And it’s always good fun to see the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners face off (especially when the winning margin was so slight in the second race), so it’s great that both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford are moving forward and looking well (and hey, their brothers are barn-mates). But they are hardly the only horses running at Belmont Park on Saturday – Belmont Stakes day is often something of an early preview for Breeders’ Cup day(s), and the other major races are well worth watching:

Acorn
It’s always nice to see Bobby Flay with a horse in a big race, and his filly Her Smile has very attractive morning line odds – of course, the last time I backed her she was well-beaten. Her odds are also not surprising given Turbulent Descent’s presence here; it’s tough to see her losing, but, of course, that’s why they run.

True North
The brothers Dutrow each have a horse here; Rick has D’Funnybone, while Tony has This Ones for Phil; both horses are owned by Paul Pompa. Trappe Shot looks strong here, as does Calibrachoa, but I like longshot Khan of Khans – how can you not like a horse with such a Shatnerian name?

Woody Stephens
It’s coming up a bit light this year, but we have another family set of trainers here: the great Allen Jerkins has Bold Warrior, while son Jimmy has favored Arch Traveler. Jerkins junior seems to have the edge in this race.

Woodford Reserve
This should be good fun; Gio Ponti is back Stateside, but this is no easy welcome home; Prince Will I Am is here, as is Viscount Nelson, who has, of late, finally figured out how to win. But the real story should be Gio Ponti – he’s done so much in his career, and is still in training at 6, which is something that can be said of very few stallions. He should be getting a lot of press coverage, but alas, we still can’t seem to warm to turf horses who (mostly) stick to turf in the US; I hope he comes back with a win.

And so, of course, to the big race -

Predictions: 1) Animal Kingdom 2) Master of Hounds 3) Nehro 4) Shackleford

The Allaire DuPont sees Life At Ten back in action against Payton d’Oro and Decelerator (though a win from her would be interesting if I end up bringing a small date to the Preakness – at least, if we’re spotted by D. Wayne Lukas) – that should be a good race. The Gallorette is coming up a little weak this year (beyond Shared Account – like Animal Kingdom, she’s a Graham Motion trainee), but the William Donald Schaefer Memorial will be fun, with Icabad Crane, Pleasant Prince, Apart and Colizeo facing off. The Dixie is a race on which I always lose money, but can that happen this year with Paddy O’Prado coming back in it?

More importantly, will my two-race betting/winning streak continue in the Preakness?  I will very probably be tweeting live from Pimlico – why not follow along to find out?

Predictions: Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Sway Away, Shackleford
Longshot: Sway Away (especially if he stays near his morning line odds)

Archarcharch
I couldn’t believe his odds in the Arkansas Derby – he looked like the class of the race to me, and he repaid my faith by single-handedly replenishing my Twin Spires account. I’m very excited to see him on Kentucky Derby day; he’s at the top of my list.  I also see a lot of scope for Arch³ t-shirts.  You’re welcome.

Pants On Fire
I’ve really come around to this colt, and not just for the Rosie Napravnik angle (although it’s fabulous to see a local/female jockey with a live Derby shot) – but as with so many this year, he’s hardly run. I’ll still be rooting for both horse and jockey.

Animal Kingdom
I love his pedigree (for turf, but it’s entirely possible he’ll be a triple threat), I like Graham Motion; I hate how lightly-raced he is. Motion also has Toby’s Corner, so if Animal Kingdom does not take to the dirt, he’s got another one.

Master of Hounds
While I’d rather see Khawlah, the filly who beat him in the UAE Derby, make the long flight from Europe, if ever it seems a year that a European-based horse has a good shot, it’s this year; the fact that he has experience at Churchill Downs (although, granted, over the turf track – I’m simply factoring in his experience with the crowds and atmosphere) makes him all the more interesting to watch. Sure, he looks like he belongs on Polytrack or the grass, but he may be the only one left running at the end.

Uncle Mo
This was unlike Afleet Alex’s last-place finish in the Rebel, when it was clear something was amiss with an already-quite-accomplished horse; it seems that Uncle Mo’s abbreviated schedule has either left him without the requisite fitness, or he simply does not want the distance. I have a great deal of respect for his owner and his ideas for the sport, but it would have been nice to see the horse run more often before this point. Is it possible there is a reason he has not? That said, Uncle Mo’s Abbreviated Schedule sounds like a great name for a hipster band – someone should get on that (and send me some checks).

It was encouraging to see Astrology’s connections opt for a different path for their horse – it would be nice if more were taking that approach and letting their horses find a better path to (hopefully) a longer and more winning career.

If the prep races couldn’t deliver a meaningful Derby favorite by this point, I’m all in favor of leaving up to 1980s cult films to do it for us – or I’m content to wait for Derby day.

Finally, we shall bring order out of chaos!

First, the good news; Zenyatta’s delayed 5-year-old debut showed that the big mare has not lost any conditioning – she’s still doing her own little dressage competition in the post parade and then dawdling at the back of the pack before blowing by the field. It seems that every race really is the same for the undefeated champ. As impressive and effortless as her acceleration is, it would be so much more interesting to see her hook up with a true peer. Despite some encouraging comments after the race that she could face some stiffer competition, it seem that she will rather be pointed toward (to put it in ‘American Idol’ parlance) safe places.

Like Dana, I’m hoping to see something a little more unexpected in the long run – more people deserve to know who Zenyatta is, but beating up on SoCal mares isn’t the way to achieve wider recognition. A Breeders’ Cup showdown with Rachel Alexandra could be great indeed, but it would be even better to see them meet up on neutral ground first. Certainly new owner Jess Jackson wasn’t particularly interested in taking Rachel Alexandra to Santa Anita (given Curlin’s lackluster effort on Pro-Ride) unless it meant a crack at Einstein, Well Armed and the other big boys. (And I must confess that if Rachel Alexandra were to pull a Zarkava and beat older males, I’d be forever in awe).

Speaking of Rachel Alexandra, there’s still no word as to whether or not she will be Belmont-bound; given the way she is working it sounds as though she wants to go. Some have argued that in recent years a Belmont victory spells career doom, although I would argue that there’s a world of difference between a horse like Rachel Alexandra and, say, Sarava or Da’Tara. Afleet Alex was likely injured in the Preakness yet won the Belmont anyway and Empire Maker was rushed off to stud after the Jim Dandy (although you could probably also make the ‘rush to the breeding shed after minor injury’ argument about Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones – even Rags to Riches). Jazil had the breeding, but he probably still falls into the ‘freak longshot win’ category. While it’s true in recent years that Belmont winners have not, on the whole, done much beyond perhaps participating in the Travers, that seems to be due to a combination of two factors – early retirement when the horse is at its perceived peak financial value (these are, usually, stallions we are speaking about, after all) and fewer legitimate winners with distance pedigrees. Whether Rachel Alexandra goes or not, we can at least take heart that Mine That Bird won’t be shipping directly from Belmont to a stud farm.

And thus back to my favorite hard-knocking gelding – Brass Hat finally proved that he can win on turf (with a little help from the seemingly ever-present Calvin Borel). Unlike many of the horses mentioned above who were spirited off to retirement with injuries that would have earned them a little rest and a subsequent return in the past, Brass Hat continues to demonstrate that it takes more than a few potentially life-threatening injuries to keep him down. Just think – when Brass Hat was foaled in 2001, Rachel Alexandra’s sire, Megaglia d’Oro had yet to make his 2-year-old debut – and Mine That Bird’s sire, Birdstone, had just been born a week earlier. In horse racing career lifespan terms, Brass Hat practically has his own TARDIS – he’s even got a year on fellow time traveler Einstein. Long may he continue.

There was still more high-quality racing over the weekend – Bribon won the Met Mile at Belmont and Thorn Song took the Shoemaker Mile in California, but a pall was cast over events by the injury to veteran jockey Rene Douglas. This article explains the accident in some detail, while this somewhat unfortunately-titled Thoroughbred Times article, ‘Theriot suspended, Born to Be euthanized’ fills in the blanks about the filly involved.

I recommend a read of the Paulick Report commentary about the role of the stewards in these sorts of incidents; it’s an overdue discussion in my opinion and while it acknowledges the part played by jockey Jamie Theriot in the accident, it’s evident there is plenty of blame to go around elsewhere. One hopes something positive may come out of that.

While those efforts are not going to help Rene Douglas walk again, you can get involved in a number of activities being organized to assist his family via a Facebook group or you might consider a donation to the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund. Hopefully Douglas will not be joining their ranks, but it’s certainly a worthy cause.

I am curious to see how Papa Clem handles Old Fashioned; he’s already finished a distant second to the other Larry Jones trainee, Friesan Fire, but I think he’s a better horse than his one-win record might suggest – I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on him. After all, he’s finished in front of I Want Revenge…

Danger to Society may indeed be a danger here, although I’m not convinced the rest of the field is particularly strong – Poltergeist is back for another shot here too, but he finished a very well-beaten third in the Rebel. The real question is whether Win Willy will continue with his winning ways – should Old Fashioned lose again on Saturday, he’ll need a solid excuse (unless, of course, it’s all a part of a conspiracy to get great odds on both Jones horses – Old Fashioned loses a few, Friesan Fire trains for seven weeks – instant odds improvement!).

Big Brown, by contrast, has so far lived up to his hype, and in some style. I would have been impressed had he just gotten up for third or fourth, given his post position — winning, and by the margin he did, was proof enough that not only is he talented, he can overcome adversity that might flummox a more seasoned horse. In my opinion, the biggest question mark over him now is whether his fragile feet will serve him well enough to get through the Triple Crown grind; we already know he’s versatile enough to win on dirt or turf, and that the normal ‘rules’ about experience don’t seem to apply.

Even the overseas press was impressed by his effort — while acknowledging that such talk was rather premature, the Independent looked forward to the prospect of Big Brown taking on Curlin. They also brought up that touchy little subject of Rick Dutrow, Steve Asmussen and the drugs, noting that it might be somewhat overlooked in the American racing press:

Yet it would be dishonest not to acknowledge the uncomfortable bond [Dutrow] shares with Steve Asmussen, trainer of Curlin – albeit it is safe to assume few observers will be doing so. Both men, in their time, have served suspensions for use of illegal medication. Both have always denied any malpractice, but their blemished history guarantees them a certain notoriety. The American racing culture, after all, continues to wrestle with its conscience over drugs policy, and its militant elements will not rest easy until all trainers are formally confined to a regime of hay, oats and water.

Regardless, there seems little doubt that both Asmussen and Dutrow are unusually talented horsemen. And it would be surprising if petty jealousies had not contributed to suspicions about their methods. Dutrow’s depiction as an unconventional type is often intended in a wholly complimentary sense, while the majority owner of Curlin, Jess Jackson, has become a beacon of the campaign for probity in the bloodstock world.

Read into that what you will, but it’s probably one of the fairer treatments of the situation.

As to the other Florida Derby runners, Smooth Air was businesslike in getting second; he just had no chance against the winner. After a very disappointing effort, Elysium Fields is likely off the Derby trail; Majestic Warrior cemented my impression that he peaked at 2 (so can we please stop breeding for that?) and Face the Cat was never a factor.

I was, however, impressed by Tomcito’s performance (despite the fact you could hardly see him onscreen when Big Brown was busy winning) in getting up for third despite a 4-month layoff and being a bit slow at the break — for his first start against this competition, he demonstrated that he belonged. Whether anyone can beat Big Brown just now (Dutrow says no), is another question, but if anyone is going to come from behind to win the Derby this year, he’d be well-placed to do so. I’m leaning toward Big Brown, Pyro and Tomcito now as my top three Derby contenders.