fairly profitable).

Yes, the heat was oppressive and yes, the lines for the bathrooms were long (at least those that were actually functional), but it was not nearly as packed as the Smarty Jones-Birdstone installment had been; I never had trouble getting to the windows. Some of the concession stands seemed to run out of food and drink around eighth race, so I’m not sure exactly what sort of advance planning went on, given that the crowd was considerably smaller than it had been in 2004, but there you are.

I had the pleasure of seeing some of my fellow bloggers in person, which more than made up for Better Talk Now missing out on the Manhattan (which, given the tough field and his age, was not exactly a shocking loss – I didn’t need to go far to find a reason).

It would seem that Michael Ivarone would like to blame the track for Big Brown’s loss (at least that’s today’s excuse):

“I’m understanding they had an issue without water and they weren’t able to water the track and it got deep, I don’t know. We’re perplexed, nobody can figure this one out, the horse did not displace (his palate), he scoped fine, there’s no mucous, everything is ice cold. The horse that won, (Big Brown) had beaten him by 23 (lengths) in the Florida Derby and so, I don’t know. We just have to watch him carefully and make sure we didn’t miss anything. “

I presume he did not notice them watering the track throughout the day (I certainly had a fine view of it), including just before and after the Manhattan — sometimes, you just lose (and that’s a feeling that should be familiar to a penny stock trader). While I would not be thrilled about running in such heat, the only other favorite who had a bad day was Ready’s Image in the Woody Stephens (and even that was won by a horse with short odds), so that did not seem to be much of a factor either. On the whole, favorites were not embarrassing themselves elsewhere on the card, so I’d still be inclined to chalk Big Brown’s performance up to a simply having an off day.

Having learned from Smarty Jones, I did bet the Nick Zito longshot — unfortunately, the wrong one (although in my defense, Anak Nakal’s odds were longer at that point — Da’Tara drifted upward shortly thereafter), but I admit it was rather pleasing to see Zito get the job done again (and in the same manner).

Big Brown looked great in the paddock and very professional during the post parade but was certainly rank early on in the race — more than anything, that was what seemed to cost him energy (at least from my vantage point) — one wonders what might have happened if he’d been allowed to have his own way (given that most Triple Crown winners led wire to wire); I think he would at least have gotten up for 3rd or 4th, even with an empty tank.

But hey, there’s still that equine hospital to fall back on; the good people of IEAH are seeking tax breaks for what should be a very profitable venture even now — obviously, life goes on…

On the drive back, we were joking that Big Brown probably went straight from the track onto a van bound for Three Chimneys; given the fact that they are sure to find something wrong with him when going over him with a fine-toothed comb (he is a horse, after all), in reality I’m sure it won’t be a long wait, which is a shame. Top-level American racehorses don’t seem to be allowed the odd bad day their counterparts elsewhere in the world have.

Not everyone failed to live up to expectations over the weekend — Zarkava (pictured) turned in another outstanding performance (and hey, Christophe Soumillion annoyed The Guardian with ‘unwelcome showboating from the winning jockey’) in the Prix de Diane to remain unbeaten (you can watch the video here); she will likely now point toward the Arc. And that, indeed, is something to look forward to.

The Belmont Undercard and Beyond

admin — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 15:47:00 +0000

It’s not quite a Breeders’ Cup card, but there is a lot to like on the Belmont undercard. There are some interesting betting races but I am most looking forward to seeing some of my favorite horses in action.

True North Handicap
Rick Dutrow’s other favorite on the card, Benny the Bull, is back from Dubai. TBA favorite Thor’s Echo is also back from a break, now with blinkers on. The half-blind Storm in May is a longshot in this race (and deservedly so, given his recent form), but I could see him getting up to show. I also like Suave Jazz and hope he gets a piece of the action, but it’s a tough field.

Just a Game Stakes
My favorites for this are chalky as can be – Criminologist, Vacare and Lady of Venice. Still, if Ventura’s odds remain in double-digits near post time, I may put some money on her; I don’t like overlooking Bobby Frankel-trained turf mares anywhere, but especially not at Belmont.

Acorn Stakes
Welcome back, Indian Blessing! This won’t be much of a betting race on paper, but I’m looking forward to seeing the aforementioned filly return.

Woody Stephens Stakes
I like a few longshots in this race — Majestic Warrior and Fatal Bullet. Ready’s Image and J Be K are worthy favorites, but perhaps this will be the race with a little value.

Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap
First, I’m very annoyed that Einstein won’t be in this race — thanks again, Midnight Cry! Perhaps they can decorate their jail cells with their expired NY licenses. But I digress; this race is still loaded, most notably with fan favorite Better Talk Now (pictured). Last year I was sure he was a little past his best and he got up to win this race — here’s hoping he does it again. It’s going to be a tall order, though, with talent like Out of Control, Proudinsky and Dancing Forever in the picture. I also believe Shakis and Stream of Gold have been underperforming and could suddenly get it together tomorrow. It should be a great race in its own right; much more than an able warm-up for the main event. I’m still not drinking this, though.

Belmont Stakes
And as to the Belmont itself, if Casino Drive is out (and I hope he is not), I see little standing in Big Brown’s way — but I will be placing some longshot bets on Denis of Cork, Anak Nakal, Icabad Crane and possibly Tale of Ekati, just in case.

Here’s one prediction I can with utter certainty: I won’t be able to do a post-race update until Monday, as I will be busy Sunday watching the US take on Argentina in a friendly at Giants Stadium. This one really is a foregone conclusion: we’re going to lose, and lose big.

See you in New York…

Belmont Post Positions

admin — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 16:02:00 +0000

I don’t believe that post position is usually much of a factor in the Belmont; while in theory Big Brown could get boxed in behind traffic from the 1, he should have enough natural ability to overcome such adversity.

However, the strategy in the Belmont often seems to be to get the favorite to run all out from the start — just ask Smarty Jones. Either scenario is possible, but Smarty Jones also faced a field with more depth to it (even if you believe the talents of some those horses might not have been employed in a strictly sporting fashion) — Big Brown may only have one or two horses in this field who can stay with him for very long.

So, without further ado, your Belmont contenders:

1 Big Brown – Putting his connections and his quarter crack aside, bad racing luck is his major enemy. He has had a charmed existence so far, but the best horse certainly does not necessarily win in this race (see Bid, Spectacular) – it’s his to lose.

2 Guadalcanal – A maiden in the Belmont – call Kenny Mayne! Allegedly he wants the distance, but I see others crossing the wire ahead of him.

3 Macho Again – Nice to see that ~~Julien Leparoux~~ Garrett Gomez has picked up the mount; he’s talented, and strange things do happen in the Belmont.

4 Denis of Cork – I really like how he’s been training lately — I would love to see him maintain double-digit odds. I’ll say no more.

5 Casino Drive – The real potential history-maker in the race, and not just for his dam – seeing a drug-free, foreign-trained horse win the Belmont would send a useful message to the industry.

6 Da’Tara – Is he a rabbit for Anak Nakal? Sure, Nick Zito is dangerous in the Belmont with longshots, but I don’t think this is the one.

7 Tale of Ekati – His last workout was better, but I don’t like how he had been working out up to that point. I like the bottom half of his pedigree a lot more than the top at this distance.

8 Anak Nakal – He’s done nothing all year to warrant any attention — no question. However, his recent workouts have been good and his pedigree is ideal for the Belmont. Maybe he’ll finally get it together – I will include him in exotics and will probably bet him to place and show.

9 Ready’s Echo – Another one whose pedigree seems to be half sprint, half route; he could round out a superfecta, or he could finish ninth.

10 Icabad Crane – I think he is likely running for second, and I can certainly see him hitting the board.

Big Drama

admin — Tue, 27 May 2008 13:57:00 +0000

While much of the news over the long weekend focused on Big Brown’s latest quarter crack (Fran’s HoofBlog will be getting more details direct from his farrier later in the week, so keep checking for updates), the rumors over who will ride Casino Drive continue to swirl. Garrett Gomez is now definitely out of that picture, though — he’s replacing Julien Leparoux aboard Macho Again. A decision is expected Wednesday for Casino Drive; my money is on Edgar Prado.

Big Brown did jog over the Belmont track today (right), so one would assume his foot is not giving him much, if any, trouble; one wonders if some of the drama over his foot might be more of a Rick Dutrow mind game than anything else; it’s an obvious excuse to fall back on if things do not go to plan on Belmont day.

Other Belmont contenders were working over the weekend; Anak Nakal(!) worked a bullet at Saratoga, Denis of Cork put in five furlongs at Churchill Downs, Tale of Ekati worked at Belmont, although Barclay Tagg was apparently less than pleased with his effort and it sounds as though his plan may change. Tomcito, now recovered from his myectomy, jogged at Belmont as well.

In other news, The Tin Man is apparently doing reasonably well in retirement after a worrying time following a knee fracture, although he’s still hampered by the injury. Here’s hoping he can enjoy a healthy retirement nonetheless.

Finally, like the good people at Railbird, I was particularly intrigued by a maiden special weight over the Belmont turf last Saturday. 3-year-old Monastic Springs, the first foal for great racemare Ipi Tombe, dealt with traffic problems like an old pro — winning in his first start. I may have a new favorite 3-year-old — here is his debut race:

Derby Post Position Draw – First Reaction

admin — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 22:26:00 +0000

Some initial post position draw thoughts:

1) LeRoy Neiman and Todd Pletcher, together at last!
2) The ‘homemade’ signs – how authentic!
3) Nice to see Visionaire in post 8.
4) Big Brown in 20 – no thanks.
5) The wind! The wind hates the draw!
6) I’m liking the middle of the pack a lot.
7) Big Truck is a longer price than Anak Nakal or Z Humor? Huh?
I presume UPS is enjoying all this free publicity.

Check back later for some actual handicapping…

A Wide Open Wood?

admin — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 14:21:00 +0000

It is true that War Pass comes into the Wood Memorial looking for ‘redemption‘ – but he’s certainly not the only one. He’s facing a group of horses who are in similar situations, albeit with a less intense light shined on them. Barclay Tagg sends out the lately-underperforming Tale of Ekati; he’s been working bullets and clearly needs a good finish if he is to progress to the Derby. also has a last-place finish last time out to overcome and neither Giant Moon, Anak Nakal nor Court Vision has lived up to their two-year-old promise (so far). Also flying under the radar is Texas Wildcatter – he’s been finishing well against other Derby probables like Visionaire and seems to hit the board more often than not.

However, the star attraction in the race is clearly War Pass – and it’s do-or-die time (oddly, the list of ‘bad things’ that happened to him prior to or during the Tampa Bay Derby seems to have grown, now minus the controversial midweek fever):

“It’s going to be a day filled with a lot of apprehension and stress,” says [owner Robert] LaPenta of the 11/8-mile Wood. “We’re really looking forward to seeing which War Pass shows up.”

Almost everything went wrong that could go wrong in Tampa. The son of Cherokee Run reared up in the starting gate, then was pinched back by the horses beside him at the start. He could not take his accustomed lead and had nothing left for the stretch run. That caused LaPenta to believe he might have displaced his palate, which would cause serious breathing problems.

…

“If he runs a very competitive race Saturday, he should go on to the Kentucky Derby,” LaPenta says. “If he runs a very poor race, I would say something is wrong, and we’d have to find out what. We’d have to go back to the drawing board.”

My own take is that even if the ‘real’ War Pass shows up, gets his preferred wire-to-wire run and wins, the Derby is still not his ideal race – he would probably be a very consistent, perhaps even top class, dirt miler – but that’s not where the spotlight goes. Nevertheless, he’s the horse with the most to prove in this race, and anything less than a win or a close second isn’t going to do him any favors.

I would like to see a good race from Tale of Ekati (partially because his bandwagon was one of the few I considered last year) as I think he’s more talented than we’ve seen so far. I also believe Giant Moon could be a legitimate contender if the weather holds – after his miserable finish in the Gotham (which was essentially run in a river), he needs the graded earnings badly.

I am curious to see Court Vision as I believe he was a bit unlucky last time out, and the addition of his rabbit, Inner Light, could certainly be problematic for War Pass. My ardor for Anak Nakal has long since cooled (although I can’t blame Nick Zito for giving him another shot – or for wanting to have ‘another’ horse in this race).

My prediction (barring a deluge) is:
Tale of Ekati
War Pass
Giant Moon/Texas Wildcatter

Kentucky Derby winning odds